Betting on Golf: The Genesis Invitational

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Updated on February 14, 2023 5:46PM EST

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The West Coast Swing wraps up with this week's Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles.

The action will take place at famed Riviera Country Club, and tournament favorite Jon Rahm, at 8-1 odds, headlines a stacked field that features the top 11 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Max Homa, at 60-1 odds, picked up his second PGA Tour victory, defeating Tony Finau with a birdie on the second playoff hole.

Riviera plays as a par-71 at just over 7,300 yards. There are three par-5s, though the first one -- No. 1, to be precise -- is a short, downhill par-5 that essentially plays as a par-4. The most notable hole on the course is the driveable par-4 10th, with the green surrounded by bunkers and a sloping putting surface that brings both eagle and double bogey into play. In the past, some golfers would go for the green and some would lay up, but last year, just about everyone decided to go big or go home.

Riviera is a true test of all-around ability. The narrow pathways favor distance off the tee, as even the most accurate drivers struggle to hit the fairways at a high percentage. The winner ranked top-3 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green four of the last five years. Reaching the greens in regulation will prove difficult as well, so we'll also want to focus on players that fare well in the scrambling department.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Los Angeles Kings

The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Riviera Country Club since 2017.

2017 winner and two-time runner-up Johnson, who has also recorded three straight top-10s at Riviera, tops the list. He will be a popular selection in one-and-done contests this week, and rightfully so. DJ's course history has the respect of the oddsmakers, who installed him as the fourth choice on the board at 16-1. However, he hasn't finished top-5 on the PGA Tour since his Masters victory in the fall of 2020. Much further down the board is last year's runner-up, Finau, who led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and shot the lowest score in the final round by two strokes. He's certainly a horse for the course, as he also finished first in SG: Tee-to-Green category in 2018 and has made four consecutive cuts here. Even though his form leaves much to be desired, he's too much of a value to ignore at 50-1 odds to win.

Tee-to-Green Titans

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last five tournaments.

List also topped this list when he won a few weeks ago at Torrey Pines, and while he is not one of the bigger names in golf, the stats indicate he's been one of the best out there right now. List is still not being given the respect he deserves by the oddsmakers, as he checks in at 80-1. Even if you pass him up at that mark, he looks like one of the best options to consider in daily fantasy sports contests. A player garnering a lot more respect is Thomas, the third favorite at 14-1. He closed with the second-lowest round in Phoenix and was in great form with his ball striking, ranking second among all players in SG: Tee-to-Green. Thomas missed the cut in his last two appearances in this event, but he has come close here before, as he led by four strokes going into the final round in 2019 but settled for second after a Sunday 75.

Outright Picks

Jon Rahm (8-1)

Although I rarely bet the favorite, and as boring as it may be, I think Rahm has a great chance to get it done in LA. While he has established himself as the No. 1 player in the world, he only won once in the last year, and it feels like he's incredibly close to and overdue for another victory or two. Rahm's worst finish in three starts at Riviera is a T17, and he managed a top-5 finish here last year despite losing strokes on the greens.

Paul Casey (60-1)

Casey heads stateside for the first time this year on the heels of a trio of top-25 finishes overseas. He skipped this event last year but made the cut in his previous six attempts, with a best finish of T2 in 2015. Despite being in his mid-40s, Casey remains one of the best tee-to-green players out there and still looms as a threat to win on Tour.

Corey Conners (100-1)

This bet is mainly about the number, as Conners is priced outside the top 40 selections this week, in the same range as inferior ball strikers like Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Lanto Griffin. Conners is gaining over a stroke per round this season off the tee and on approach combined, and his usually-mediocre putting should be negated at a place where even the best putters struggle inside 10 feet.

Top-10 Wagers

Abraham Ancer (6-1)

Thanks to Ancer's recent play, the experts have given him less than a 15 percent chance to record a top-10. Let's not forget, though, that he was playing like a top-10 golfer for a good chunk of last summer. His play lately has not been awful, as he finished T8 in Saudi Arabia and made his last two cuts stateside. Ancer is bound to get back on track soon, and it could be here, as he made the cut in three of his four trips to Riviera.

Erik van Rooyen (7-1)

This is a good value for a golfer who qualified for the TOUR Championship last season. van Rooyen is coming off a pair of top-12 finishes against quality fields overseas, and he also gained over seven shots off the tee and on approach combined at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Aaron Rai (12-1)

After the rookie missed three straight cuts to begin his first season on Tour, he settled in and failed to play the weekend only once over his last seven events. That included his first top-10 against another strong field at Torrey Pines, a course that grades out similarly to Riviera. Rai has emerged as a strong ball striker, ranking top-40 this season in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Matt Fitzpatrick (-120) over Sam Burns

Fitzpatrick seems to be under the radar despite playing excellent golf since the fall. He picked up a win and a runner-up finish overseas before turning his attention back to the states, and he posted a top-10 finish each of the past two weeks. Burns, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction with back-to-back missed cuts. He hasn't quite looked like the surging version of himself we saw not too long ago.

Joaquin Niemann (-120) over Jason Kokrak

Kokrak isn't a great fit for one-on-ones thanks to his hit-or-miss nature. Sure, he has won twice since last summer, but those are the only top-10 finishes he recorded over that span. His biggest weakness is his play around the green, which will be a factor at Riviera. I'll lay the extra juice to back Niemann, a reliable cut-maker who has three top-10 results in his last five starts.