NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 14 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 14 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 14 Odds 

Week 14 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Week 14 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Saints at Bucs -8.5
• The lowest spread is Colts -1.5 at Jaguars and Commanders at Vikings -1.5
• There are 6 games with a line between 1.0-3.0 points 
• The highest total game is Cowboys/Lions 54.5; the lowest total game is Titans/Browns 33.5 
• There are 6 road favorites in Week 14
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between points 40.5-44.5
• The highest team totals are Bills, Lions, Rams, Cowboys, Seahawks
• The lowest team totals are Titans, Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Steelers

NFL Week 14 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, I will focus on more recent line movement in the write-ups, as the same teams Rams, Seahawks, Patriots, Colts are typically going to see the biggest moves from May until now. The key here is looking at line movement over the last 14 days and understanding why the line has moved. 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

I do my own "guessing the lines" exercise before each week, and I had this one at Packers -3.5. Well, when the number originally opened, it was -3.5, and I felt that the Bears surge would have kept this one in check. But the number reopened a full 3 points higher in favor of the Packers at -6.5 and it even touched -7 briefly. 

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These two teams end up playing each other twice in a three-week span, so there is no season history to reference the line move. There are also no significant injuries that would influence this move. 

The total has come down from the opening line of 46.5 and is now sitting at 44.5. Game time temperature is being forecast at 13 degrees with a slight chance of snow.  Another thing to consider in a game like this is how important the Packers being a key "teaser" leg is and why this number is sitting at 6.5. Green Bay will be teased down to just about a PICK as a lot of bettors will have the angle of a "must win" game, and the Packers will not lose to the Bears in Lambeau.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

This is the game that had me wanting to shift gears a bit and focus on more current line movement, instead of referencing the original lines in May. We have a Dallas team that is coming off defeating both the Chiefs and the Eagles at home. The public perception of the Cowboys has shifted significantly to the point where all of their remaining games have seen movement in their favor by multiple points. 

The Lions reopened at -6.0 on 11/25, and the number sank immediately to -5.5, then on 11/27 it went to -4.5, then -3.5, before settling at -3.0. For a line to move a full field goal within a week and there were no huge injuries until the news of Amon-Ra St. Brown dealing with an ankle issue. A missed practice Tuesday casts doubt on his status. A wide receiver of his stature usually would impact the line by 1.0 points.

The total opened 48.5 and reopened a full 6 points higher at 54.5. It has stayed within the 53.5-54.5 most of the week. The interesting thing here is that the Cowboys defense has actually been the key to their recent success, so this might not be the shootout everyone thinks. 

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs  

This game is a lot like the Cowboys/Lions in that we have a home favorite that opened -6.5 originally, and reopened at -6.0, but has already seen significant line movement in favor of the Texans as the Chiefs are now -3.0.  The number dipped to -5.0 on 11/30 and then took a huge 2.0 dip to -3.0 on 12/2. 

For the Chiefs to be sitting at just -3.0 tells you a lot about the public perception of a team that normally sees inflated lines, but also the Texans and their defense. 

The total opened 45.5 and reopened 43.5 before hitting a low of 41.5 and bouncing back up to 42.0. Gametime temperature is forecast at 30 degrees. 

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Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers 

This game has seen no line movement, but the potential of Justin Herbert being OUT could impact this line as much as 4-to-5 points, so you want to keep an eye on this. He is having surgery on a broken bone on his non-throwing hand. He did return to the game last Sunday and played with a thick white glove, but one bad hit, and the Chargers season could crumble. 

The Eagles are currently sitting at 2.5-point road favorites, and the number would hit -6 or -7 if he is ruled out and Trey Lance is named the starter.  

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns 

You know things have to be serious when the Cleveland Browns have a 2.5-point movement in their favor. That is what we have with the Browns, who opened -1.5 and now sit at -4.0, with a peak of -4.5. The Titans are looking like one of the worst teams in the history of the NFL with one fluky win against the Cardinals. Otherwise, they would be winless. 

The Browns' defense at home is really the key here, as this total is sitting at rock bottom 34.0 after originally opening 41.0 and reopening at 35.5. The weather is forecasting 32 degrees with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.

Cleveland was a -2.5 home favorite against the Dolphins on 10/19 and blew them out 31-6. 

NFL Week 14 Injury Report

Stay on top of the latest NFL injury news and other top NFL news here at Rotowire.