WM Phoenix Open One and Done Picks, Strategy and Analysis
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The WM Phoenix Open returns to TPC Scottsdale, bringing one of the most electric atmospheres in golf. Scottie Scheffler is again the headliner, looking to continue his dominance after winning the event in 2022 and 2023 and finishing third in 2024.
Regarding WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks, the question is whether to use Scheffler now or save him for a higher-purse event later in the season.
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WM Phoenix Open: Tournament Overview
Before running through the best WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks, here's a look at the tournament structure and prize distribution:
- 132-player field with a traditional cut format
- $9.2 million purse, with $1.65 million going to the winner
- 13 tournaments remaining with higher purses
- 6 tournaments remain with a higher first-place prize but same purse tier
This setup presents several One and Done strategies, especially with many top players navigating the schedule leading into upcoming Signature Events.
Should You Pick Scottie Scheffler?
Scheffler's record at TPC Scottsdale is nearly unmatched. He won the WM Phoenix Open in back-to-back years (2022, 2023) and finished third in 2024, making him the clear +275 betting favorite this week. For reference, Justin Thomas has the next best odds to win at +1200.
Despite checking in as the most likely winner, saving Scheffler for a Signature Event with a $3M+ first-place payout may provide more value in the long term.
Players with strong course history and recent form could serve as strong alternative picks for those looking to preserve Scheffler for later.
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Top WM Phoenix Open One and Done Picks
Several other players in the field have momentum and strong track records at TPC Scottsdale, making them viable WM Phoenix Open picks this week.
High-Popularity Picks (8-14% Selection Rate)
- Justin Thomas – Runner-up at The American Express, second-best win odds behind Scheffler.
- Nick Taylor – The 2024 champion, also won the Sony Open this season.
- Sahith Theegala – Two top-5 finishes at TPC Scottsdale in the last three years.
Mid-Popularity Picks (4-7% Selection Rate)
- Hideki Matsuyama – Two-time WM Phoenix Open champion, always a threat here.
- Sepp Straka – Trending up with a strong strokes-gained profile for this course.
- Billy Horschel – Moderate to low ownership with sneaky upside based on recent play.
WM Phoenix Open One and Done Picks Analysis
The case for picking Scheffler is clear—he's dominated this event for three years and is the most likely winner. However, his lower ownership in One and Done pools suggests that many opt to save him for higher-purse tournaments later in the season. That's likely the correct strategy.
Justin Thomas stands out as a strong option this week, carrying the second-best odds behind Scheffler. While top-tier names like Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im are viable contenders, their potential value in future Signature Events makes them better candidates for preservation.
This opens the door for targeting mid-tier options such as Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala, Sepp Straka, and Billy Horschel. While these players may still see moderate ownership, that's less of a concern in a non-signature event. The priority should be maximizing results now while keeping elite players available for the big-money tournaments.
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