We're officially into the second half of the regular season, so stats are fairly well stabilized, making individual and team stats more reliable. For those looking to research picks of their own, these resources are particularly useful:
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
For those new to Underdog and looking to get in on the action, use the promo code ROTONFL at the following link for a bonus on your first deposit.
Higher
Travis Kelce 
vs. IND – higher than 52.5 receiving yards
He may not look good doing it, but Kelce remains a key part of the Kansas City offense. He has at least four receptions in eight of 10 games this season, and he's topped this projection on seven occasions. As for this week specifically, the Colts have allowed 8.34 yards per target while also allowing among the most targets per game to opposing tight ends. Everything points to Kelce having another solid day, so much so that this projection feels like a trap.
Andrei Iosivas 
vs. NE – higher than 36.5 receiving yards
Iosivas should see increased usage in the absence of Ja'Marr Chase (suspension). This selection is mostly that simple, but there are a few other factors that further help his cause. The matchup is not daunting, as New England is no better than league average against opposing wide receivers. The potential for Joe Burrow's (toe) return could be another very helpful factor, though Joe Flacco also logged a full practice Friday and enters the weekend without an injury designation.
Jahmyr Gibbs 
vs. NYG – higher than 105.5 rushing + receiving yards
Gibbs hasn't had the same season as a rusher that he did in 2024, but he's supplemented that with excellent production as a pass catcher. That's been particularly true in recent weeks, as he's recorded 82 and 107 receiving yards within his last four contests. That makes it somewhat ambiguous how Gibbs' production will come, but he has nevertheless been reliable. He's topped this projection in three of the last four games and the Giants have allowed a league-worst 5.74 yards per carry this season.
Kenneth Gainwell 
at CHI – higher than 24.5 rushing yards
Jaylen Warren (ankle) was cleared to suit up Sunday after suffering an injury scare in Week 11, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see his workload scaled back a bit. Gainwell has proven to be a viable change-of-pace back as needed this season, and he should see some additional work. Like Iosivas, there should be some peripheral factors that help Gainwell's outlook. The Steelers are always fairly run-heavy, and that should be even more the case as the team looks to either protect Aaron Rodgers (wrist) or limit the exposure of Mason Rudolph. Finally, the Bears will be without their top three linebackers, most notably Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards.
Hunter Henry 
at CIN – higher than 40.5 receiving yards
The Bengals are the premier matchup in the league for opposing tight ends. They allow the seventh-most yards per target to the position, but more importantly, have faced the most targets to opposing tight ends this season. Like most of the New England pass catchers, Henry has been inconsistent this season, but this projection is within reason, and this should be a week when his production can spike.
Lower
Ashton Jeanty 
vs. CLE – lower than 57.5 rush yards
Jeanty hasn't gotten much help in his rookie season, which has led to a lot of inefficiency in both traditional and advanced stats. He's averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in only two games (Weeks 4 and 5) and has topped this projection in only half of his 10 games. The Browns' defense also continues to play very well despite a lot of losing efforts. The unit has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per carry (3.91) in the league and also limits volume fairly well given the context of Cleveland's offense.
Bam Knight 
vs. JAX – lower than 40.5 rush yards
Trey Benson (knee) and Emari Demercado (ankle) are both sidelined, so Knight has a good opportunity to return double-digit carries this week. He'll still be in a split with Michael Carter, however, and the Cardinals have been among the most pass-heavy teams in the league based on pass rate over expectation. Arizona leads the league in pass rate over expected in the last four weeks. We can expect the team's pass-heavy ways to continue in Week 12, as the Jaguars are also turning into a pass-funnel defense. This choice is more about volume than efficiency, though Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt (3.78).
J.J. McCarthy 
at GB – lower than 186.5 passing yards
It's no secret that McCarthy has struggled as a passer. Specifically, he's had a bad mix of being aggressive with the ball – he has averaged 10.5 intended air yards per attempt, the highest average in the league among passers with 90 attempts – but is tied with the lowest expected completion percentage in the league (60.5). Meanwhile, the Packers have allowed only 5.99 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and should be thrilled at the thought of walking into a matchup against.
