This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 68 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Tatsuro Taira (12-0-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (8-1-0)
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Jesus Aguilar - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Taira will be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, but he will enjoy a significant edge on the feet. As long as he avoids putting himself into a compromised position on the mat, he should win this easily. However, Taira would need an early first-round finish or a lot of ancillary stats to hit his value.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Taira
Jun Yong Park (15-5-0) v. Denis Tiuliulin (11-6-0)
Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Denis Tiuliulin - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Tiuliulin is a dangerous striker and could end this early if he connects. I prefer the more complete fighter in Park, however. Park is more patient and should be able to avoid the power and eventually take this to the mat with his wrestling, where he should have a considerable edge. I expect Park to crush value if he uses his wrestling.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Park
Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) v. Mandy Bohm (7-2-0)
Ji Yeon Kim - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Mandy Bohm - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This lines up to be a 15-minutes striking affair. I expect Bohm to be more aggressive early, but Kim should dominate volume to a decision victory. I do not expect a high score unless the volume is exceptionally high.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Kim
Hyun Sung Park (7-0-0) v. Seung Guk Choi (6-1-0)
Hyun Sung Park - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Seung Guk Choi - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts after a couple of successful fights on the Road to the UFC. Park has shown more and has more ways to win as the better overall fighter. I expect him to finish this quickly and record a high score.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Park
Rinya Nakamura (6-0-0) v. Toshiomi Kazama (10-2-0)
Rinya Nakamura - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Toshiomi Kazama - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Another pair of fighters making their UFC debuts after a successful stint on Road to the UFC. Kazama will have his chances on the mat, but Nakamura will be better everywhere and should finish this early.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Nakamura
Yi Zha (21-3-0) v. Jeong Yeong Lee (9-1-0)
Yi Zha - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 21 wins
Jeong Yeong Lee - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Yet another pair making their debuts, fresh out of Road to the UFC. I expect this fight to be closer than the others. Yi has fought in more than double professional fights as Lee and has finished 16 of them. However, Lee will likely be the bigger fighter who comes out hot on the feet and records damage early. Yi has a chance if he can get his wrestling going, but I like Lee to end this one early.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Lee
Anshul Jubli (6-0-0) v. Jeka Saragih (13-2-0)
Anshul Jubli - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
Jeka Saragih - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: The fourth pair of fighters making their debuts fresh off Road to the UFC. This should be a super fun fight with much action. Both guys are well-rounded and could take this. Jubli will have the edge on the mat, while Saragih will have the edge on the feet. Saragih should be able to reverse or sweep to keep this upright, and I expect him to find an early finish.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Saragih
Yusaku Kinoshita (6-1-0) v. Adam Fugitt (8-3-0)
Yusaku Kinoshita - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Adam Fugitt - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Kinoshita will make his UFC debut after a knockout win in the Contender Series. This should be a high-paced fight with constant action. Kinoshita will have the edge in volume and wrestling, while Fugitt will have the edge in power and size. If it goes to a decision, it likely goes to Kinoshita for volume. Fugitt has fought better competition, and I like the dog in this one.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Fugitt
Doo Ho Choi (14-4-0) v. Kyle Nelson (13-5-0)
Doo Ho Choi - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If Choi is fully recovered from the substantial damage he took over the last three fights, I expect him to dominate this matchup. Nelson has not done anything to make me think he will win this matchup.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Choi
Marcin Tybura (23-7-0) v. Blagoy Ivanov (19-4-0)
Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
Blagoy Ivanov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are getting up there in age, but I would say Tybura is in better shape. He will also have the edge everywhere the fight goes, particularly on the mat. Imavov still has some power, but a knockout would be his only path to win.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Tybura
Da Un Jung (15-3-1) v. Devin Clark (13-7-0)
Da Un Jung - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Devin Clark - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I like Jung everywhere this fight goes. Clark would need to record takedowns and keep control, but Jung has some of the best takedown defense in the division and can wrestle himself. I would expect him to throw more volume on the feet as well.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Jung
Derrick Lewis (26-10-0) v. Sergey Spivac (15-3-0)
Derrick Lewis - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 26 wins
Sergey Spivac - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Lewis will always have that killer power, and it will likely once again be his only path to victory. Spivac will be quicker, has power and holds a significant advantage on the mat. I expect him to get there early to tire Lewis out and eventually finish him.
UFC Vegas 68 Pick: Spivac
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 68 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
