Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers: NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions
For the 2nd year in a row, the NFL will play a Friday night season-opening contest at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This year's edition will feature an AFC West clash between the Chargers and defending AFC champion Chiefs.
Los Angeles begins Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era with elevated expectations after a surprise playoff appearance a year ago. Meanwhile, Kansas City is invigorated by the challenge of trying to return to yet another Super Bowl after falling short against the Eagles in February.
With a strong possibility of a highly competitive game, let's break down odds and best bets.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -168 (FanDuel)/ Chargers +145 (BetMGM)
Point spread: Chiefs -3 (DraftKings)/ Chargers +3.5 (BetRivers)
Totals: Over 46.5 points (ESPN Bet)/ Under 46.5 points (FanDuel)
Since both teams have their primary skill-position assets available (with the exception of Rashee Rice's suspension) the spread for this game has remained relatively stable. The number has consistently bounced between 3 and 3.5 points in favor of the Chiefs over the last couple of weeks, and this is likely to remain the case leading up to kickoff.
In contrast, the total has been on the move, displaying an upward trajectory over the last couple of weeks. The number was at 44.5 approximately two weeks ago, but it has climbed all the way to 46.5 since, even with Rice's suspension announcement coming within that span.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks
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The Chiefs come into the 2025 season with a commitment to a more aggressive style of offense that reincorporates the vertical aspect of the air attack that Patrick Mahomes proved so capable of orchestrating in the early portion of his career. The two-time MVP is coming off a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt in 2024, but with a now seasoned and electric Xavier Worthy and a healthy Hollywood Brown set to operate as his top two receivers to open the season, Mahomes is set up well to start implementing KC's more downfield-centric approach right out of the gate.
At this point last season, Worthy was getting ready to play in his first NFL game and Brown was already on injured reserve. Not only are both players enjoying improved conditions to open this season, but Isiah Pacheco is now fully recovered from last year's leg injury and he looked back to his explosive self throughout the offseason, training camp and preseason. He also has Kareem Hunt – now having had nearly a full season to reintegrate into the Chiefs' system – as his backup right from the start of the season, giving the offense more cumulative depth than in last year's Week 1 win against the Ravens.
The Chargers also enter the new season riding the optimism generated by new additions such as first-round pick Omarion Hampton and free agent signing Najee Harris, the latter who's now free of an injury designation after missing all of preseason with an eye injury. However, the fact remains that Justin Herbert and many of Los Angeles' other skill-position players, even the returning Keenan Allen, have been part of what is now a seven-game losing streak to Kansas City.
That includes narrow 17-10 and 19-17 defeats in 2024, a pair of games where Herbert only threw for 213 and 179 yards. The Chiefs also ranked in the top half of the league last season with 31.5 pass attempts against per game, and they yielded a modest 213.3 passing yards per contest outside Arrowhead Stadium. Considering all the factors cited, I'm in the camp of a Chiefs win, the Under, and an SGP as a bonus bet with an appealing price.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Best Bets
- Chiefs moneyline (-168 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 46.5 points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Justin Herbert Under 231.5 passing yards and Under Alt. Total 52.5 points (+120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
As alluded to earlier, the Chiefs have a favorable recent track record against Herbert and the Chargers. While it's naturally a new season, there's plenty of personnel carryover on both sides, and a proud KC team that's got fresh motivation after last February's disappointment has enough weaponry and road saviness even without Rice to squeak out a close win in another relatively low-scoring affair.
