This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
GAMES
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford torched the Bears secondary last Sunday Night in a highly efficient performance, throwing for 321 yards and 3 scores on only 26 passing attempts (76.9% completion rate and 12.35 yards per attempt, both near league-highs for the week). Meanwhile, the Colts defense allowed a similar high-efficiency game to Russell Wilson last week, with Wilson throwing for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns on only 23 passing attempts (78.3% completions and 11 yards per attempt). Put those together and it likely spells trouble for the Colts, especially with star cornerback Xavier Rhodes out again this week.
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (-110)
The Cardinals are coming off a surprisingly strong effort in their dominant 38-13 road win over the Titans, with QB Kyler Murray throwing for 4 touchdowns (and running for another) while completing long-gainers of 20+ yards to five different receivers. That doesn't bode well for the Vikings, who gave up multiple long gainers to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week. The Vikings weren't much better vs. the run, with Joe Mixon able to pile up 127 yards and a touchdown. Mixon was also effective through the air (4 catches for 23 yards), while the Cardinals have an even better receiving back in Chase Edmonds (4 catches for 43 yards last week). Lots to like with the Cardinals offense this week.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110)
The Chargers return home after a solid road win over the well-respected Washington defense and should face an easier assignment this week vs. the Cowboys, who got lit up for 379 yards and 4 touchdowns by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in last Thursday's NFL opener. The Cowboys also allowed 34 passing touchdowns last year, tied for 3rd-highest in the league. This sets up well for the Chargers' high-powered passing attack, especially with the Cowboys now missing their Pro Bowl DE DeMarcus Lawrence.
PLAYER PROPS
Christian McCaffrey over 6.0 receptions (-130)
CMC was clearly (and expectedly) the focal point of the Panthers' offense in his return from an injury-plagued season last year, hooking up with new QB Sam Darnold for 9 targets (notably, catching all 9 of them) for a team-high 89 yards last week. He also handled 10 targets (again, catching all 10) in his most recent start from last year, a November game vs. Kansas City. There just seems no reason that he shouldn't be heavily involved once again, and with his proficiency catching short passes out of the backfield, this seems like an easily attainable number for the star Panthers RB.
KJ Hamler over 35.5 receiving yards (-125)
All three of Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler's receiving roles should expand this week following the loss of Denver's top receiver Jerry Jeudy to an ankle injury. Regarding K.J. Hamler, he tends to occupy the slot, which is where Jeudy did much of his work last week. Hamler is also Denver's top deep threat, so in addition to his likely increased reception total, he could easily take a big chunk out of this yardage total on just one play. Hamler should be quite active this week, and is a good bet to surpass this smallish number.
DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions (-115)
Rookie WR DeVonta Smith has quickly established himself as the Eagles' top receiving threat, garnering 71 yards on 8 targets (both team highs) in his NFL debut last week. His connection with Jalen Hurts should only continue to grow, and it probably doesn't hurt that the Eagles could find themselves playing from behind this week. Also of note, Lions QB Jared Goff threw a whopping 57 passes vs. the 49ers last week for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns (a game in which the Lions scored 33 points), so it's safe to assume the Eagles will be looking to put the ball in the air here. Seems like a low reception total if Smith continues on his current trajectory.
