Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Seattle vs. Philadelphia

Jalen Hurts is dealing with an illness and as of press time it's not clear whether he will play in Monday's road game against Seattle. It's also unclear whether Geno Smith (groin) will be able to play, though his status is more straightforwardly pessimistic than what Hurts is looking at. That the availability of both starting quarterbacks is in question makes this game exceedingly difficult to project, though in both cases the teams have backups who have extensive starting experience – the Eagles with Marcus Mariota, and the Seahawks with Drew Lock. The over/under is down to 45.0 from a 47.5 opening, and the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points as of press time.

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts ($11400 DK, $17000 FD) is of course a slate headliner in any normal showdown setting, but between his illness and the potential for problematic rain, things feel dismal compared to the norm. If Hurts is active then it's exceedingly difficult to fade him regardless of the weather or whether his illness is a limiting factor, especially given the situation at quarterback for the other team. Marcus Mariota becomes close to a must-play if Hurts is out. It's not so much that there's reason for optimism with Mariota, it's just that there are only so many viable options on the slate and if Hurts were out the remaining list is rather brief.

Whereas Geno Smith is normally a stabilizing presence for the Seahawks offense, Drew Lock ($9200 DK, $13000 FD) is at best a wildcard. Lock plays (too) fearlessly and is both stronger-armed and faster than Smith, but the accuracy and the reliability are deep in the negative category. It's unlikely that rain would make Lock any more reliable. With that said, if Lock can keep his composure in the rain and withstand the intimidating Eagles pass rush, there could at that point be significant opportunities for the Seattle passing game. The Eagles tend to deter the run, driving up pass attempt volume, and then their efficiency as a pass defense is thrown into doubt by the absence of Darius Slay.

RUNNING BACK

D'Andre Swift ($8000 DK, $11000 FD) really needs to step up here, regardless of Hurts' status. The likely rain will make throwing the ball more challenging than usual, and if so the slack will fall onto the Eagles backfield. The Seattle run defense will likely be prepared to some extent, but in general the Eagles offensive line should be able to grind down almost any defensive front with enough rushing attempts. Whether the Eagles commit to that is a different question, but it might be a possibility. It's also a possibility that Kenneth Gainwell ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) will take up some substantial amount of backfield work, though doing anything productive has been a major challenge for him in 2023. Rashaad Penny is a far superior runner to Gainwell and Boston Scott, but to think point the Eagles have considered themselves above the suggestion that they could perhaps use better rushing production.

Kenneth Walker ($7800 DK, $11500 FD) was the clear lead runner over Zach Charbonnet ($4000 DK, $9500 FD) last week, as well as the clear passing-down back. Charbonnet had at times taken a lot of pass-blocking snaps this year, but last week the Seahawks instead opted for running back routes rather than running back blitz pickup. In other words, this should be more of a straightforward Walker game rather than a Walker/Charbonnet game both. Of course, the ruthlessly brutal Philadelphia run defense makes the matchup challenging even with the workload volume that otherwise might be up for grabs.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

A.J. Brown ($11200 DK, $15500 FD) and DeVonta Smith ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) would probably lose efficiency with a switch from Hurts to Mariota, but their share of the offense would probably remain close to the same. Even in the rain and even if Mariota is the quarterback, the Eagles can only do so much on the ground before they're compelled to go to the air. The Eagles are not built to run, so if they need to do it exclusively they will burn themselves out quick. They don't have the stomach, the means or the intention to see it through. Dallas Goedert ($6200 DK, $9000 FD) might stand to gain something from the rain if it makes it more difficult to get the ball to Brown or Smith specifically. The Seahawks have not defended tight ends very well in 2023, either, so Goedert could have a wider lane to produce than usual. Quez Watkins appears to be Philadelphia's preferred WR3 over Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones, though it's not clear why. Jack Stoll will likely play 20 to 30 snaps but rarely sees pass-catching opportunities.

DK Metcalf ($9600 DK, $145000 FD), Tyler Lockett ($6600 DK, $10000 FD) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) are all in a tantalizing spot: a vulnerable pass defense, but in the rain and with a backup quarterback. These Seahawks wideouts can beat the Eagles secondary, and the Eagles run defense compels the Seahawks to throw more than they'd like. The effect of Lock and the rain is just about impossible to anticipate, however, It's a boom/bust scenario, but it's unclear if the boom or the bust is more likely. Noah Fant ($2600 DK, $7500 FD) has been quiet as a pass catcher in 2023 but is capable of doing more should the opportunity arise. Colby Parkinson ($200 DK, $7000 FD) and Will Dissly ($200 DK, $5500 FD) also pitch in at tight end, though they face the same limitations as Fant, only to a much greater degree.

KICKER

Applying the usual weather caveats, either of these kickers could have opportunities if the offenses stumble into short fields but then struggle to punch the ball into the end zone.

Jake Elliott ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) has established himself as one of the league's very best kickers this year, making 23 of 25 field goal attempts and demonstrating more range than he had in previous seasons (7 of 8 on field goals 50 or more yards).

Jason Myers ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) is a good kicker in his own right, but one more streaky from year to year than Elliott. For what it's worth, according to Yahoo, Myers has kicked in five rainy ("precipitation") games in his career and made all 10 field goal attempts in those games (long of 45).

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Either defense in this game would benefit from the other starting quarterback sitting out, so it's worth keeping that in mind before projecting either defense. It's also worth monitoring the weather – rain is a major threat and if it materializes it would be a destabilizing effect on both passing games.

The Eagles ($4600 DK, $9500 FD) are without top corner Darius Slay as well as a starting linebacker in Zach Cunningham, but if Drew Lock is at quarterback then there could be turnovers to be had. The bizarre late-season switch at defensive coordinator from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia is, again, bizarre, and almost certainly unprecedented. Whatever effect it might hold is completely unclear. The Eagles pass rush is probably difficult for anyone to screw up, so with that rush and the Lock factor the hope is that the turnovers and sacks will come whatever way this all ends up.

The Seahawks ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) might be underdogs but their defense is far from a pushover. They have a handful of disruptive players in the front seven, and the absence of starting guard Cam Jurgens could allow players like Dre'Mont Jones and Leonard Williams to make a little more noise. With that said, just like the case with almost any other defense, the Seahawks don't have the corner personnel to cover A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. They might need the pass rush to intervene, and Hurts sitting would be helpful for them also.