Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

Late-season AFC North games tend toward lower scoring in general, and the Week 17 Sunday night matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh might prove one of the more extreme examples of this. With Lamar Jackson (knee) out the Greg Roman offense is as impotent as ever, and that's really saying something. The Steelers, meanwhile, are dealing with their worst offense since they drafted Ben Roethlisberger. The showdown slate will have its winners all the same, even if kicking and defense play a bigger role than usual. The over/under is 35.5 with Baltimore favored by 2.5 points.

QUARTERBACKS

Tyler Huntley ($9400 DK, $14500 FD) just can't throw the ball downfield and everyone knows it now, so the field will always be small for the Baltimore offense when he's on the field. While Huntley initially benefited from the element of surprise when he popped up in 2021, defenses know they can tee off on his route runners within a certain window of time and route depth, and now everything is impractically difficult for the Ravens in the passing game. There's nothing to be done about it but run, but even that has been a struggle for Huntley in 2022 – he's averaging just 3.1 yards per carry after averaging 6.3 yards per carry last year.

Kenny Pickett ($9200 DK, $15000 FD) might not be a good passer but he's worlds better than Huntley, and probably not much less of a runner. Indeed, Pickett is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on the year and should continue to run more effectively than Huntley because of the superior passing. With that said, the Ravens pass defense has improved since its early-season struggles, so this is a less than inviting matchup for Pickett. That the game is in Baltimore is an added concern.

RUNNING BACKS

Both J.K. Dobbins ($10000 DK, $12000 FD) and Gus Edwards ($5400 DK, $8500 FD) are thriving lately, providing a refreshing contrast to the lesser personnel the Ravens relied on while the duo was injured. It's not clear whether Justice Hill or Kenyan Drake might function as the RB3, nor is it clear whether that RB3 would actually see any usage, but Drake was the scratch between the two last week as Hill played seven snaps. It's difficult to see how the Ravens win this game unless at least one of Dobbins or Edwards has a strong game.

Najee Harris ($10600 DK, $14000 FD) might not be explosive but he is steady, and his skill set is varied enough that he can be the centerpiece of the offense almost no matter what the game flow. The Ravens run defense is tough and they'll be gunning for Harris – they held him to 50 yards from scrimmage in Week 14 – but Harris should breeze past 15 carries in this one. Jaylen Warren ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) will pick up whatever work Harris doesn't – Warren even had 11 carries in Week 15.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Diontae Johnson ($8600 DK, $13000 FD) and George Pickens ($8400 DK, $12500 FD) are both capable at receiver, but Johnson generally runs the shorter routes and Pickens is the first candidate to make a play downfield. That in theory grants more consistency to Johnson but more upside to Pickens. It's plenty possible that the correct answer is 'Both,' but Pat Freiermuth ($7200 DK, $11000 FD) is closing in on triple-digit targets himself. Steven Sims ($1000 DK, $5500 FD) is reliably playing around 30 snaps per game but his receiving yardage high this year is 30 yards, and he's had one or fewer catches in five of the last seven games. Sims is the primary returner for Pittsburgh, though, which arguably makes him a more worthwhile consideration for rosters that feature the Pittsburgh DST. Gunner Olszewski ($200 DK, $5500 FD) is another candidate to play around 20 snaps. Backup tight end Zach Gentry ($600 DK, $5000 FD) actually plays almost as many snaps as Freiermuth, but he draws targets much less often and does much less with them. Connor Heyward ($800 DK, $6500 FD) has done well on a per-snap basis so far but hasn't played more than 17 plays in a game since Week 6.

Sammy Watkins ($2200 DK, $7000 FD) only played 16 snaps last week but clearly deserves more, especially with Demarcus Robinson ($6800 DK, $8000 FD) underqualified in the WR1 role. Still, Robinson might be the favorite to lead the Baltimore receivers in snaps again despite Watkins and DeSean Jackson ($3400 DK, $6000 FD) providing better per-snap returns. Mark Andrews ($8800 DK, $11500 FD) is of course the real WR1 in the Baltimore offense, and that will remain the case no matter how much of a slump he might be going through. Isaiah Likely ($1600 DK, $6000 FD) hasn't done much in games where Andrews was active, as Josh Oliver ($400 DK, $6000 FD) tends to claim most of the TE2 snaps.

KICKERS

Justin Tucker ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) is always worth serious consideration on single-game slates, so with a game as particularly low-scoring as this one he might be worth more consideration yet. Tucker posted 11.0 fantasy points the last time these teams played, one of seven times he's posted double-digit fantasy points in a game this year. Chris Boswell ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) is nearly as good as Tucker from beyond 50 yards but hasn't seen nearly as many opportunities from within 50 yards – Boswell has reached double-digit fantasy points in only three of 10 games this year – so it would likely take an unusual level of opportunity within 50 yards for Boswell to provide a similar output as Tucker.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Steelers ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) might not be the favored team, but between the Mike Tomlin Factor and the Greg Roman Factor the Pittsburgh defense could have a productive day all the same. Tyler Huntley has badly struggled as starter, and even Mark Andrews has been unable to produce in this offense lately. If Andrews can't go and the running game doesn't go, the Ravens offense is done. With that said, the Ravens ($5000 DK, $10000 FD) defense might be situated slightly better, if only for playing at home. Kenny Pickett is turnover-prone and the Steelers generally struggle to run, so other than short fields it's not obvious how the Steelers will put up points.