This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 14 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions -2.5 O/U 48.0 (Lions -3.5 O/U 51.0)
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins -2.0 O/U 47.5 (Dolphins -6.5 O/U 46.0)
- Atlanta Falcons -1.0 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 45.0 (Vikings -5.0 O/U 45.5)
- New Orleans Saints -0.5 at New York Giants O/U 41.0 (Saints -5.0 O/U 40.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles -7.0 O/U 45.0 (Eagles -12.0 O/U 46.0)
- Cleveland Browns -0.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 43.5 (Steelers -6.0 O/U 43.0)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.0 O/U 44.0 (Bucs -7.0 O/U 45.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -2.0 at Tennessee Titans O/U 45.0 (Titans -3.5 O/U 39.5)
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals -1.0 O/U 45.5 (Cardinals -3.0 O/U 45.0)
- Buffalo Bills -1.0 at Los Angeles Rams O/U 48.0 (Bills -4.0 O/U 49.0)
- Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers -5.5 O/U 47.5 (49ers -3.5 O/U 44.0)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 O/U 44.5 (Chiefs -3.5 O/U 43.0)
- Cincinnati Bengals -0.5 at Dallas Cowboys O/U 48.5 (Bengals -5.5 O/U 50.5)
BYES:Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Commanders, Ravens, Texans
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NFL Week 14 Key Injury News
QB - Trevor Lawrence (JAC), Baker Mayfield (TB)
RB - Christian McCaffrey (SF), Austin Ekeler (WAS), J.K. Dobbins (LAC), Roschon Johnson (CHI), Josh Jacobs (GB)
WR - Ladd McConkey (LAC), Rashod Bateman (BAL), DK Metcalf (SEA)
TE - Taysom Hill (NO)
NFL Week 14 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Panthers/Eagles -12.5; the lowest spread is Cardinals/Seahawks -2.5
- The highest total game is Packers/Lions 51.5 ; the lowest total is Jaguars/Titans 39.5
- There are 3 road favorites in Week 14
- The five highest team totals are Eagles, Bengals, Bills, Lions, Bucs
- The four lowest team totals are Panthers, Giants, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders
NFL Week 14 Line Movement
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
The Falcons opened as 1.0 point road favorites in the spring, but the Vikings emerged one of the biggest surprise teams in football and are now -5.0 point home favorites for a total line movement of 6 points. The line actually peaked at -6.0 before seeing some buyback.
The Vikings started off 5-0 against the spread, but have slumped to 2-4-1 since then as the lines have adjusted.
The total has remained relatively static, opening at 45.0, peaking at 46.5, and sitting now 45.5. The Falcons have gone under the total 4 games in a row and 5 out of their last 6. The Vikings have gone under the total in 4 out of their last 5 games.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns actually opened 0.5 point road favorites, but the Steelers have outperformed expectations with a 9-3 record, good for 1st place in the AFC North. The Browns come in off a wild Monday night game against the Broncos and have a 3-9 record.
The total opened 43.5 and went as low as 40.5, but has bounced back up to 43.0 after both the Steelers and Browns put up a lot of points in Week 13.
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have dominated recently in AFC North games, especially at home where they are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10. The Browns are just 1-7 in their last 8 road games against the AFC North.
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs opened as 1.0 point home favorites, and the line moved to -3.0 Week 1, but ultimately peaked at -8.0 before seeing some buyback on the Raiders bringing it to Bucs -7.0 for a 6 point line move. The total has not moved much from the 44.0 point opener and it now sits at 45.5.
This game is a little tricky because Baker Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury, so we will have to wait and see on his status and how it will affect the line. If Mayfield does not play, I expect a 3 to 4 point line move in favor of the Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in football despite almost beating the Chiefs in Kansas City on Black Friday.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars opened as 2.0 point road favorites, but the Titans moved to -2.5 point home favorites last week. They peaked at -4.5, but have now settled in at -3.5. The total has moved from 45.0 to 39.5.
The biggest reason for the line move in this game is the status of Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence took a vicious hit Sunday in the game against the Texans and is not expected to play Sunday.
