Why the Saints Are a Strong Under Play in 2025 Win Totals
The New Orleans Saints enter the season with one of the lowest NFL win totals in 2025, set at just 5.5 wins on DraftKings Sportsbook. While that number may seem modest, there's a strong case to be made that even reaching six wins will prove to be a tall order. Betting the under at -120 odds offers one of the more appealing value plays on the board.
Quarterback Instability Signals Trouble
The Saints will begin life without Derek Carr, who retired this offseason. To fill the void, New Orleans drafted quarterback Tyler Shough in the second round. While the rookie will be 26 early in the season, his college career was marred by injuries, and he lacks the experience typically associated with NFL-ready prospects. Shough profiles more as a long-term project than an immediate solution.
Behind him, the depth chart doesn't offer much stability. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener haven't shown signs of being capable starting quarterbacks. With no clear answer under center, this team enters the year with one of the most unsettled QB rooms in the league.
Skill Position Talent Is Razor-Thin
Depth concerns extend across the offense. Alvin Kamara, now 30 years old, has missed games in each of the last four seasons and has seen his efficiency decline the past two years. Backup options at running back are limited and largely unproven.
At receiver, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both finished last season on injured reserve. Olave's concussion history is a growing concern, and Shaheed is working back from a major knee injury. If either misses time again, this offense will have limited playmaking options.
Defensive Decline and Coaching Losses
New Orleans has been slowly bleeding defensive talent for several years. Compounding that decline is the departure of defensive mastermind Dennis Allen. Without Allen's scheme and leadership, the defense is expected to take another step back.
Many of the team's defensive holdovers are among the oldest in the NFL, and there's a clear lack of young difference-makers across the board. Even in matchups where the defense could keep the team close, there are few signs this unit can consistently tilt games in their favor.
Schedule Leaves Little Room for Upside
The Saints have only a handful of matchups that appear winnable on paper. They face division rival Carolina twice, but sweeping a divisional opponent is never easy. Other potential soft spots include road games at Tennessee and home games against the Patriots and Giants.
Outside of those five games, New Orleans is likely to be a significant underdog each week. Barring major surprises, this is a team that will be fighting just to win three or four games, let alone the six needed to clear the betting total.
Betting Recommendation
Between uncertainty at quarterback, aging and injury-prone starters, and a declining defense, the Saints face an uphill climb in 2025. Betting under 5.5 wins at -120 looks like one of the best preseason wagers on the board.
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