Target Breakdown: 2023 WR Season Review & 2024 PPR Rankings

2023 was a down year for NFL offenses overall — the second in a row — but a good season for Alpha WR1s. Tyreek Hill topped 1,700 yards again and might have made a run at 2,000 if not for an ankle injury in December, and he wasn't even the overall WR1 in most fantasy formats. That honor instead went to CeeDee Lamb, who has improved his totals for targets, receptions, yards and TDs with each passing season since he entered the NFL in 2020.

Other highlights included Amon-Ra St. Brown joining Lamb in the progression from WR1 to high-end WR1 and Justin Jefferson topping 1,000 yards despite missing seven games. Fifth-round pick Puka Nacua set a rookie record with 1,486 receiving yards, leading the charge for an impressive 2023 draft class that also featured highly promising debut campaigns from Jordan Addison, Tank Dell (leg), Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers and Jayden Reed.

There was another batch of rookies that didn't exactly help fantasy teams in 2023 but did enough to warrant breakout consideration for 2024. This includes Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dontayvion Wicks, Demario Douglas, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, Parker Washington, Trey Palmer, A.T. Perry and Andrei Iosivas. We can also add a couple of early picks that looked like busts to that list — Quentin Johnston and Jonathan Mingo — given that both have impressive physical tools and now get new coaches and offensive coordinators for Year 2.

The incoming draft class for 2024 is actually more highly regarded than 2023's group, with headliners Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers considered locks to go Top 10. There are at least another handful of guys garnering first-round consideration, and then a bunch more that figure to be taken Day 2. I'm no draft expert, but those who are say it's a strong class in terms of both depth and high-end talent.

That might help boost NFL offenses back toward their pre-2022 level of scoring, especially if the ballyhooed rookie QB class also pans out and veteran signal-callers have better injury luck than they did this past season. Even if that does happen, the consecutive impressive rookie classes at WR could help hasten decline phases for some veteran pass catchers, shifting targets away from old players and toward young ones. 

Mike Evans just had one of his best seasons in a contract year, but there were some other 30-something wide receivers that showed signs of decline in 2023, namely DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett and Davante Adams. Any of those guys could reasonably end up with a new team next year, as could 31-year-old Keenan Allen, who had the second-most fantasy points of his career in 2023 despite missing the final four games with a heel injury.

Below you'll find some stuff that looks back at the 2023 season and other things looking ahead to 2024. My initial PPR rankings for next year include 10 rookies among the Top 70 and four among the Top 40, with Harrison leading the way at No. 19. That's actually an extremely conservative ranking for the Ohio State product relative to where he's going in early best ball drafts, with many fantasy players and draft analysts viewing him as the best WR prospect since Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson.

Here's what you'll find below:

1. 2023 Awards
2. Offseason Injury Rehab
3. Free Agents, Holdout Candidates & Potential Cap Casualties
4. 2024 PPR Rankings
5. Cumulative WR Production by Team
6. 2023 Stat Tables

Backfield Breakdown: 2023 RB Season Review & 2024 PPR Rankings

2023 Awards 🏆

Real-Life MVP: Tyreek Hill

Fantasy MVP:  CeeDee Lamb

Rookie of the Year:  Puka Nacua

Breakout Player:  Nico Collins

Comeback Player:  Deebo Samuel

Most Improved:  George Pickens

Real-Life LVP:  Allen Lazard

Fantasy LVP:  Tee Higgins

Most Disappointing: Jahan Dotson

Offseason Injury Rehab 🚑

These are the wide receivers that finished 2023 on injured reserve and/or suffered serious injuries late in the year. Some of the guys listed below may already be fine, as it's sometimes tough to read the situation when a player gets injured toward the end of the season and is placed on injured reserve without further comment.

Mike Williams (ACL tear)

Williams suffered an ACL tear Week 3 and underwent surgery 31 days later Oct. 25. Most of the "twitter docs" said it looked like a multi-ligament injury, potentially including MCL and meniscus damage. That hasn't been confirmed, with information sparse ever since the surgery announcement in late October. It'll certainly be an interesting offseason for Williams, who has $20 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final year of his contract in 2024, including a $3 million roster bonus due March 15. 

Keenan Allen is also entering the final season of his deal — with $23.1 million in non-guaranteed money — and new head coach John Harbaugh figures to prioritize the running game at least a little more than the Chargers did in recent years. Williams turns 30 in October, FWIW, and if he does stay with the Chargers it'll almost certainly involve a pay cut or extension that lowers both his cap hit and his earnings.

Tank Dell (broken fibula)

The 165-pound third-round pick might've reached 1,000 yards as a rookie if not for the broken left fibula he suffered Week 13. He had surgery Dec. 4, one day after the injury, which would seem to suggest he avoided major ligament damage or anything else that would cause massive swelling and make his rehab process more difficult. Dell may have some limitations this spring but should be ready for training camp. Even if his size remains slightly concerning, it's hard not to be excited about a guy who had 709 receiving yards and seven TDs on 494 snaps during his rookie year.

Kendrick Bourne (ACL tear)

Bourne tore an ACL on Oct. 29 and had surgery Nov. 15. Reports at the time suggested he'd be ready for training camp in 2024, though obviously we can't know that for sure given the serious nature of his injury. The series of events does at least hint that he avoided major damage beyond the ACL, which should help Bourne find a new home this offseason as he enters free agency ahead of his age-29 season. He says he's ahead of schedule and wants to stay with the Patriots, per ESPN's Mike Reiss. Bourne mentioned that his physical therapist is living with him right now to help him strengthen the quadriceps and leg around his knee injury.

Michael Thomas (knee)

Thomas posted mediocre stat lines week after week throughout the first half of the season and then missed the final seven games with a knee injury. The Saints expected him to return at one point, but by late December it became pretty clear that wouldn't happen. Thomas turns 31 in March and technically has one season remaining on a strange contract full of incentives and unique bonuses. It sounds like he'll either rework his deal again this offseason or be released; a lot of football sites list him as an impending free agent even though he technically isn't.

Russell Gage (ruptured patellar tendon)

Gage suffered this uncommon injury in August and missed the final season of his three-year contract. He had a 51-426-5 receiving line over 13 games in 2022, his first season in Tampa Bay, and he's now due $10 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final year of the deal. Gage presumably will accept a pay cut or be released; either way, he'll have a difficult path back to fantasy relevance as a 28-year-old coming back from a brutal injury. Simply playing in the NFL again would be a win.

Tim Patrick (Achilles)

Patrick suffered season-ending injuries during training camp the past two years; an ACL tear in 2022 and an Achilles' tear in 2023. He's 30 years old and has one season remaining on a three-year, $30 million contract, with a non-guaranteed $9.5 million base salary and $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses. Patrick presumably will either accept a pay cut or eventually be released. For fantasy managers, there are better uses of a late-round pick.

Marquise Brown (heel)

Brown's heel injury was first reported in late November. He played through it, initially, but then made early exits from two games (Weeks 13, 15) and ultimately missed the final three games. There's been no report it's a serious injury, with most chatter instead focusing on Brown's impending free agency (he played out 2023 under the fifth-year option on his rookie contract). I actually think a return to Arizona makes sense, especially if he's the No. 2 receiver in an offense with Marvin Harrison and TE Trey McBride. Hollywood is a good player, just not a great one, and he's mostly been tasked with No. 1 WR duties to this point in his career. Granted, the scenario that works best in real life might not hold the most fantasy appeal.

Jonathan Mingo (foot)

Mingo missed the final two games of his rookie season with a foot injury of unknown severity. Prior to that, he was perhaps the least efficient pass catcher in the league, with Carolina seemingly forcing him targets due to a lack of other options (and quite possibly an awareness of the draft capital used to select him). There hasn't been any update on Mingo this winter.

  JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle)

Smith-Schuster had his best game as a Patriot in Week 14 (90 yards), then missed Weeks 15 and 16, and then was placed on injured reserve for Weeks 17 and 18. His three-year contract includes a full guarantee for his $7 million base salary in 2024... oops. The ankle injury probably isn't too serious, but any hope for a serious return to fantasy relevance would depend on finding a new team, which would only happen via trade.

  Jalin Hyatt (hamstring)

The rookie third-round pick suffered a hamstring injury Week 18 and was ruled out for the rest of the game. It's probably not a big deal for this offseason, but I haven't seen anything to confirm that.

Free Agents / Potential Holdouts / Cap Casualties 💰💰💰

Free Agents 

Michael Pittman

Mike Evans

 Tee Higgins

Calvin Ridley

Marquise Brown

Gabe Davis

Tyler Boyd

Noah Brown

Odell Beckham

Kendrick Bourne (ACL)

Curtis Samuel

Darnell Mooney

Demarcus Robinson

Josh Reynolds

K.J. Osborn

Others: DJ Chark, Chris Moore, Van Jefferson, Nelson Agholor, Mecole Hardman Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Brandon Powell, Trenton Irwin, Trent Sherfield, Mack Hollins, KhaDarel Hodge, Jalen Reagor, Alex Erickson, Quez Watkins, Olamide Zaccheaus, Julio Jones, Ray-Ray McCloud, Chase Claypool, Randall Cobb, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, Richie James, Jamison Crowder, Robbie Chosen, Devin Duvernay, Trent Taylor, River Cracraft, Equanimeous St. Brown, Jamal Agnew

Holdout Candidates

Unlike their teammates in the backfield, big-name WRs typically avoid holdouts the easy way... by convincing their teams to give them the big bucks before it ever comes to that. It does happen occasionally, so let's take a look at guys that might consider holding out (if only from practices) ahead of contract years in 2024.

Justin Jefferson (scheduled for fifth-year option in 2024)

CeeDee Lamb (scheduled for fifth-year option in 2024)

 Brandon Aiyuk (scheduled for fifth-year option in 2024)

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Nico Collins

Ja'Marr Chase (likely getting fifth-year option for 2025)

DeVonta Smith (likely getting fifth-year option for 2025)

Jaylen Waddle (likely getting fifth-year option for 2025)

Potential Cap Casualties

The 'savings' listed next to each player is in real-money terms. I know people like to talk about cap hits, but really the cap can be manipulated any which way for a given season and what ultimately matters is the money that's actually paid out (or avoided). If I say that a team saves $15 million by releasing a guy, they might not realize all that "savings" in 2024 cap space... it could instead be split between 2024 and 2025 due to bonus money accelerating onto the current year's cap.

If that's a big problem, the team can just move money around on another contract. There are perhaps a few teams with limited flexibility in that sense — well, actually, it's mostly just the Saints — but generally speaking that's the smart way to view things if you want to think how teams need to think. I'll spare you the lecture on opportunity cost.

Mike Williams (knee - $20 million in savings)

Keenan Allen ($23 million savings)

Chris Godwin ($20 million)

Tyler Lockett ($17 million savings each of next two years)

DeAndre Hopkins ($16 million savings)

Courtland Sutton ($13.5-14.1 million savings each of next two years)

Diontae Johnson ($10 million savings)

Brandin Cooks ($8 million savings)

 Zay Jones (~$8 million savings)

Michael Gallup ($9.5 million savings in 2024; ~$11.5 million apiece in 2025-26)

Darius Slayton (~$6.2 million savings)

Robert Woods ($5 million savings)

Deonte Harty (~$4.1 million savings)

Michael Thomas (knee)

Hunter Renfrow (~$11.9 million savings)

Lockett is perhaps the most interesting case, with $17 million in non-guaranteed compensation for each of the two remaining years on his contract. He'd probably get paid similarly on the open market, but Seattle might prefer the cap space after using a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023. Lockett turns 32 in September and will work with a new head coach and offensive coordinator even if he ends up staying in Seattle.

Johnson is another borderline case, scheduled for $10 million in non-guaranteed compensation in 2024, the final year of his contract. You could reasonably argue for keeping him, trading him or cutting him, though the recent hiring of OC Arthur Smith isn't super promising for an undersized WR who mostly makes his living on short passes and YAC.

Allen and Hopkins seem fairly paid, more or less, but there's at least some risk of being released. Extensions might make more sense, especially for Allen. New coaching staffs are also a factor there, and it's possible one or both would even have some trade value on their current deals.

Initial 2024 PPR Rankings (Top 70) 📈

Cumulative WR Production by Team 

Per-Game Averages (PPR Scoring)

2023 Stat Tables for WRs

Playing Time / Alignment

Minimum: 20% Route Share

• RT = Routes Run
• RT% = % of team's pass plays on which player ran a route
• RT/Sn = Routes Run divided by total snaps
• MTN = # of snaps on which player was in motion at time of the snap

Receiving Stats

• T Sh = % of team targets (in active games only)
• TPRR = Targets per Route Run
• YPRR = Yards per Route Run
• AY = Air Yards
• AY Sh = % of team air yards (in active games only)
• aDOT = average Depth of Target
• EZ Tg = # of targets seen in end zone