Weekly PGA Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads north to TPC Sawgrass for the latest edition of golf's "fifth major" -- THE PLAYERS Championship.

I've been asking for it all year and we finally had it happen this past week. Okay, so we didn't get two superstars in a Sunday battle, but we got two top-10 (after his win Henley is in the top-10) golfers in an extremely drama-filled final two hours at a signature event.

Collin Morikawa looked to be in absolute control heading to the back-nine, but Russell Henley had other plans. Honestly, Morikawa was cruising so well, I didn't think anyone else had a chance, but it's amazing what an unexpected chip-in can do for both the leader and the one chasing him. Morikawa, for his part, didn't exactly crumble, he just couldn't regroup to make anything happen after Henley chipped-in on the 16th-hole. That blow came so late in the round, Morikawa was likely shelled shocked. I really can't blame Morikawa for being unable to make a final push.

As much fun as this past Sunday was, it is The PLAYERS Championship week, so it's time to turn our attention to the "5th major". Of course it's not actually a major, but there is certainly a lot of buzz around this event each year and the fact that we're starving for a major is only part of the reason why.

Much like Augusta, one of the draws of this event is the course and it's not just the 17th-hole, this entire course is easy on the eyes. Aside from the visuals, this is a great risk-reward course. There's water on several holes, so a big number is always a possibility, but you can go low on this course as well, you just have to be locked-in on your approach shots.

Speaking of those approach shots, one of the sneaky things about this course is how much trouble you can find around the greens. Get on the surface and you're fine, but just off the green lies plenty of trouble yet it's not always visible. I've played this course and I can't tell you how many times I thought I was fine because I was just off the green, but I wasn't. Approach shots and short game will be pivotal this week.  

Okay, let's get to it, we've got a big week ahead.  

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final round 64 on his way to one-stroke victory over Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele. 

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (4-1) 

I tweeted this past weekend that I expected Scheffler's odds to get more reasonable after failing to contend yet again this past week, and while that seems to be happening, these odds still aren't in the right place. I get it though, he's not that far off of what it would take to win on the PGA Tour, but he's miles away from where he was at this point this past season. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him win for the third consecutive year here, but there's simply not enough value at this price.    

Rory McIlroy (11-1)

McIlroy was ahead of Scheffler the entire way at Bay Hill until the very last hole on Sunday, but being ahead of Scheffler right now isn't exactly the bar. McIlroy played well this past week, but he was never in contention. That might work in favor however as the spotlight won't be on McIlroy at Sawgrass. It will be on the two-time defending champ and a handful of other players, which is just fine with McIlroy. McIlroy's track record here is hit or miss, like just about everyone in the field, but when he's on, he's a factor. McIlroy won this event in 2019.   

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

I was firmly in the avoid-Morikawa camp last week and that obviously didn't turn out too well. The reason I faded him was simple, his track record at Bay Hill was awful and his form wasn't great heading into the week. Well, his track record at Sawgrass isn't great either, but it's better there than it was at Bay Hill, and we know his form is back, so yeah, I'm thinking Morikawa might be a decent pick. The biggest hurdle will be getting over the disappointment, which might be easier said than done since it's been a while since he won on the PGA Tour.  

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (25-1)

Do I think Schauffele wins this week? No, but can he win? Of course. Yes, he's got a lot working against him as he tries to shake off the rust, but if he does end up winning, I think we'll look back at this past week and how important it was to get four competitive rounds in before heading back to Sawgrass. The reason he has a puncher's chance this week is his track record here, that and he's two-time major winner Xander Schauffele. He is no lock to make the cut, he's missed 3/6 cuts here, but when he plays the weekend, he means business. Schauffele has three top-20s in six starts, including two runner-up finishes.                        

Hideki Matsuyama (33-1)

Matsuyama has cooled off since his hot start in Hawaii, but he's yet to miss a cut this season and he's carded three consecutive top-25s entering the week. I know, top-25s aren't exactly what he's shooting for each week, but it does show that his game isn't that far off right now. The reason Matsuyama is on my radar is his track record here. Matsuyama has finished in the top-8 in three of his past four starts here, which doesn't include 2020, when he opened with a 63 before the event was cancelled due to COVID. Outside of the defending champ and maybe a couple other guys, there isn't anyone else that can claim a better track record here than Matsuyama.     

Russell Henley (35-1)  

Can Henley pull off the double like Scheffler did a year ago? It's not likely, but that's why we're getting 35-1 on a guy that just got the better of the top players in the field this week just a week ago. Henley has long been just on the outside of the second-tier on the PGA Tour, but with his win this past week at the Palmer, he's firmly entrenched in that second-tier. Another win this week and we're talking about possible creeping into the top-tier, but I'm getting way ahead of myself. Henley's track record here is not great, but his confidence has to be at an all-time high and sometimes that's enough to get you places you never thought you'd be.   

LONG SHOTS

Keegan Bradley (50-1) 

Who do you target when everyone seemingly has scattered track records? You go with the hot hands. Nobody was hotter this past Sunday than Bradley who absolutely tore up Bay Hill, but in the end, he simply ran out of holes. Broken record time, Bradley's track record is all over the place, it goes without saying at this point, but he finished 5th here in 2022 and T7 in 2018. Let's not overlook his motivation this week and every upcoming week for that matter also. He's playing for a spot on the Ryder Cup team, an automatic spot that is, because he'll have a tough time choosing himself if it comes to that. Then again, if he plays well enough to leave himself just outside the auto bids, that selection would be much easier.   

Daniel Berger (65-1)     

I know, Berger is on this list quite a bit and he's yet to win, but I'm telling you, it's coming. Berger once again played well this past week, but he couldn't quite finish. He's putting together multiple solid rounds every week, but he can't get all four in one week. One of these weeks it's all going to click and while his chances of getting on top of this field aren't great, he's beaten many of these guys before, so it can be done. His track record here is scattered, no surprise, but it's good to see that he's capable of some high-end finishes here.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler was pretty popular at Bay Hill, but he's going to be really popular this week. Those that have yet to use him must be feeling great right about now as he hasn't done anything yet this season. I can't argue with this pick, but if you're feeling confident, I might pass on him one more time. If you pass and he doesn't win, you've got a huge advantage down the road.    

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Collin Morikawa – Morikawa is here mostly by default. Schauffele would be a popular pick if this wasn't his second event back from injury and McIlroy is better suited for somewhere else down the road. JT has played well here, but I don't think most OAD owners trust him in a spot like this. Aberg played well here a year ago, but he didn't play all that well at Bay Hill. Matsuyama could be popular this week, but I think a lot of players have used him already as he usually plays his best early in the season. That leaves Morikawa, who, you know, was the best golfer on the course for 69 holes a week ago.             

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Keegan Bradley – Bradley is right on the fringe of the cut-off between signature players for the OAD and non-signature players. After this past week however, I think he should be in the mix for signature events, if for no other reason, the dude is fearless and highly motivated to get some results for the Ryder Cup. Bradley has missed the past two cuts here, but prior to that he had made four consecutive, a run that included two top-10s.  

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas – It's tough to pick one this week because in reality, everyone is potentially a bad pick due to the nature of this course. If you need proof, just check the track record of anyone in the field and you're going to see some bad outings. No one is immune, even Scheffler has a MC and a T55 here. With that said, I'm not really feeling JT this week. Yes, he won here in 2021, but in the start prior to that win and three starts since, he's failed to crack the top-30. His form his season has been good, but not great and even when he's played well, he's had trouble putting four rounds together.     

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama – I mentioned this past week that if my Scheffler play did not work, I'd be in scramble mode the rest of the season and while I believe that I do need to take some chances now, I don't want to get cute this week. Matsuyama is a little under radar, especially with Schauffele returning and Morikawa nearly winning the API. I think we'll see a majority on Scheffler, and the rest of the ownership scattered, which should provide some opportunity to move up the standings if Matsuyama plays well. His track record here indicates that even if he doesn't win, he'll be in the mix.                                                                            

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900)
Middle Range: Keegan Bradley ($9,900)
Lower Range: Aaron Rai ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Adam Scott – Scott doesn't have the upside to be a OAD pick this week, but he's certainly in the mix for a Survivor selection. Scott has played this event 22 times and missed the cut on just four occasions. Better yet, he's only missed one cut in his past 12 starts here. His form is fine also, he finished T36 this past week at Bay Hill and while that isn't great, it's good enough to give me the confidence to select him in this format.