The final UFC card of 2024 offers no shortage of intriguing matchups for bettors and DFS players to sink their teeth into. We'll break down every fight on the 13-bout slate, including a veteran looking to show he still belongs and a kickboxer who must play the matador against an explosive opponent. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Josefine Knutsson ($8,900)
Piera Rodriguez is a fighter who excels if allowed to be the hammer but struggles against opponents who will make her fight defensively. Knutsson will march "La Fiera" down from the opening bell while implementing a superior wrestling attack. This makes it difficult to see how Rodriguez will be able to sustain offense.
Miranda Maverick ($9,400)
Maverick has been relying on her wrestling almost exclusively recently, having scored at least three takedowns in four of her last six fights. Jamey-Lyn Horth has done well in the lower half of the division by being tough and aggressive but doesn't excel in any one area. This should allow Maverick to ply her trade, leading to a suitable cash option with GPP upside.
Michael Johnson ($8,700)
Johnson will need to mind his defense against the hard-hitting Ottman Azaitar, but the speed differential will likely help keep "The Menace" safe. While he doesn't always go to his wrestling, Johnson did notch four takedowns in his win over Darrius Flowers, and Azaitar looked particularly lost on his back against Francisco Prado. Johnson is seen as a veteran who is a bit long in the tooth, which could get us scarcity in what looks like a nice matchup for him.
Cub Swanson ($7,800)
Speaking of veterans with something left to offer, Swanson still hits hard and uses footwork to find his shots. He also uses his wrestling when appropriate, which should help ease the pressure from the always-advancing Billy Quarantillo. Swanson has made opponents pay for trying to walk through his offense in the past, including fights against Daniel Pineda and Darren Elkins. Quarantillo is durable, but he will face problems if the game plan is to overwhelm Swanson.
Daniel Marcos ($8,500)
It only took a couple of defeats for Adrian Yanez to lose confidence in the seek-and-destroy boxing that made him a hot prospect, as even his knockout win against Vinicius Salvador saw him throwing single strikes on the retreat until he found a counter shot. Marcos sometimes suffers from a lack of activity, but he should pin Yanez behind the black line quickly, picking him apart while using his defense to avoid any danger in return.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Sean Woodson OVER 72.5 Significant Strikes, Felipe Lima OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, and Joel Alvarez OVER 39.5 Significant Strikes
Woodson versus Fernando Padilla will pit two lanky kickboxers known for putting on high-paced fights against each other. This is likely to produce a total that goes far beyond the line here, as Woodson counts just three KO/TKOs among his 12 wins, and Padilla is likely to hang back and let "Sniper" control the center of the cage.
Miles Johns doesn't choose to grapple much despite his wrestling background, as we can see from the fact that he has notched just one takedown per 15 minutes of time in the UFC cage. Lima will be the far better athlete here, which will help him land shots and get out of range to avoid any potential clinches against the fence.
As a devastating submission artist who doesn't shoot for takedowns, Alvarez seems like a prime candidate for an over on this line, which implies an early finish. The issue is that Drakkar Klose has only been finished once (via knockout) in 17 professional fights. Unless we see something non-standard, I don't think this one is ending early.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Ramon Taveras OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Navajo Stirling UNDER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Joaquin Buckley UNDER 22.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Tavares is a slick boxer with solid takedown defense, having stuffed all four attempts made against him in the Octagon. Davey Grant is a hard-boiled veteran who marches forward and throws shots, but he shouldn't have much luck keeping up with a much younger, quicker opponent. Expect "Dangerous" to see the final bell and Tavares to emerge with his second straight victory.
As a plodding, powerful kickboxer with just five MMA fights to his name, I have my concerns about Stirling long-term. As is, I expect fireworks between the debutante and Tuco Tokkos, who will look to walk his opponent down and throw power shots. However this one ends up, it seems unlikely that we see the end of the first round.
Colby Covington has been fighting in the UFC for over a decade and somehow has never faced an opponent anywhere near as dangerous as Buckley on the feet. Under normal circumstances, this might mean a wrestling clinic from "Chaos," but Covington hasn't stepped foot in the cage for a year and looked listless in his loss to Leon Edwards in 2023. I'm essentially betting on a Buckley knockout here, as I doubt that the former title challenger would have the gas tank to put on the wrestling clinic required to win over five rounds.
Bets to Consider
Dustin Jacoby (+270)
My issues with Jacoby as a fighter have been well-documented in this article series, but I think he can win here on composure alone. Vitor Petrino is a powerful wrestler and grappler but makes baffling decisions in the cage, refusing to pull the trigger while in space. He also gets tired when he has to wrestle for a prolonged period, and Jacoby has been taken down multiple times in a fight just twice since his return to the organization in 2020. Petrino may be able to connect with a fight-altering blow, but the far more technical kickboxer should be able to see those strikes coming.
Manel Kape wins via KO/TKO (+280)
Kape is a powerful and technical striker whose inactivity has seen him drop decisions against fighters he arguably should have beaten. Against Bruno Silva, Kape will have no choice but to engage, as the Brazilian fighter likes to try and make quick work of his opponents. Kape's takedown defense (73 percent) has been solid throughout his stay in the UFC, which should leave Silva short options when he finds he needs to change course.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Tampa Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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