This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass (7,352 yards, par 72)
Purse: $25,000,000
Winner: $4,500,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida is one of the most iconic courses in professional golf. From the many dangerous hazards, to the difficult green complexes and of course the infamous island green 17th hole, this is truly one of the great tests in golf for what is the PGA Tour's flagship event. A loaded field of the best 144 players on Tour will ascend on this Pete Dye design looking to claim the biggest purse in golf. A whopping $25 million will be on the table with the winner taking home $4.5 million of that, along with 750 FedExCup points.
For years the talk around this event was should THE PLAYERS be the fifth major? That sentiment has cooled in recent years with a number of the most talented players in the world no longer able to play in this event because of their association with LIV Golf. It may no longer have the clear cut strongest field in golf, but make no mistake about it, every player wants to have this trophy on the mantle when all is said and done. That alone makes this tournament feel big every year knowing that a player's resume feels incomplete without a win in this event.
TPC Sawgrass has so much volatility because of the danger lurking on every hole. A slight swing error or miscalculation can result in a tournament-ending number. That's a big reason why many of the top players have such an inconsistent record at this place over the years. That said, Scottie Scheffler put his name in the history books last year when he became the first player in the over 50-year history of THE PLAYERS Championship to win in back-to-back years. Scheffler's 2024 season will go down as one of the best we've ever seen, but it was that eight-under 64 he shot on Sunday at TPC Sawgrass to chase down Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman that I believe was his most iconic moment from that year.
We've seen an interesting season to this point. There's been top players like Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg and Russell Henley find victory at the first four signature events of the season, players like Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka and Harris English return to the winner's circle, and first-time winners like Thomas Detry, Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith. We are still waiting on the clear top two players in 2024 in Scheffler and Xander Schauffele to find their way back to that form this year, as both have had to try and overcome offseason injuries. 2021 PLAYERS Champion Justin Thomas is still looking for his first win since 2022 and World No. 10 Tommy Fleetwood hopes this week is finally his time for PGA Tour win No. 1. Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth are other former top players who struggled last year and are hoping they can create magic this week.
THE PLAYERS moving back to March in 2019 has led to windier conditions than it had in May, but also at times softer like last year when Scheffler was able to post the second-lowest score-to-par in event history at 20-under. This year we are likely to see a combination of the two again. The course absorbed a large amount of precipitation over the weekend which really softened things. That said, it will have the chance to air out with no rain expected to fall until Sunday afternoon. It will be pretty mild winds from Tuesday through Friday with daytime temperatures in the mid-70s. Everything will crank up on the weekend, however, as Saturday and Sunday should see sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts up over 30 mph at times. Potential for afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday could also affect how the Tour elects to send players off for the final round.
Recent Champions
2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-20)
2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022 - Cameron Smith (-13)
2021 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2020 - Canceled after first round
2019 - Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018 - Webb Simpson (-18)
2017 - Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016 - Jason Day (-15)
2015 - Rickie Fowler (-12)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
Champion's Profile
Much like Bay Hill last week, TPC Sawgrass is a complete test. Even though they have had added 77 yards to the course this year with new tee boxes on a few different holes, accuracy still is far more important than length at this course. There's plenty of water hazards, tricky bunkers and overseeded rye rough up to four inches that players will need to contend with off the tee. It's extremely hard to score on this course if you are not playing from the fairway. Accuracy on approach is just as important, as there are plenty of places you don't want to miss on these tricky green complexes. Good approach shots also reduce the chances of three-putts, which won't be uncommon given the slopes and ridges that segment different part of these greens.
The switch from May to March made the short game a bit easier. Some of the shots on short bermudagrass in the summertime were very tricky and made some players look foolish. The overseed gives these players a little extra cushion to strike their chips cleaner. That said, a lot of these greenside bunkers are no picnic and we saw the issues getting caught up in the thick rough last week at Bay Hill around the greens. The putter can always be the great equalizer and it's certainly something to focus on picking players to go in your lineups. Four of the top-five finishers last year finished inside the top-eight in SG: Putting.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,000)
Hits fairways, elite iron play, quality short game and improved putter. The man going for three straight at TPC Sawgrass checks all the boxes for this course. Scheffler hasn't been able to put his stamp on 2025 just yet, but he's still finished top-11 in three of his four starts. He didn't putt well last week, but he gained north of half a stroke per round in his previous five starts. Scheffler is brilliant at just plodding his way around a course and he and caddie Ted Scott will do it again.
Collin Morikawa ($11,100)
I can't imagine anyone will be more motivated this week than Morikawa, who played excellent at Bay Hill, only for Russell Henley to just steal it from him at the end. He has come so close on several occasions since his last win in the fall of 2023. I've always thought Morikawa is a great fit for TPC Sawgrass with his ability to find fairways and his deadly accuracy with the irons. He's finished outside the top-25 just twice in his last 20 starts with eight top-five finishes in that span.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900)
Matsuyama has one of the most consistent records at TPC Sawgrass among the top players. He's finished T6 and 5th the last two years, and owns seven top-25s in nine starts. Matsuyama ranks top-20 on Tour in SG: Approach, proximity 50-125 yards, SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling. He is also on pace for a career-best season with the putter. The one concern has been the driving, but Matsuyama won't have to hit a lot of drivers here, and he's also never lost strokes off the tee at Sawgrass in his career.
The Middle Tier
Russell Henley ($10,400)
Henley is underpriced yet again. After his big win at Bay Hill he is now sixth in both SG: Total and the DataGolf rankings. He's got the perfect game for TPC Sawgrass ranking inside the top-30 on Tour in driving accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR percentage, proximity, SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting. Really the only question here is how he is able to refocus after that signature win, because all the numbers support Henley having a great chance to contend at this course.
Daniel Berger ($9,700)
Berger is now back inside the top 50 of the OWGR after his long road back from a back injury. He is playing some of the best golf of his career, going T2-12th-T25-T15 over his last four starts. He gained strokes in every category over that stretch. Like some of the other players that have been highlighted, Berger is an accurate driver who is in great control of his irons. The Florida State product finished T9 and T13 in his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Si Woo Kim ($9,200)
After a slow start to 2025, Kim has found his groove. He finished 12th-T21-T24-T19 in his last four starts, three of those being Signature Events. Kim has been one of the more accurate drivers on Tour for the last few years, and his wedge control has been spot on ranking 16th in proximity 50-125 yards. The 29-year-old was second at Bay Hill in SG: Around-the-Green as well. Kim won at TPC Sawgrass back in 2017 and other than a WD has never missed a cut here, including a T6 a year ago.
The Long Shots
Aaron Rai ($8,800)
Rai has really come on over the last year, and his ability to hit fairways and greens at a high rate makes him an intriguing option for TPC Sawgrass. Rai is coming off a T4 in Mexico and a T11 at Bay Hill. He has gained strokes in his last six starts on the greens as well. The Englishman has a pair of top-35 finishes in his first two starts in this event. As a completely better player now, I'd expect Rai to be in the mix for a top-10.
Denny McCarthy ($8,200)
McCarthy checks in at a very cheap number for THE PLAYERS. He is coming off an 18th place finish at Bay Hill, which was his 11 straight made cut. During that stretch McCarthy owns seven top-26 finishes. We know how strong he is on the greens, but the iron play of late as stuck out gaining at least 0.8 strokes per round over his last four events. McCarthy has made the cut in all five starts at TPC Sawgrass, including a T13 a couple years ago.
Michael Kim ($7,700)
He's going to be popular, but it's going to be hard to beat this kind of value for a guy who is coming off his fifth straight top-13 finish. Kim is clicking on all cylinders after a solo fourth at Bay Hill in which he gained strokes across the board yet again. He is seventh in SG: Total on Tour this season and first in bogey avoidance. We have to just keep riding the hot hand or until the pricing adjusts. Pay no attention to his record at TPC Sawgrass, Kim is playing the best golf of his career right now.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
THE PLAYERS Championship is definitely one of the hardest events to go 6-for-6 at. Not only because the field is so good, but also because of the volatility of the course. You can play pretty good golf for two days, but a couple slight mistakes can turn into big numbers and ruin any shot you have at making the cut. In general, I'm going to try to avoid players who have struggled with driving accuracy, or who are trending in the wrong direction with the irons. Course history is usually not very sticky at TPC Sawgrass, but I do believe you can trust those who have consistently made the cut here. I think the depth of the field gives DFS players a lot of lineup construction options, but I will say the low $10K to high $9K range is my favorite part of the board. Shane Lowry ($10,200), Sepp Straka ($10,000), Keegan Bradley ($9,900) and Corey Conners ($9,900) are all in that mix who I didn't mention above that I believe are excellent course fits.
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