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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Despite a recent downturn that's seen them fall to 6-6, the Atlanta Falcons still hold the edge for the top spot in the NFC South as their quarterback, the embattled Kirk Cousins, faces off against his old Vikings teammates.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Falcons +220 (bet365)/ Vikings -245 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Falcons +6 (bet365)/ Vikings -5.5 (-115 BetMGM)
Totals: Under 46.5 points (-115 FanDuel)/ Over 45.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has seen constant movement, but within a very tight range. The Vikings posted as either 5.5 or 6-point favorites since before Week 13 action. Although the Falcons fell by four points to the Chargers and the Vikings recorded a one-point victory against the Cardinals, the number held steady since neither the loss nor the victory was convincing.
The total has also remained fairly stable, but in a definite downward trajectory. The number was at 46.5 before Week 13 action, and with these two teams combining for just 36 points last Sunday, it's been bet down to as low as 45.5 at some sportsbooks.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Picks
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The Falcons' current three-game swoon has included dropping two games by a total of seven point. But those narrow defeats sandwiched a 32-point thumping at the hands of the Broncos at Mile High. That game got away from Atlanta in the first half and was a tough matchup all the way around against a close-to-elite defense on the road.
A somewhat similar scenario awaits this week, except that Minnesota's defense isn't quite the all-around unit of Denver While the Vikes have been very good against the run overall (NFL-low 81.3 RYPG allowed), they've actually had more trouble at home (101.8 RYPG allowed) defending the run. Additionally, Minnesota, which has faced an NFL-high 65.8 percent pass play rate, surrenders 242 passing yards per home game, including 277.7 per contest over the last three.
Considering Cousins' recent form, it's certainly easy to assume he's ill-equipped to take advantage of the Vikings' bigger weaknesses. Cousins has an 0:6 TD:INT over his last three games, an unfathomable ratio for a quarterback of his accomplishments . That also makes a strong case for some regression to the mean for the veteran against a defense that allows its fair share of passing yards. Plus, he has more knowledge of the scheme he's playing against than any other Vikings opponent this season.
Bijan Robinson is an elite back capable of transcending matchups and he also has a sizable role in a passing game that keeps the ball in his hands and helps preserve the upside of this offense. Drake London and Darnell Mooney are also now joined by an increasingly viable third receiver in Ray-Ray McCloud, who generated a 10-141 line on 12 targets over the last two games. Moreover, it may set up as the right spot for a Kyle Pitts reemergence after a moribund last two games – Minnesota has allowed a 69-641-2 line to tight ends on a 75.8 percent catch rate.
Ultimately, I can see a motivated Cousins keeping the Falcons close to a degree against a Minnesota team that's just 1-2 ATS as a home favorite. As a secondary bet, backing the Over on Aaron Jones' receiving yardage prop is a consideration since the Falcons are tied for the third-most receptions (70) allowed to RBs.
Falcons at Vikings Best Bets
Falcons +6 (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Aaron Jones Over 2.5 receptions (-121 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Falcons @ Vikings Prediction
Vikings 24, Falcons 20
The Vikings are simply a level above the Falcons at this point, and that holds true on both sides of the ball. Minnesota's pass defense does give up some production and Cousins is both better than he's looked recently and familiar with the scheme. Therefore, I see Atlanta doing enough to keep this competitive but still coming up short.
