This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 14 NFL Picks and Player Props
It was a rough week last week as only Marvin Harrison came through for us hitting the over on his receiving yardage while scoring a touchdown, if you took that parlay. I should be due for a rebound this week! Let's see what looks good.
Anytime Touchdowns
Isaac Guerendo, SF -140 FanDuel, DraftKings
The rookie back gets a great opportunity at home this week, facing a Bears team ranked 23rd against the position. The 49ers should welcome a home game after losing their last two on the road. San Francisco has always featured a run-heavy attack, and Guerendo has little mileage on him this season after sitting almost the entire season behind Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey. Guerendo is a big back (6-0. 221lbs) who had a rushing touchdown last week in Buffalo and one earlier this season against the Cowboys. He also averages a lofty 5.9 yards per carry this season, albeit in limited work.
Braelon Allen, NYJ +120 FanDuel
Like Guerendo, Allen get shis chance as the lead back this week with Breece Hall listed as doubtful. Allen is also a big back (6-1, 235lbs) capable of catching passes out of the backfield despite his large frame. The Dolphins rank 2nd against opposing wide receivers but are below average against running back, ranking 20th in the league. Hall leaves behind 17.5 touches per game so Allen should get a heavy workload.
Grant Calcaterra, PHI +500 FanDuel
Here's my long shot of the week. Dallas Goedert will miss the tilt with the Panthers, the worst team in the NFL against opposing tight ends. Calcaterra has primary been used as a blocker throughout his career but averaged over three catches per game earlier this season while Goedert was out. Another fun fact here is that Calcaterra is +270 and +280 on other sites suggesting this is an excellent value.
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Player Props
Kyle Pitts, ATL Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM
Pitts has a whopping nine receiving yards over his last two games, so this line smells a bit fishy. He had only five targets in those two games but has had at least five targets in six games this season. That suggests a progression to the mean against Minnesota. The Vikings are merely league-average against opposing tight ends (16th) and Pitts' over/under for receptions is 3.5 in some places. I like parlaying an anytime touchdown (+330) with his alternate receiving total of 50+ yards (+200) which turns into +650 on DraftKings.
Jameis Winston, CLE Under 247.5 Passing Yards -120 DraftKings
I like targeting someone who had a ridiculous previous week, like with 497 passing yards, and going the opposing direction in the next week. Winston fits that idea perfectly this week and draws a tough matchup heading into Pittsburgh. The Steelers allow only 220 passing yards per game and held Jameis to 219 passing yards in Cleveland two weeks ago. I think if Winston had a "normal" game last week this line would be at least 20 yards lower.
DK Metcalf, SEA Over 63.5 Receiving Yards -110 DraftKings
This is an interesting line considering Metcalf faced the Cardinals only two weeks ago and finished with just 59 receiving yards. However, he had his second-lowest target total (5) in that game and has had at least seven tagets in his previous six other games. Arizona only ranks 20th against opposing wide receivers and it's worth noting that Geno Smith's over/under of 255.5 passing yards is the second highest total for this weekend.
