This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
This four-game playoff slate provides us with the perfect opportunity to intently break down each game and to make assumptions that can help build our DFS lineups. Assumptions about exploitable matchups and which targets the quarterbacks will lock in on. Assumptions about game flow. Assumptions about prepared game plans and in-game adjustments to that game plan. Part of this puzzle we are building requires playing the games out in our heads and visualizing where the points will come from. Only then will your lineup make sense and is built with confidence where last-minute hemming, hawing and lineup tweaking won't be necessary. Get your head in the game and let's build some confident lineups.
Remember, Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants so your best bet is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily-targeted number one WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in match-ups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian – target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places – the most obvious plays are not always the correct ones. Let's dig in.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Peyton Manning (DEN, $26) - One of the biggest lessons we've learned playing DFS this season is that going against the grain in certain spots is essential to cashing in or winning the big GPPs. It's quite possible we have a scenario this weekend where all of the top dogs at the QB position get mired in slow, low-scoring affairs and end up with less than 20 fantasy points each. And at the same time, vintage Peyton returns out-of-nowhere and is firing on all cylinders to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders against the 30th-ranked Steelers' secondary. If that's the scenario you've played out in your head, then you just saved ten bucks by taking Peyton and using the extra money for your WR3, turning Markus Wheaton ($15) into Sanders ($25), or at TE, turning Heath Miller ($15) into Greg Olsen ($25). Peyton is a shell of his former self and is not at full strength, but it only takes a couple of big plays to pay off in the midst of a tough slate. If you want to be the guy sitting at the top of GPP Mountain, you've got to find spots to differentiate. This feels like it could be one of those spots.
Steven Jackson (NE, $14) - Jackson may not find himself on many of our cash game rosters this weekend, but he needs to be on our short list for consideration in GPPs. Despite being old in football years, with heavy mileage on his legs and not much left in the tank, Jackson is expected to be the Patriots power back this weekend. A task Brandon Bolden did not handle all that well after LeGarrette Blount went down for the season. You won't be getting those half-points for receptions, and you may not get many yards. But what you can get are a couple of touchdowns. You can expect Brady to get the Patriots' offense into the red zone and near the goal line on a few occasions. That's where Jackson can hopefully punch one in, in the first quarter, and gain some trust should the opportunity present itself again in the game. James White and his receiving prowess has the higher floor among Patriots running backs and will be the much chalkier option. Going Jackson over White isn't just being different for the sake of being different. It's a credible scenario that could play out before our eyes this Saturday.
Devin Funchess (CAR, $14) - Uh oh, here we go again. You're afraid because it's the playoffs, and he's a rookie who is still getting accustomed to the league and has been getting out-snapped by three other receivers on the team in Ted Ginn, Philly Brown and Jerricho Cotchery. I get it. But what I also get is that Funchess is a natural athlete, a big-bodied, versatile end zone option who actually has more red zone targets (seven) than anyone on the team over the last six games, including veteran Greg Olsen. Funchess also led the receiving corps with eight total targets in the final game of the regular season. Cam Newton likes Funchess and trusts him near the goal line. In a weekend of limited trustworthy options among receivers under $15, don't you think Cam deserves a little bit of our trust?
Other Against-the-Grainers:
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB, $32)
RB: Ronnie Hillman (DEN, $17), James Starks (GB, $16)
WR: Martavis Bryant (PIT, $24), Tyler Lockett (SEA, $17), J.J. Nelson (ARI, $10)
TE: Heath Miller (PIT, $14)
DEF: Carolina Panthers ($13)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Carson Palmer (ARI, $35) - Palmer and the Birds hope to continue their regular season domination as they take on a Packers squad they easily defeated (38-8) back in Week 16. Palmer is the de facto cash game play of the weekend and will easily yield the highest ownership rate among signal callers. The Cardinals are the biggest favorite (-7) and also boast the highest team total (28) of the eight teams in action. Palmer was incredibly steady week-to-week, throwing at least two touchdown passes in 11 of 16 regular season starts, ending the year with a 31:9 TD:INT ratio and averaging 20 FP per game. The Packers were solid against passers this season, allowing just 20 touchdowns through the air – the fourth lowest mark in the NFL. Nevertheless, Palmer has numerous weapons at his disposal, and one of the game's best minds in coach Bruce Arians. With Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady facing tough defenses, it makes sense to start cash rosters with Palmer and build from there.
Running Backs
David Johnson (ARI, $34) - Last week, DFS players who avoided a chalky, expensive and uber-high-percentage Antonio Brown escaped unscathed as Brown did not score a touchdown and finished with a very mediocre (for him) 15.4 fantasy points. This week, passing on the most popular option in David Johnson should be done at one's own peril. Johnson is far and away the most expensive running back on the board. He also happens to be the ideal building block for DFS lineups this weekend in a game that implies positive game flow for the Cardinals, with the highest projected point total. Playing Johnson with Palmer and your choice of Cardinals' receiver will be a popular base for your competitors as well, with the difference between cashing or falling short depends upon your astute value plays at RB2, WR3 and Flex. If you're feeling defiant and want to save at RB1 by avoiding DJ, do so in GPPs only.
C.J. Anderson (DEN, $17) - Anderson will be ranked as a top-three running back on most sites. When you consider his bargain price tag here and couple that with assumptions of a run-heavy Broncos game plan, you've got yourself a popular option as your second running back. Anderson was a big disappointment as a first-round bust for season-long players, but much of his struggles can be attributed to toe and ankle injuries that are no longer of grave concern. The biggest roadblock to Anderson's success this weekend is having to split carries with fellow back, Ronnie Hillman. In the season finale, each had 15 carries, surpassed 90 yards and scored touchdowns. Anderson is the more powerful and decisive of the two, and bested Hillman in YPC (4.7 to 4.2) during the regular season. Expect him to get more carries and perhaps get back into the fold of the passing game again with Manning at the helm.
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman (NE, $31) - Edelman is planning to go 'full throttle' Saturday after missing two months on the gridiron. Tom Brady and the Patriots have struggled without him, going 3-3 since his Week 10 foot injury. In the nine games he did play, Edelman scored seven touchdowns, averaging nearly seven receptions and 15.2 fantasy points per game. Edelman will be the priciest wideout this weekend if Steelers' Antonio Brown ends up inactive. It is certainly a risky proposition taking up 15.5 percent of your cap space on a single player, especially with the possibility of aggravating his injury. Nevertheless, Edelman is a warrior. Don't be surprised if he knocks the rust off early on the game and ends up with 20-plus fantasy points. Brady has been waiting for him.
Demaryius Thomas (DEN, $29) - Part of the fun of piecing our DFS puzzle together is having to decide between two similarly-priced players when we can only fit one. Unless you're planning to go down a path less traveled with a cheaper Peyton Manning or Alex Smith as your quarterback, you are likely paying up for a QB, David Johnson and one of the three big tight ends (Gronk, Olsen, Kelce). Thomas is a much safer cash play than Edelman, but it is possible to lock in your solid floor with both. The Peyton-Demaryius connection has been the league's most consistent and productive these past few seasons. The two have combined for 35 touchdowns between 2012 and 2014. The Broncos are expected to pound the running game on Saturday, but the Steelers are actually more susceptible to aerial attacks. Thomas struck pay dirt twice against them the week before Christmas, and that was with Brock Osweiler at the helm. Thomas has had his share of costly drops this season, but is still one of the most reliable and most heavily-targeted receivers in football, regardless of who is under center. He is the only receiver in football with 90-plus receptions and over 1,300 yards in four straight seasons. Talk about a floor you can eat off of.
John Brown (ARI, $21) - Sites around the fantasy world will tell you that Michael Floyd is the guy here. Floyd had a remarkable run in the second half as Palmer's go-to-guy, hitting triple-digit receiving yards in five of seven games starting in November. Everyone wants a piece of the Cardinals passing game this week. Fitzgerald is the most expensive option, which leaves us with Floyd and our boy, John Brown. Brown spreads around from the left side to the right side to slot quite frequently, but will still see plenty of Damarious Randall in coverage, Green Bay's cornerback on the left side of the field where Brown will see a fair share of routes. Randall also happens to be the most burnable of the Packers' corners. More often than not, Floyd will tango with Sam Shields, who is the team's best corner and is expected back in action this week after missing three games due to a concussion. Brown is almost as fast as Floyd, runs immaculately precise routes and has built a great amount of trust with Palmer this season. Nobody knows for sure who the red zone action will go to ahead of time, but Brown is easily one of the weekend's best bets for a deep ball catch-and-run or a red zone touchdown pass. All for the reasonable price of 21 dollars.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC, $23) - Feel free to give one of the less-reliable TE options like Richard Rodgers or Owen Daniels a try this weekend, but leave that for your GPPs. Unless you've stacked pricey guys out of control, you should be able to fit one of Kelce, Rob Gronkowski or Greg Olsen. Of the trio, Kelce is my guy. With Jeremy Maclin possibly doubtful for the game, Alex Smith will have no choice but to force-feed 'Gronk Jr' throughout the game. We know that Belichick does wonders limiting the production of opposing team's top weapons, but Kelce, like Gronk himself, may not be easily managed. Last week against a stout Texans defense, Kelce caught eight of 10 targets for 128 yards, leading all receivers over the weekend. If Maclin does indeed play, that should help keep some of those double or triple teams off of Kelce. Belichick's plans don't work every single time, and I believe this is one of those weeks it doesn't. Kelce will feast on Saturday, and if they pull off the road upset, he will be hungry for more as they shuffle on down the road to the Super Bowl.
Defense/Special Teams
Denver Broncos ($13) - It's certainly a tough week to pick defenses as nothing truly stares back at you screaming 'play me!' The closest to such a scenario would be the Broncos on home field. The Steelers may be without their top weapon Antonio Brown, have a quarterback with torn ligaments and sprained joints in his shoulders and are without their top weapon in the running game, DeAngelo Williams. This may bring upon us a scenario where the Broncos are able to build a solid lead, which would lead to Roethlisberger (or better yet for the Broncos, Landry Jones) forcing throws downfield that could be primed for the picking. Note that Roethlisberger may be limited in his ability to throw downfield at all, but with some pre-game medicine, I'm certain he will find a way. The rest of the options are similar in that you've got solid defenses like the Panthers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Cardinals who are all facing quarterbacks with TD:INT ratios among the best in the league this year. The Broncos are the most obvious play this week, and are the team I plan to enter all GPPs and cash games with.
Honorable Mentions:
QB: Cam Newton (CAR, $33)
RB: Spencer Ware (KC, $19), James White (NE, $15)
WR: Michael Floyd (ARI, $21), Randall Cobb (GB, $17), Jerricho Cotchery (CAR, $10)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (NE, $28)
DEF: Carolina Panthers ($13)
