UFC Tampa Covington vs. Buckley DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes

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Published on December 12, 2024

UFC Tampa Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes

The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Tampa card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.

Piera Rodriguez (9-2-0) v. Josefine Knutsson (8-0-0)

Piera Rodriguez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins

Josefine Knutsson - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 60" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight might be closer than what is shown on paper. Rodriguez has an impressive ground game that could cause issues for Knutsson. However, Knutsson has a solid ground game herself, and her striking will be far better. This fight will likely remain close for its duration but is unlikely to produce a high score for DFS.

UFC Tampa Pick: Knutsson

Davey Grant (13-7-0) v. Ramon Taveras (10-2-0)

Davey Grant - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins

Ramon Taveras - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: This is another fight that should be close for its duration. Grant is a long-time veteran with a solid game but is not getting any younger. Taveras is the newcomer coming off of a debut win with developing skill sets. Either of these guys could record an early finish, making them solid targets for GPP contests.

UFC Tampa Pick: Grant

Miranda Maverick (14-5-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-1-0)

Miranda Maverick - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins

Jamey-Lyn Horth - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: Horth is getting a considerable step up in competition, which I do not think she will be able to handle. Maverick should be better everywhere, and it would not be surprising to see her score smash DFS value again.

UFC Tampa Pick: Maverick

Miles Johns (15-2-0) v. Felipe Lima (13-1-0)

Miles Johns - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 15 wins

Felipe Lima - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight is Lima or pass. Johns does not score well for DFS due to his defensive tendencies. He also tends to force his opponents to fight at slower paces. Lima will need to record a finish within the first two rounds to score well.

UFC Tampa Pick: Lima

Sean Woodson (12-1-1) v. Fernando Padilla (16-5-0)

Sean Woodson - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 12 wins

Fernando Padilla - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a battle of strikers, with the potential for a couple of takedowns mixed in. Woodson should be the better and more proficient striker. However, I would only expect a high DFS score with a finish, making this a fade for GPP only.

UFC Tampa Pick: Woodson

Drakkar Klose (15-2-1) v. Joel Alvarez (21-3-0)

Drakkar Klose - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 15 wins

Joel Alvarez - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 21 wins

DFS Perspective: This is Alvarez's fight to lose. He will have an edge on the feet and a considerable edge on the mat. Klose is more likely to shoot for a takedown, but it would be a mistake. His best chances will come on the feet with his power. Alvarez is a high-profile finisher and will be a popular pick for DFS.

UFC Tampa Pick: Alvarez

Michael Johnson (22-19-0) v. Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0)

Michael Johnson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 22 wins

Ottman Azaitar - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: The odds should be closer for this fight. Johnson has not been great in quite some time and has been knocked out by guys with similar power to Azaitar. Azaitar has been kill-or-be-killed in Round 1 through four UFC fights but has been knocked out in back-to-back fights. Johnson is not much of a finisher and does not score well for DFS. Azaitar is the de facto play.

UFC Tampa Pick: Azaitar

Navajo Stirling (5-0-0) v. Tuco Tokkos (10-4-0)

Navajo Stirling - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins

Tuco Tokkos - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: This will be a popular fight for DFS, as someone is getting finished early. Stirling is making his debut but has pure thunder in his hands. His Contender Series fight displayed what we are likely to see in this fight: an early knockout. Tokkos also has power and could thrive on the mat if he can get it there, making him a solid dart throw for GPP contests.

UFC Tampa Pick: Stirling

Daniel Marcos (16-0-0) v. Adrian Yanez (17-5-0)

Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins

Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins

DFS Perspective: Marcos puts his zero on the line against his toughest opponent to date. Yanez will be looking to run his streak to two after dropping two straight by knockout. Both guys are high-volume, but Yanez has the better power. This fight could go either way, and I would not be surprised to see a split decision. Marcos is impressive, but I am not going to write Yanez off as a top contender just yet.

UFC Tampa Pick: Yanez

Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) v. Vitor Petrino (11-1-0)

Dustin Jacoby - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins

Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: Jacoby cannot be trusted as a pick after losing four of the last five. Petrino lost for the first time in his career last time out, but it was more his own doing than anything else. I expect him to avoid making the same mistakes and to dominate with takedowns and control time.

UFC Tampa Pick: Petrino

Manel Kape (19-7-0) v. Bruno Silva (14-5-2)

Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins

Bruno Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: This is a big step up in competition for Silva, but given his four-fight finish streak, he should be used as a GPP piece for DFS. Kape has faced the better competition and should have a leg up everywhere the fight goes. A mistake by either fighter could be costly.

UFC Tampa Pick: Kape

Cub Swanson (29-14-0) v. Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0)

Cub Swanson - Height: 5'8 - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 29 wins

Billy Quarantillo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins

DFS Perspective: Quarantillo is a frustrating fighter to pick. He has had fights where he scores amazing in DFS, fighting to his strengths and mixing in takedowns with his striking. Lately, he has nearly become a pure striker, and while he throws a lot of volume, he eats nearly just as much. Eating that many shots against Cub Swanson is not a good idea. If he is going to win, he needs to mix in his takedowns. I expect him to do so and get back into the win column. Given Cub's pedigree and Quarantillo's willingness to strike, Swanson is a live dog.

UFC Tampa Pick: Quarantillo

Colby Covington (17-4-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (20-6-0)

Colby Covington - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins

Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 20 wins

DFS Perspective: Buckley has won five in a row, three by knockout. Colby has only won two of his last five after a run of seven consecutive. However, he is still a top contender in the division and has faced the best of the best. Buckley will have his chances to finish this early, but I think it's more likely we see Covington wear him down and grind out a decision with his wrestling.

UFC Tampa Pick: Covington

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FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.