This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Valspar Championship Betting Preview
The Florida Swing concludes this week with the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club. Following back-to-back weeks of marquee events, we still have a surprisingly strong field with 10 of the top-25 players in the OWGR teeing it up, headlined by tournament favorite Tommy Fleetwood at 11-1 odds. Last year, longshot Peter Malnati (300-1) captured his second Tour victory by two strokes over Cameron Young.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
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Course Overview
Par 71, 7,352 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last four years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.3
- SG: Approach: 10.5
- SG: Around-the-Green: 33.5
- SG: Putting: 5.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 6.0
- Driving Distance: 15.0
- Driving Accuracy: 33.5
A bit unusual for a par 71, Copperhead has five par-3s and four par-5s and is most known for the "Snake Pit" – a difficult three-hole closing stretch that starts with water in play off the tee on the par-4 16th and is followed by a long par-3 and long par-4 in which the three holes combined to play +0.59 last year. The weather report is getting a lot of attention with rain and wind expected Thursday afternoon, likely giving an advantage to those in the early-late wave. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow tree-lined fairways that average 26 yards wide and surrounded by thick rough that will definitely put an emphasis on hitting fairways. We can see from the stats above that iron play stands out with a lot of approach shots coming from 175+ yards out. As always, this is a difficult test in which the winner has been 12-under or worse in four of the last six events here.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Innisbrook since 2021:
- Sam Burns: 68.3
- Xander Schauffele: 68.6
- Viktor Hovland: 68.6
- Tommy Fleetwood: 68.8
- Davis Riley: 69.4
It's not much of a surprise to see two-time Valspar champion Burns at the top of the list, although his strong run at the venue ended last year as he missed the cut by one. His success at Copperhead has been a combination of solid iron play and putting, although his approach numbers the last two weeks give some cause for concern. Burns comes in as tied for the fifth choice on the board at 22-1 odds. Another player on this list that's had success at the difficult venue is the man to beat according to the oddsmakers in Fleetwood, who has managed to avoid an over-par round across two appearances, leading to finishes of T16 and T3. He's also started the year off well, finishing no worse than T22 through four events and is fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green early on this season.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Shane Lowry: 1.10
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.05
- Sepp Straka: 1.00
- Henrik Norlander: 0.99
- Justin Thomas: 0.98
With iron play being a key statistic to hone in on, Lowry makes a great target at Copperhead but is surprisingly at 40-1 odds. After finishing runner-up at Pebble Beach, he's posted three top-20s since and there's little reason to think he can't keep the momentum going at a place he finished T12 the last time he played here in 2022. Also in good form with his iron play is Lowry's Ryder Cup teammate Straka, who has had an excellent run during the Florida Swing with three consecutive top-15 finishes. This hasn't been a place he's shown much form at although he's only played in 2019 and 2024, and his ascension this year to 11th in the OWGR makes him worthy of being the third choice at 16-1 odds.
Valspar Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Will Zalatoris (40-1)
We're going on almost a year since Zalatoris last recorded a top-10 but that's not to say he hasn't been trending in the right direction with three top-25s over his last five starts. He ranked in the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach at Bay Hill two weeks ago and is back in the form that makes him capable of winning again.
Nicolai Hojgaard (65-1)
Hojgaard will be making his tournament debut but we saw Young finish runner-up in his first trip last year and Hojgaard has the early-late wave advantage. He posted a top-10 in Mexico last month and was a solid T18 at PGA National, so we know he can play well on a difficult Florida course.
Taylor Moore (70-1)
The course history angle leads us to Moore, as the 2023 event champion followed it up with a T12 result last year. He's done it with his iron play, gaining 1.36 strokes on approach over the last two years at Innisbrook. He's also posted two top-10s this year.
Valspar Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Luke Clanton (11-2)
Clanton has been back-and-forth between the PGA Tour and college golf, and in between clinching his card with a top-20 at PGA National, he's won a pair of collegiate events. His strengths are his distance and putting, which led to another top-20 at Torrey Pines in January.
Max McGreevy (15-2)
McGreevy checks a lot of boxes when it comes to course fit as a shorter but accurate driver and a strong iron player, especially from 150+. The third year Tour pro has three top-25s across his last four starts, highlighted by finishing three back at the Cognizant Classic.
Sam Ryder (12-1)
These are some generous odds for a player that's quietly been playing some good golf. Ryder has made the cut in all seven of his starts and posted three top-25s. He lacks the elite results but the top-10s should be coming as he ranks 35th in SG: Total this year.
Valspar Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Adam Scott (+110) over Tom Kim
I'm surprised to see Kim as such a large favorite considering his level of play this year hasn't been very good with just one top-40 result in seven starts. That makes him difficult to target in matchups. Scott has typically skipped this event, having last played in 2018 where he finished T16. His short game is much better and that's always important at tough setups.
Matt Wallace (-115) over Thorbjorn Olesen
I know Wallace hasn't been in good form this year, but a lot of that has been due to struggles on the greens for a traditionally solid putter. This is also a great place for him to get back on track considering he's posted back-to-back top-20s here. I like him over Olesen, who has struggled to translate his strong play on the DP World Tour stateside with only two top-25s since the start of 2024.
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