Streaming Defenses: Week 1 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses

The NFL likes to schedule premium matchups Week 1, and this season is no exception. For D/ST purposes, it means that a lot of the defenses with the best season-long projections are on the road against powerhouse offenses (BAL, NYJ) and/or facing QBs that have excellent track records of limiting sacks and turnovers (KC, SF, CLE).  The best matchups mostly belong to defenses that weren't drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues, which means it's a favorable slate for those of us that plan to stream the position all season. Each of the five defenses discussed below is a strong Week 1 start, and the projections are close enough that I'd advise going with your gut over strictly following my rankings or the betting odds.

The Week 2 schedule looks much different, favoring defenses that were drafted in nearly every league, with the Ravens (vs. LV), Cowboys (vs. NO), 49ers (at MIN) and Jets (at TEN) all getting favorable matchups. There are some leagues where it's not a bad idea to roster two D/STs for Week 1 to avoid starting the Ravens at Kansas City or the Jets at San Francisco. In most leagues, however, it's probably a better idea to use that bench spot on a RB or WR whose value could rise considerably with a big Week 1 performance. 

Giving up a couple points of projection in the D/ST spot for one week is generally better than yielding an opportunity to strike gold with a bench sleeper at one of the more important positions. What's done is done, but I will note that one of the benefits of streaming defenses based on matchups (rather than drafting a projected top unit) is that we avoid this problem entirely. There's no need to think about rostering multiple defenses, except maybe when the playoffs are approaching and we know we're locked in for a spot.

Streaming is especially effective in leagues with only 10 teams, and also in leagues with 12 teams where most of our opponents only roster one defense and aren't looking to pick up a new one each week. The approach tends to be less effective in deeper formats where half or more of the defenses are rostered at any given time and numerous opponents are competing for the favorable matchups on waivers each week. In a league with 14 teams or 10 bench spots, streaming might not be such a good option. This article, naturally, will be more tailored to the leagues where streaming does make sense, with recommendations limited to defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent of teams on ESPN.

Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 1

1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. NE)

• 53% Yahoo, 62% ESPN
• Team implied total: 24.5     Opponent implied total: 16.0
• Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 28th (at KC),  Week 3: 3rd (vs. WAS)

A quick glance at Week 1 lines and Week 2 look-ahead odds leaves no doubt that betting markets are treating New England's offense as the worst in the league. Jacoby Brissett might not be the worst starting QB, but he's definitely in the bottom 10 and probably the bottom five, with the only bad news for streaming purposes being his 1.4 percent career interception rate. He's also improved his sack rates over time after taking far too many early in his career, but lost fumbles have remained a problem -- four over 11 starts in 2022, and 16 for his career (across 48 starts and 1,600 pass attempts).

Brissett now finds himself behind an offensive line that's oversized but under-talented, landing 31st in RotoWire's updated O-Line rankings, 28th in PFF's pre-season OL ranks and 31st in Brandon Thorn's ranks, after finishing 2023 dead last in pass-block win rate (43%) and 29th in PFF pass-block grade. The big offseason additions were third-round pick Caedan Wallace, fourth-round pick Layden Robinson and 27-year-old Chukwuma Okorafor, the latter of whom is moving to left tackle after mostly struggling as a right tackle for the Steelers. LG Cole Strange (knee) is on the PUP list, and it's unclear if RG Sidy Sow (ankle) or swing tackle Vederian Lowe (oblique) will be ready for Week 1 after missing time this preseason. 

The Bengals are no defensive juggernaut, but mere competence should do the trick this week against an offense that's notably weak at QB, O-line and WR. Even New England's strengths on offense are only relative; RB Rhamondre Stevenson and TE Hunter Henry are merely mid-level starters by league-wide standards.

2. Seattle Seahawks (vs. DEN)

• 24% Yahoo, 40% ESPN
• Team implied total: 24.0     Opponent implied total: 18.0
• Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 5th (at NE),  Week 3: 24th (vs. MIA)

Bo Nix's age (24) and unusual quantity of college experience (61 starts) may make him more "pro-ready" than a typical rookie QB, but he's still a first-time starter in the NFL, and one with a poor supporting cast. While LT Garett Bolles, RT Mike McGlinchey and RG Quinn Meinerz give the Broncos a trio of high-quality starters on the offensive line, they appear no better than average at every other position and have one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the league.

It's a favorable launch point for new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, who did an excellent job disguising coverages in Baltimore while engineering a defense that was arguably the league's best from mid-2022 through the end of 2023. He won't have as much talent in Seattle, and there may be some growing pains -- as was the case during his first couple months in Baltimore -- but I'll still eagerly bet on Macdonald against a rookie QB making his first NFL start...on the road... with Courtland Sutton as his WR1 and no clear threat at TE or WR2. There's even potential for multiple starts here if things play out the way I expect this weekend, as the Seahawks will travel to New England in Week 2 to face an offense that looks even worse on paper than Denver's.

3. New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)

• 48% Yahoo, 79% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.75     Opponent implied total: 18.75
• Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 27th (at DAL),  Week 3: 22nd (vs. PHI)

This is lower confidence than the two previously listed streamers, as the Panthers' O-line is solid on paper and they probably have just enough pass-catching talent to get by if Bryce Young makes a Year 2 leap. That last part is the big question, of course, and Young is just one or two bad games away from everyone viewing the Panthers as an A++ matchup for D/STs the way they were for all of last season. 

The Saints, meanwhile, are mostly relying on the same cast of defensive players that yielded solid-but-unspectacular results last year, hoping that a healthier season from DE Cameron Jordan and a (potential) breakout from new pass rusher Chase Young can lift the unit back to top-10 status after finishing 15th in defensive DVOA last season (the Saints ranked higher in most defensive stat categories, thanks in large part to a pathetic schedule).

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. WAS)

• 8% Yahoo, 4% ESPN
• Team implied total: 23.5     Opponent implied total: 20.5
• Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 30th (at DET),  Week 3: 4th (vs. DEN)

This is our first major deviation from the betting odds and reflects my expectation that the Bucs cover a three-point line and hold the Commanders below their implied total of 20.5 points. The Bucs have major question marks at CB and OLB, i.e., premium positions, but they still have standout performers in the middle of the field (DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David, S Antoine Winfield) and Todd Bowles as a highly competent playcaller/strategist.

The Commanders are starting a rookie QB whose biggest question mark is his pocket presence / ability to handle pressure, and they're putting him out there behind an offensive line that lacks high-quality starters besides RG Samuel Cosmi. Washington also lacks a clear WR2 and has a washed-up Zach Ertz starting off as the top pass-catching tight end, so it's not like the skill-position players will make up for an offensive line that RotoWire ranks 31st, PFF ranks 27th and Thorn places dead last*. I'll certainly be impressed if Daniels puts up 21-plus points on the road on his first NFL start while playing with this 

*Looking at various O-line rankings, including the ones here on RotoWire, I've noticed there's massive agreement at the top and bottom but not in the middle. Every site has the Lions, Browns, Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs and Colts in the Top 10, and everyone has the Commanders, Giants, Patriots, Titans, Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks in the Bottom 10. The rest varies wildly from site to site, with some sources putting more weight on 2023 unit performance or scheme/coaching and others caring more about experience and/or athleticism of the individual players. I mostly agree with the average/consensus opinions, though I'm more optimistic when it comes to the Panthers, Rams and Jets.

5. Atlanta Falcons (vs. PIT)

• 9% Yahoo, 15% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.5     Opponent implied total: 19.5
• Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 25th (at PHI),  Week 3: 29th (vs. KC)

Friday UPDATE Note: With Russell Wilson (calf) questionable trending toward doubtful, we can move the Falcons up a bit. I think it's basically a toss-up between ATL, TB and NO, with all three being very strong plays. Justin Fields isn't necessarily any worse than Wilson in terms of scoring points, but his track record of taking sacks and committing turnovers is much worse. His playing style can be D/ST friendly even on his good days.

Russell Wilson has always been good at avoiding interceptions but bad at avoiding sacks, and with the latter becoming more of a problem post-Seattle at the same time when his passing stats fell off hard. In other words, his weaknesses are weaker than ever, and his strengths have mostly dissipated into competencies. Wilson still throws a nice deep ball, but at age 35 there's no guarantee his metamorphosis into a screen/check-down merchant will reverse now that he's with Arthur Smith rather than Sean Payton. 

It doesn't help that the Steelers have unexpected doubts about the O-line entering Week 1. The group looked solid on paper all spring/summer, but Broderick Jones was laughably bad at right tackle this preseason, and now LG Isaac Seumalo (pectoral) is expected to miss at least the first week or two of the regular season. It's unclear if the Steelers will stick with Dan Moore at left tackle or move Jones back to the blindside and put first-round pick Troy Fautanu at RT. Either way, it's not great to have numerous questions on the O-line this close to Week 1, in addition to the lack of WR depth and likelihood of mediocre-to-subpar QB play. 

Smith's revenge game isn't likely to make Falcons fans miss him, especially after they beefed up their defense in August with the additions of OLB Matthew Judon and S Justin Simmons. Atlanta now has a solid-looking unit on paper, with the main question marks being depth at OLB and CB beyond Judon and A.J. Terrell, respectively.

Week 1 Rankings

1. Bengals (vs. NE)
2. Seahawks (vs. DEN)
3. Saints (vs. CAR)
4. Buccaneers (vs. WAS)
5. Falcons (vs. PIT) 
6. Bears (vs. TEN)
7. Chargers (vs. LV)
8. 49ers (vs. NYJ)
9. Giants (vs. MIN)
10. Dolphins (vs. JAX)
11. Vikings (at NYG)
12. Bills (vs. ARZ)
13. Cowboys (at CLE)
14. Browns (vs. DAL)
15. Chiefs (vs. BAL)
16. Texans (at IND)
17. Steelers (at ATL)
18. Raiders (at LAC)
19. Panthers (at NO)
20. Lions (vs. LAR)

Looking Ahead to Week 2

1. Ravens (vs. LV)
2. Cowboys (vs. NO)
3. 49ers (at MIN)
4. Jets (at TEN)
5. Seahawks (at NE)
6. Commanders (vs. NYG)
7. Chargers (at CAR)
8. Steelers (at DEN)
9. Giants (at WAS) 
10. Broncos (vs. PIT)
11. Packers (vs. IND)
12. Lions (vs. TB)
13. Texans (vs. CHI)
14. Eagles (vs. ATL)
15. Browns (at JAX)
16. Chiefs (vs. CIN)
17. Jaguars (vs. CLE)
18. Panthers (vs. LAC)
19. Rams (at ARZ)
20. Dolphins (vs. BUF)

Rest-of-Season Rankings

I've never been a fan of season-long D/ST rankings, as it's the only position where matchups matter less than talent/skill on a weekly basis. And even matchups are hard to determine ahead of time, as the best-of-the-best situations tend to be a product of opponent-QB injuries. There's also the reality that team defensive performance is less sticky/consistent from year to year than offensive performance, which is largely a product of the former consisting of somewhat equally valued parts while the latter has one position (QB) with an outsized weight on team-level outcomes.

All that being said, there are six defenses that I consider talented enough to roster (and perhaps start) even if the matchup isn't favorable. After Cleveland at No. 6, it's probably not worth keeping any of these D/STs on a roster unless they have a great matchup in the current week or your league has a huge number of bench spots. Of course, we'll inevitably see a couple of those defenses in the Top 6 disappoint, while a few others from lower in the ranks will emerge from the unwashed masses.

The ones ranked relatively higher, e.g. Miami and Pittsburgh, are the defenses I consider more likely to displace disappointing teams from the start-of-season Alpha group. Just know that their odds to do so are only marginally better than those of the defenses ranked in the teens. A lot of it will probably come down to injuries, matchups and coaching, rather than the talent level we're seeing on paper at the beginning of the season.

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore Ravens 
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Detroit Lions
10. Houston Texans
11. Buffalo Bills
12. Seattle Seahawks
13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. Chicago Bears
15. Green Bay Packers
16. Las Vegas Raiders
17. New Orleans Saints
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
19. Cincinnati Bengals
20. Atlanta Falcons