This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
BMW Championship
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club (8,130 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 2,000 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The top-50 players in the FedExCup standings will compete at Castle Pines Golf Club just outside of Denver at the BMW Championship, the longest running regular PGA Tour event on the calendar (1899) outside of the Open Championship (1860) and the U.S. Open (1895). This championship was previously known as the Western Open, but was rebranded as the BMW Championship during the first iteration of the FedExCup Playoffs in 2007. It is one of the few annual PGA Tour events that moves around. Castle Pines will be the 11th different host venue since its inclusion in the playoffs.
While Castle Pines is new to this championship, it is not new to the PGA Tour. The Jack Nicklaus design hosted The International from 1986-2006 which featured a Stableford scoring system. Some of the winners over the years included Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Greg Norman and Davis Love III. Castle Pines has underwent some renovations since being left off the schedule and now tips at a PGA Tour-record 8,130 yards. While that is certainly a jarring number, this course is played at elevation and will play closer to the 7,300-7,400 yard range. There is also about 400 feet of elevation changes throughout the course and that combined with the thin air and unfamiliarities to nearly all of the field will make caddies certainly earn their payday.
Hideki Matsuyama nearly let a big lead slip away at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the opening leg of the playoffs, but was able to birdie the final two holes for his 10th career PGA Tour win. Matsuyama earns 2,000 FedExCup points and now slots in third in the standings behind Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Of the 70 players in Memphis, three that started the week outside the top-50 were able to bump their way into the BMW Championship and secure a place in all eight Signature Events next season. Defending FedExCup champ Viktor Hovland finished T2 to move from 57th to 16th, last year's Rookie of the Year winner Eric Cole finished T18 to go from 54th to 46th and 20-year-old Nick Dunlap and two-time PGA Tour winner in 2024 finished T5 to go from 67th to 48th. Tom Kim (43rd to 51st), Mackenzie Hughes (48th to 52nd) and Jake Knapp (50th to 59th) were the three players who fell out of the top-50 with disappointing showings in Memphis.
The focus now for the 50 players at the BMW Championship turns to trying to make the top-30 and the TOUR Championship. Making it to East Lake is a goal of every player to start the season because it locks up a spot in all four majors the following year. Players who are far more secure in the top-30 will be playing for positioning at the TOUR Championship with the starting strokes format. Right now Scheffler would begin the TOUR Championship at 10-under with a two-shot lead over Schauffele at 8-under followed by Matsuyama at 7-under, Collin Morikawa at 6-under and Rory McIlroy at 5-under. Players 6-10 in the standings will start at 4-under, 11-15 at 3-under, 16-20 at 2-under, 21-25 at 1-under and 26-30 at even-par. Denny McCarthy holds a narrow lead over Tommy Fleetwood for the 30th spot in the FedExCup standings going into this week's BMW Championship. Corey Conners (33rd), Matt Fitzpatrick (36th), Will Zalatoris (37th), Cameron Young (39th), Adam Scott (41st) and Max Homa (43rd) are some of the notables with some work to do at Castle Pines to make it back to East Lake.
As if there wasn't already enough to play for this week, the BMW Championship marks the cutoff for the Presidents Cup automatic qualifiers. The top six players on both the U.S. and International team's eligibility list after this event will be assured a spot at the Presidents Cup at Royal Montreal Golf Club on Sept. 26-29. Scheffler, Schauffele, Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Sahith Theegala currently hold the six auto spots for the American team, while Matsuyama, Kim, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Scott and Byeong Hun An hold the six auto spots on the International side. U.S. Captain Jim Furyk and International Captain Mike Weir will make six captain's picks each during the next couple weeks to finalize the rosters for the 15th playing of the Presidents Cup.
Castle Pines usually receives no rain in June and July, but August brings monsoon season and the grasses will certainly be lush for the BMW Championship. There's a chance we see some afternoon storms each round this week, which will limit some of the rollout on tee shots, but also make the greens even more receptive. This parkland-style course has a lot of large trees that will shelter the players from some of the wind, but there's also enough severely downhill holes to where the full brunt of the gusts will have to be taken on. The wind is projected to be stronger on the weekend than the opening two rounds. The BMW Championship has seen very good scoring of late with six of the last nine winners reaching 20-under-par. Even with the big number of the scorecard, Castle Pines should play soft and allow for a lot of red numbers this week.
Recent Champions
2023 - Viktor Hovland -17 (Olympia Fields)
2022 - Patrick Cantlay -14 (Wilmington)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay -27 (Caves Valley)
2020 - Jon Rahm -4 (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas -25 (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley -20 (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman -23 (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson -23 (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day -22 (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel -14 (Cherry Hills)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Par-5 Scoring
Champion's Profile
Believe it or not even on a course that says 8,130 on the scorecard, I will be favoring accuracy over power off the tee this week. The reason for that is obviously that the course won't play that long, but also because the landing areas are not as large as you would think. A lot of the tee shots feature strategic bunkering and grassy barrancas, which will be extremely penal considering the thickness of the rough as those areas will collect all the water that falls this week. There is a lot of similarities in a way to TPC Southwind in that precision both off the tee and into the greens will be required to score, but also both courses feature a lot of water hazards which can ruin a round in a hurry.
The greens themselves are another challenge all together. They are reasonably sized, but play a lot narrower based on where the hole locations are. There's a lot of sneaky areas where the setup crew could decide to place a flag, which certainly shrinks the target into the greens. They are also going to be prepped to run at 13.5 on the Stimpmeter, which is just about as fast as any on the PGA Tour. With the potential rain in the forecast they might not get quite there, but these unfamiliar surfaces will be a challenge to all the players and likely puts even more emphasis on ball-striking. I still do see short-game coming into play given the likelihood for miscalculations playing at altitude and with significant elevation changes around the course.
Lastly, I think one other important stat to look at would be par-5 scoring average. It feel like less and less courses on the PGA Tour feature a stock set of four par-5s, but that will be the case at Castle Pines. All four of them should be reachable my most of the players in this field and there's a good chance that the leaders in par-5 scoring average for the week are up there with a chance to win the BMW Championship on Sunday.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
Scheffler is going to be strong no matter where he tees it up, but Castle Pines seems to be right up his alley. He ranks top-three on Tour this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, total driving, GIR percentage and scrambling. On top of that he also leads the way in both par-4 and par-5 scoring as well as birdie average. Scheffler's been frustrated on the greens recently, but I think everyone will be to some degree on this course. He's trending toward a win having finished T3 and T2 the last two years at the BMW Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,600)
Matsuyama has shown over his career that he can sustain a heater and we've seen a number of players go back-to-back in the playoffs over the years. He had one of the best putting weeks of his career in Memphis and actually lost strokes around the greens, which is crazy considering he led the Tour in that department coming into the week. The driving and iron play continue to be so consistent and Matsuyama seems to really excel on receptive golf courses in the heat.
Tony Finau ($10,600)
Finau plays a lot of golf in Utah, so he is quite used to playing at elevation. That familiarity should help him this week to dial in distances, something he's been terrific at all season, as Finau ranks second to Scheffler in SG: Approach. Finau also knows how to eat up par-5s, ranking third on Tour in that department this season. His short game doesn't get enough credit at 13th in SG: Around-the-Green, and he's put the putting issues to bed gaining strokes on the greens in his last six starts.
The Middle Tier
Wyndham Clark ($10,400)
The one man that has some legit experience at Castle Pines is the Colorado native of Clark who estimated he's played between 25-30 rounds here over the years. We've seen Clark be able to pour in putts in bunches before, and he will certainly have a leg up on everyone in terms of the greens, but also the start lines off the tees. Clark is also really starting to round back into form at the right time finishing T14-or-better in four of his last five starts with some solid numbers on approach.
Aaron Rai ($10,000)
Rai posted a very solid T16 finish in Memphis following a very hard-fought win in Greensboro with a lot of holes in a short amount of time. He didn't putt as well in Memphis, but for the second straight week he led the field in SG: Approach. On top of that the Englishman is leading the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season. Both of those bode very well for his chances at Castle Pines where he will be on a level playing field with just about everyone in terms of knowledge on the greens.
Billy Horschel ($9,800)
Horschel has hit on something recently and it's led to three straight top-10 finishes. Over that stretch he has gained a whopping 13.72 strokes on approach and those 1.14 strokes per round would rank him comfortably second in SG: Approach on the season. Combine that with how strong Horschel continues to be on the greens and it's hard to see him not in the mix on the weekend. The last time the BMW Championship was played in Colorado it was won by Horschel in 2014 at Cherry Hills.
The Long Shots
Taylor Pendrith ($8,700)
Pendrith has turned into a very consistent player piling up six top-12s and 10 top-25s over his last 13 starts. We have known for awhile that Pendrith is an excellent putter and can really move it off the tee, but his touch with the irons has taken him to the next level. The Canadian has gained strokes on the approach in six straight starts, including last week in Memphis where he ranked seventh.
Will Zalatoris ($8,200)
Zalatoris had not finished inside the top-40 in 11 straight starts going into the FedExCup playoffs, but he showed signs of life in Memphis, the site of his lone PGA Tour win, contending on the weekend before slipping back to T12. Early this season Zalatoris had a strong run of golf that looked like his old self where he gained strokes on approach in eight straight and picked up four top-15 finishes. He is getting back to that now gaining strokes on approach in four of five starts and off the tee in five of six starts. His career changed with a back injury at this tournament in 2022, so you know there's a little extra motivation.
Sepp Straka ($7,900)
It was another poor showing on the greens for Straka who has now lost strokes in four of his last five starts. You have to think unfamiliar greens at Castle Pines could mitigate some of those losses for the Austrian. I still trust Straka more than anyone else in the $7K range because of how good his ball-striking has been. He has gained at least 0.95 strokes per round on approach in nine of his last 13 starts. Straka is also third in driving accuracy on the season.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Even though it is a small field, there are certainly a fair amount of players toward the bottom of the salary board that just are not playing their best golf right now. Max Homa ($7,800) for example has fallen all the way to 83rd in the Data Golf rankings and has lost strokes on approach in five of his last seven starts and off the tee in six of his last eight starts. That will certainly lead to some choices having to be made towards the top, as a lineup with multiple golfers over $11K might be challenging to pull off and feel confident in all six of your selections. The good news is that the guaranteed four rounds does keep things a bit tighter. There aren't many times that we have virtually no course history at all to go off of, but the formula we need to use does seem pretty clear. Load up on great drivers and iron players and take your chances from there.
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