This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The 6-9 home team 49ers can't make the playoffs at this point, but Kyle Shanahan has consistently kept his team bought in during prior low points in his San Francisco tenure. Pride and home field will probably therefore be enough reason for the 49ers to stay locked in as they face an otherwise intimidating 13-2 Detroit Lions team. The over/under is 50.5 and the Lions are favored by 3.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Jared Goff ($9800 DK, $15500 FD) is a tough fade, even with so many tempting names throughout this slate. Goff tends to be very productive in games where the Lions have the upper hand, and the 49ers' front-seven injuries makes it easier to keep the Lions running game rolling here. Charvarius Ward is out at corner, too, which should help all of Detroit's receivers to varying extents. If the game turns into a shootout then it might prove ill-advised to fade Goff.
Brock Purdy ($9400 DK, $14500 FD) is a tough fade in his own right, though the task might be more perilous for him than Goff. The Detroit defense is down numerous high-impact starters, but so is the San Francisco offense, including on the offensive line. Whereas Goff should have a steady running game providing relief, Purdy might not. The 49ers are without enough linemen and Isaac Guerendo might not be completely healthy, so Purdy might need to do more lifting than usual here.
RUNNING BACK
Jahmyr Gibbs ($11600 DK, $15000 FD) isn't easily budgeted for with so
The 6-9 home team 49ers can't make the playoffs at this point, but Kyle Shanahan has consistently kept his team bought in during prior low points in his San Francisco tenure. Pride and home field will probably therefore be enough reason for the 49ers to stay locked in as they face an otherwise intimidating 13-2 Detroit Lions team. The over/under is 50.5 and the Lions are favored by 3.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Jared Goff ($9800 DK, $15500 FD) is a tough fade, even with so many tempting names throughout this slate. Goff tends to be very productive in games where the Lions have the upper hand, and the 49ers' front-seven injuries makes it easier to keep the Lions running game rolling here. Charvarius Ward is out at corner, too, which should help all of Detroit's receivers to varying extents. If the game turns into a shootout then it might prove ill-advised to fade Goff.
Brock Purdy ($9400 DK, $14500 FD) is a tough fade in his own right, though the task might be more perilous for him than Goff. The Detroit defense is down numerous high-impact starters, but so is the San Francisco offense, including on the offensive line. Whereas Goff should have a steady running game providing relief, Purdy might not. The 49ers are without enough linemen and Isaac Guerendo might not be completely healthy, so Purdy might need to do more lifting than usual here.
RUNNING BACK
Jahmyr Gibbs ($11600 DK, $15000 FD) isn't easily budgeted for with so many costly and capable options in this game, but those who pay up are getting what they pay for. As much as it might prove possible to cash without Gibbs in this game, he has the obviously highest best-case scenario from scrimmage due to the absence of David Montgomery. Craig Reynolds ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) is the next running back up, though last week he only played 10 snaps while Sione Vaki and Jermar Jefferson both played five.
Isaac Guerendo ($8400 DK, $10500 FD) is not an easy fade, but the matchup could prove challenging if only because of San Francisco's offensive line injuries. That, and Guerendo playing through his own injuries – both foot and hamstring. Guerendo lost three straight years of his college career due to tearing his hamstring twice and then breaking his foot in the third year, so it's a little discouraging to see those words pop up on the injury report with him. Patrick Taylor ($6400 DK, $7500 FD) is up next but to this point has shown more blocking ability than utility from scrimmage.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10600 DK, $14000 FD) is often or usually worth the otherwise high cost, but with so many expensive options in this game it might be tough to get the call right here. St. Brown is capable of providing a cashing-necessary box score either as part of a Detroit passing game stack, or just as easily in a game where Goff otherwise posts modest production. Generally, though, it seems like St. Brown's presence becomes more constant when the stakes of the game get higher, and the stakes are plenty high here for Detroit on a day where their defense is walking wounded. Sam LaPorta ($5800 DK, $9500 FD) is probably just affordable enough in a potential shootout script to pair with guys like St. Brown and Goff. Jameson Williams ($8000 DK, $11500 FD) is not quite as affordable these days, though his big-play appeal speaks for itself. Tim Patrick ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) is a guy worth considering in almost any build, but his affordability arguably makes him an especially sensible pairing for Goff investors. Brock Wright ($1600 DK, $7000 FD) is a punt-play option at tight end but hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points this year.
Deebo Samuel ($7600 DK, $10000 FD) finally got going last week and should be in a good spot to keep it moving here. The Detroit defense is battered at all three levels, and its corners are small. Jauan Jennings ($7800 DK, $11000 FD) has a good projection in his own right, and he's imposing to the Detroit corners for the same reason Deebo is: guys as light as Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson really don't want to square up receivers as heavy and violent as Samuel and Jennings. George Kittle ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) is always a compelling consideration on a single-game slate, though the price tag at this point is getting a little more difficult. Kittle ownership should be contained as a result, but the utility in paying up might be more for the exclusiveness than the projection. Ricky Pearsall ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) doesn't project nearly as well as the previously mentioned 49ers but he's still probably a good prospect and at the very least he can make a play if the Detroit defense doesn't take him minimally seriously.
KICKER
Jake Moody ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) was a much bigger deal at Michigan than Jake Bates ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) was at Arkansas, where he wasn't even allowed to kick field goals, but so far Bates has been the clearly better NFL kicker. That the Lions are the favored team here might give reason to declare Bates' game setup superior to Moody's also, but Moody could be a factor in his own right. Moody hasn't been consistently bad as much as he's had a couple bad games this year, and if he proves to be an 80-percent kicker or better he'll have to get on a bit of a streak eventually. Still, Bates looks like the better player and has the better range of the two.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Neither defense sets up conventionally well with the over/under over 50 and both offenses capable of big plays, but the Lions ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) as the favorites have the preferred projected game script. The Lions have incurred a great deal of injuries on defense, however, at all three levels, and their pass defense in particular might be somewhat at risk here. If Goff and company score points, though, there might be pass-rushing opportunities, and Purdy isn't exactly turnover-averse.
San Francisco ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) still has a solid defense but their injuries have taken a big toll on the front seven especially, and the absence of Charvarius Ward makes things tougher at corner. Goff can have a bad game from time to time, but it would be surprising if this were one of those times.
