Weekly PGA Preview: Valspar Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor as the Valspar Championship gets underway.

What more could we ask for? Another signature event, another drama-filled Sunday (and to some extent, Monday) with one of the best in the world in the mix. Sure, it would be nice to see Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele in the mix in addition to Rory McIlroy, but we'll take what we can get.

As for Rory, I'd say he seems to be on a mission this season, but he's always been that way, the difference so far this season, is that he's closing unlike he has in recent years. He's off to his best start in years, but the question still looms, can get break the major drought? The answer is one that no one wants to hear and that's, "we'll see", but what else can we say right now? He's been a top-3 golfer for the past decade and he's failed to win a major during that time, so no matter how good he looks right now, all we can do is wonder if he can do it when it matters the most and by "matters the most" I mean, matters the most to Rory.

I don't want gloss over what he's accomplished this season by looking ahead however. He's won two signature events already, a trajectory that puts him in a similar class to Scott Scheffler over the past couple seasons. The separator of course is that Scheffler continued to win beyond the first few months, and he did win majors, so yes, McIlroy has been lights-out this season, but what he does in the next few months will tell the tale of this season. Okay, so I kind of glossed over his win again, but it's tough to talk about McIlroy without brining up the majors because we all know that the majors are what matter most to him, it's not just us putting the emphasis on the majors.

With two signature wins under his belt, 2025 has already been a successful season, but without a major win, it won't be a fulfilling one for Rory. If I had to guess right now, I'd say he gets number five this year, but I've been predicting number five for a decade now.

Onto this week. The Valspar Championship has a pretty good field for a non-signature event and we've got a ton of course history, so let's get to it.

LAST YEAR

Peter Malnati shot a final-round 67 on his way to two-stroke victory over Cameron Young.

FAVORITES

Tommy Fleetwood (11-1)

I mentioned we have a solid field, but as you can tell by the first person listed, we're missing the cream of the crop. Fleetwood is off to a strong start this season but installing him as the favorite is a bit surprising. His track record here is good, but he's only played here twice. Fleetwood finished T3 here in 2023 and T16 the year prior, but passed on this event in 2024, which makes me wonder if he truly likes playing here. You'd think after having some success here in his first two starts that he'd jump at the opportunity to come back and play this course again, but perhaps it was just a scheduling conflict and I'm reading too much into it. Either way, I don't like these odds as there are plenty of guys in the field than can make life difficult for Fleetwood.

Xander Schauffele (12-1)

Two starts into the season and things have not gone great for Schauffele, but at least he's made the cut in his first two starts. I mentioned this past week that it's going to click for Schauffele at some point and after that happens, say goodbye to the discounted odds. It's definitely risky taking him at this point, but heck, it's just a win wager, it's not like using him in a OAD pool where you are losing future value if he plays poorly. Either he continues to work his way back and you lose out, or he finally starts to look like the Schauffele from this past season and you cash in. Schauffele has played this event twice and finished T5 and T12.

Justin Thomas (20-1)

Thomas isn't the same golfer he was five years ago, he's still pretty good. His form has been good this season, but he's failed to find that extra gear to get him across the finish line. His track record here is good, but not great, with three top-10s in seven starts, but nothing higher than a T3.

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (22-1)

Burns owned this event for a few years prior to inexplicably missing the cut this past year. In the three years prior to that missed cut, Burns won twice and finished T6. He looked like an absolute lock for a top-5 here this past year and he somehow missed the cut. That was part of a story to a disappointing 2024 season overall however, so let's not hold that against him. You don't win somewhere in consecutive seasons without having a great feel for a course, so I fully expect Burns to be in the hunt again.

Michael Kim (30-1)

Kim's hot run came to an end this past week at THE PLAYERS, but I'm not going to let a missed cut at a quirky event like THE PLAYERS dissuade me from taking him here. Kim was getting closer each week to winning prior to this past week and I think he can simply flush that MC out of his system and get back to his previous form. His track record here is concerning, he's missed the cut in four of seven starts here, but we have to remember that he's not that guy anymore, he's simply a better golfer now than he's even been.

Will Zalatoris (45-1)

Just like we're waiting on Schauffele to get back to his old form, we're also waiting on Zalatoris. For Zalatoris, we've been waiting quite a while, but we started to see his old form this past week at The PLAYERS Championship, only to see him implode soon after. Though he stumbled to the finish, I still like what I saw before that and honestly, things can get away from you fast at Sawgrass, so I'm not going to hold that against him. This will be his first time at this event, so this has a chance to go south quickly, but I have a feeling he's pretty close to his best form, it's just a matter of consistency now.

LONG SHOTS

Lucas Glover (70-1)

Glover got plenty of screen time this past week at THE PLAYERS, and with good cause. Glover finished just outside of the playoff, and it wasn't only due to a hot putter, which makes me think that he can continue his roll. This past week wasn't his only strong finish this season either as he placed third at Pebble Beach in February. Recent form isn't the only reason to like Glover, either. While his track record here isn't jaw-dropping, what is astounding is the number of times he's played this event. This year will mark his 20th start here, which means that he obviously likes this course.

Sahith Theegala (90-1)

Every once in a while, you have to make a play based on who's due. Theegala had a career year in 2023, and he backed that up in 2024 with an even better season. As it stands now, he's going to have trouble keeping that trend going in 2025 as he's failed to do much of anything, but he's too good to stay down for much longer. Theegala will get it going at some point, it's just a matter of when and if you believe that the turn around is coming, then these odds have to be awfully enticing. Theegala has played here just once, but that resulted in a top-10.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen pick: Tommy Fleetwood – Fleetwood has been very reliable this season, which should make him a popular play this week. Burns would have been the runaway selection here had he played well over the past couple weeks, but that hasn't been the case. I do think Burns will get plenty of attention, but Fleetwood could beat him out in the way of usage because of his play over the past month.

Moderately-Chosen pick: Sam Burns – Speaking of Burns, as I mentioned, he would be the easy pick if he hadn't missed the cut this past week and finished T48 the week prior, but even with that questionable form he still looks like a good play. I remember heading into this event this past year and there was no doubt that Burns was the play. Will one missed cut scare off the masses? Perhaps, but I still think plenty of OAD players will give him a chance.

Lightly-Chosen pick: Lucas Glover – Anytime there are players at the top that look like good options, just about everyone else is going to fall into the "lightly-chosen" category, and that's certainly true this week. The strange this about Glover's season to date is that he's played well at the signature events, and he's struggled against lesser fields. Perhaps with a somewhat stronger field, Glover will bring his best game.

Buyer Beware: Viktor Hovland – As someone who really needs Hovland to start playing well for one of salary cap teams I can say with complete confidence that I don't think a turnaround is coming soon.  Perhaps that's just the pessimist in me, but it looks like Hovland is just lost right now. He did battle back with a solid 68 after opening The PLAYERS with an 80, but I doubt that means he's ready to contend just yet. Hopefully he makes more strides so he can once again be a factor sometime soon, but expecting anything from him this week is a bit foolish.

This week: Lucas Glover – This pick is based on how he played down the stretch this past week and Glover's propensity to get hot for short stretches. His track record here is long, but there really isn't anything there that that would indicate a win is coming, yet the way he fought back on Sunday makes me think that he's locked-in right now and ready to make a little run. I also like the way he's played against strong fields this year and while this field is not comparable to the past two weeks, it's certainly good enough to get the best out of Glover.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sam Burns ($11,400)
Middle Range: Lucas Glover ($9,800)
Lower Range: Adam Schenk ($8,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Lucas Glover – Yes, he has missed five cuts here, but he's made 14 cuts, and he hasn't missed a cut since 2016. With the way he played this past week, I'd be shocked if he were to miss a cut at an event that he's played so often throughout his career.