Heston Kjerstad

Heston Kjerstad

25-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Baltimore Orioles
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Kjerstad made a strong first impression in the majors late last season, but unfortunately he's only eligible in the utility spot to start 2024 in most fantasy leagues. A money-saving pick at No. 2 overall in 2020, Kjerstad famously didn't make his pro debut until midway through the 2022 season due primarily to a heart inflammation condition. He won the Arizona Fall League home run derby after the 2022 season and then slashed .303/.376/.528 with 21 home runs in 122 games across Double-A and Triple-A before getting a brief cup of coffee. While he is limited defensively to designated hitter, first base and occasional corner-outfield work, Kjerstad's bat should be good enough to profile at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. He had a 113.5 mph max exit velocity at Triple-A and a 105.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and then logged a 19.0 Barrel% and a 52.4% Statcast hard-hit rate in 21 batted-ball events in the majors. He didn't show significant lefty/righty splits last year, but Baltimore has a talented enough roster that the lefty-hitting Kjerstad may still sit against some lefties when he's in the majors. However, Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays much better for lefties than righties, so he should be able to hit for plenty of power, even if he's getting platooned. The stacked 40-man roster clouds Kjerstad's playing time outlook at the outset of 2024. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#324
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Orioles in March of 2024.
Homers in Sunday's win
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 29, 2024
Kjerstad hit a solo home run in his lone at-bat during Sunday's 6-2 win over the Twins.
ANALYSIS
Kjerstad was a defensive replacement in right field and went yard when he came to the plate in the eighth inning. Since returning from a concussion in mid-September, he's gone 7-for-30 (.233) over his last 11 contests of the regular season. Kjerstad posted a .253/.351/.394 slash line, four homers, 14 RBI, eight runs scored and one stolen base over 114 plate appearances. If he makes the Orioles' postseason roster, he'll likely be a bench option.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
2
7
5
5
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
2024
 
 
+11%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
-100%
OPS vs RHP
2022
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .765 17 0 0 2 0 .353 .353 .412
Since 2022vs Right .744 129 11 6 15 1 .232 .333 .411
2024vs Left .813 16 0 0 2 0 .375 .375 .438
2024vs Right .732 98 8 4 12 1 .229 .347 .386
2023vs Left .000 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2023vs Right .773 31 3 2 3 0 .241 .290 .483
2022vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+40%
OPS at Home
2024
 
 
+43%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+37%
OPS at Home
2022
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .855 82 6 3 10 1 .296 .390 .465
Since 2022Away .610 64 5 3 7 0 .190 .266 .345
2024Home .846 69 5 2 8 1 .305 .406 .441
2024Away .592 45 3 2 6 0 .175 .267 .325
2023Home .891 13 1 1 2 0 .250 .308 .583
2023Away .652 19 2 1 1 0 .222 .263 .389
2022Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Heston Kjerstad compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.30
 
BB Rate
8.8%
 
K Rate
28.9%
 
BABIP
.339
 
ISO
.141
 
AVG
.253
 
OBP
.351
 
SLG
.394
 
OPS
.745
 
wOBA
.330
 
Exit Velocity
90.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
28.4%
 
Barrels/PA
3.5%
 
Expected BA
.217
 
Expected SLG
.352
 
Sprint Speed
25.5 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
45.5%
 
Line Drive %
19.7%
 
Fly Ball %
34.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2021
There's a feel-good element to Kjerstad's 2022 season. He was selected by Baltimore with the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, but a heart condition sidelined him through the 2021 season and he missed the first two months of last season with hamstring strain before finally making his pro debut in June. Kjerstad did what he needed to do as a 23-year-old at Single-A, logging a 228 wRC+ and quickly forcing a promotion to High-A. His 25.3 K% and 71.2 Contact% at High-A are concerning marks, given his age and pedigree. We can forgive his limited power output somewhat given how much Aberdeen suppresses home runs, but the hit tool concerns are real. He made noise in the Arizona Fall League with a .357 average, five home runs, a runner-up finish in the home run derby and the league MVP award, but his 30.0 K% and 4.8 BB% against mediocre AFL pitching is quite worrisome. Kjerstad has legitimate excuses for the fact he will be old for the remaining minor-league levels he will play at, but it's possible, if not probable that he will be overmatched as a 24-year-old at Double-A.
Kjerstad had a 21.7 K% and a 7.0 BB% as a sophomore at Arkansas and a 10:3 K:BB in 43 AB with Team USA in 2019. Those aren't the plate skills of a middling defensive outfielder who would typically go No. 2 overall in the draft, which is where Baltimore selected him last year. He improved his swing decisions (9:7 K:BB) in 16 games as a junior, but the majority of those games came against mediocre competition. In 150 games for Arkansas, he slashed .343/.421/.590 with 37 home runs. He is 6-foot-3, 200 pounds and bats left-handed, profiling as passable in left or right field. It will have to be his all-fields power that carries him to the majors. He seems unlikely to log high OBPs by corner outfield standards, and it would be a win if he develops into a .265 hitter, as there are questions about his ability to hit premium stuff. A non-sports related medical issue prevented him from taking part in fall instructs.
More Fantasy News
Likely to lose work to Mountcastle
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 25, 2024
Kjerstad is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Three hits in Saturday's loss
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 22, 2024
Kjerstad went 3-for-4 with a hit-by-pitch and a run scored in Saturday's 6-4 extra-inning loss to the Tigers.
ANALYSIS
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Filling strong-side platoon role
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 19, 2024
Kjerstad will start in right field and bat seventh in Thursday's game against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Returns from IL
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 15, 2024
The Orioles reinstated Kjerstad (concussion) from the 10-day injured list Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Starts up rehab at High-A
OFBaltimore Orioles
Concussion
September 9, 2024
Kjerstad (concussion) began a rehab assignment with High-A Aberdeen on Saturday and has gone 2-for-5 with a walk and a run over his first two contests with the affiliate.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Promotion coming?
OFBaltimore Orioles
April 22, 2024
The Orioles are expected to promote Kjerstad to the major leagues after Austin Hays was placed on the 10-day injured list with a calf injury, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Kjerstad has been tearing it up at Triple-A Norfolk, hitting .349 with 10 homers, 30 RBI, one stolen base and 25 runs over 86 at-bats. The club is hopeful that Hays will be able to return from the injured list following the 10-day minimum, so this could be a brief promotion for the 25-year-old if the team does ultimately decide to bring him up.
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