Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL) — 34% started

Start Over — Sam Darnold (vs. IND), Jared Goff (at GB), Caleb Williams (at ARZ)

The Dallas defense is struggling badly and likely a week or two away from getting a big lift, with DE Micah Parsons (ankle), CB DaRon Bland (foot) and DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR - foot) all still absent from practice to start this week. The Cowboys have allowed multiple TDs to three straight QBs since the Parsons/Lawrence injuries, including Brock Purdy's best fantasy score (26.0 points) of the season and Jared Goff's second-best effort (25.1).

• Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. JAX), Patrick Mahomes (vs. TB), Sam Darnold (vs. IND), Geno Smith (vs. LAR), Derek Carr (at CAR)

Running Backs 👍

• Tony Pollard (vs. NE) — 62% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (at TEN), Brian Robinson (at NYG), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NO)

On the one hand, Tyjae Spears (hamstring) is expected back this week, likely ending Pollard's two-game streak playing at least 80 percent of snaps. On the other hand, this is one of the few chances Pollard will have to play as a betting favorite with a projection for RB-favorable game script (in fact, it might be the last time this season, depending on how things shake out with the Jaguars). All the better that the Patriots have allowed the second most PPR points (27.1 per game) and seventh most YPC (4.74) to running backs, including five occasions when two RBs on the same team recorded 76-plus yards and/or a touchdown. Just make sure everything checks out with Pollard's foot injury, as he missed practice Wednesday after handling a massive workload (80 percent snap share, 23 touches for 117 yards) in the blowout loss to Detroit in Week 8.

• Chase Brown (vs. LV) — 45% started

Start Over — Rachaad White (at KC), Javonte Williams (at BAL), Raheem Mostert (at BUF)

There's understandably some hesitation about Brown, who has been disappointing since usurping Zack Moss and even seemed to lose some playing time back to Moss in a 37-17 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. The good news is that Brown is still the guy getting more touches even when the snaps are even or in Moss' favor, and there's actually workload upside we haven't seen yet if Brown gets hot early in a game and gives coach Zac Taylor motivation to keep feeding him. There are better-than-usual odds that this will be the week it happens, playing at home as a TD favorite against a team that's allowing the 10th most PPR points (25.2) and eighth most YPC (4.67) to running backs.

• Other Good Matchups: Saquon Barkley (vs. JAX), Alvin Kamara (at CAR), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. DAL), Kareem Hunt (vs. TB), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NO), Zack Moss (vs. LV)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Amari Cooper (vs. MIA) — 66% started

Start Over — Jayden Reed (vs. DET), Tank Dell (at NYJ), Khalil Shakir (vs. MIA)

Cooper comes with more risk than in the past, having seen just two targets on 51 percent snap share (69 percent route share) in his second game with the Bills, but there's no shortage of upside in what could be a sneaky-good matchup. The Dolphins mostly have played solid defense this season, but they've taken a hit the past few weeks with injuries to slot corner Kader Kohou (neck), safety Jevon Holland (knee), backup CB Storm Duck (ankle) and interior pass rusher Zach Sieler (orbital) — none of whom practiced Wednesday. 

The Dolphins responded by putting Jalen Ramsey in the slot last week and installing rookie Cam Smith for most of the snaps at right cornerback, with Smith then allowing five completions for 63 yards and a TD on five targets, per PFF. Cooper has taken half of his snaps for the Bills as a left-side perimeter WR, suggesting he could see an awful lot of Smith this Sunday... not to mention the possibility of continued role growth as he becomes more comfortable in Joe Brady's offense.     

• Josh Downs (at MIN) — 37% started

Start Over — Darnell Mooney (vs. DAL), Michael Pittman (at MIN), Khalil Shakir (vs. MIA)

The Vikings are at/near the top of the league in a lot of defensive categories -- albeit less so after the past two weeks -- but no team has allowed more PPR points to wide receivers, with 15 reaching double digits in seven games. Downs and Pittman are good bets to join that list now that Anthony Richardson has been benched in favor of Joe Flacco, who has sent 27.9 percent of his targets this season to Downs (compared to 18.2 percent for Pittman). Consider it a bonus that the Vikings use zone coverages at the seventh highest rate (77.3 percent of dropbacks), as Downs has the No. 1 target rate against zone (34.4 percent) of any WR that's played more than three games this year.

• Other Good Matchups: Drake London & Darnell Mooney (vs. DAL), Chris Olave (at CAR), Courtland Sutton (at BAL), Xavier Worthy & DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TB), Jakobi Meyers (at CIN)

Tight Ends 👍

• Dalton Schultz (at NYJ) — 27% started

Start Over — Cole Kmet (at ARZ), T.J. Hockenson (vs. IND), Zach Ertz (at NYG_

I've recommended Schultz a few times and am still waiting on his first big game of the season, but it's worth taking another shot this week if you don't have one of the clearly superior / target-hogging tight ends like Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, etc. The Stefon Diggs injury significantly reduces competition for short-area targets, just in time for a matchup with a defense that has both starting safeties and middle linebacker C.J. Mosley (neck) ruled out with injuries. The Texans will almost certainly make Schultz a bigger part of the gameplan, rather than force-feeding targets to a depleted WR group that has to deal with one of the best CB units in the league.

• Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce (vs. TB), Brock Bowers (at CIN), Kyle Pitts (vs. DAL), Noah Fant (vs. LAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Baker Mayfield (at KC) — 44% started

Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL), Matthew Stafford (at SEA), Geno Smith (vs. LAR)

It's possible Mayfield can get by on volume rather than efficiency without Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring), but this isn't the week to take that risk, when he's playing on the road against a team that has a top defense and is good at controlling possession. The Chiefs have run 65.0 plays per game, while their opponents average 58.1. They're only middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs, but that's largely the product of a tough schedule and allowing a bunch of rushing stats to Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. This could be where everything falls apart for a Bucs offense that's living on the ropes.

• Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray (vs. CHI), Trevor Lawrence (at PHI), Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF), 

Running Backs 👎

• Javonte Williams (at BAL) — 51% started

Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (at TEN), Brian Robinson (at NYG), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NO)

Williams is always capable of a decent fantasy score behind volume and a short TD, but there's not much chance of strong efficiency this week, with one of the league's least explosive lead backs taking on a Baltimore defense that's allowed a league-low six designed runs of 10-plus yards. The Ravens just lost NT Michael Pierce (IR - calf), but they still have a solid group of players in the front seven, and their scheme has made things tough on RBs while opening up passing chances for QBs. The Ravens average 6.96 defenders in the box per rush attempt, eighth most in the league, even though they've been a nickel defense for 80 percent of those plays. They frequently use nickel packages against two-wide formations, but they then put one or two of those defensive backs in the box to choke off the run. The result has been a stifling run defense... and also a league-high 457 passing yards allowed when using nickel formations against offensive groupings with two or fewer WRs.

• Tank Bigsby (at PHI) — 25% started

Start Instead — Chase Brown (vs. LV), Nick Chubb (vs. LAC), Rachaad White (at KC)

Bigsby has played too well to be completely phased out of the offense, but Travis Etienne's expected return from a hamstring nonetheless hurts Bigsby's fantasy prospects, making it highly unlikely he approaches his touch totals from the past two weeks (26, 20). Per-touch efficiency will also be a challenge this Sunday, as the Jaguars will face a hot Philadelphia defense while starting at least one new face on the offensive line. They traded LT Cam Robinson to Minnesota on Tuesday, two days after both starting guards suffered injuries in the loss to Minnesota. RG Brandon Scherff (knee) returned to the game, but LG Ezra Cleveland didn't, and both then missed practice Wednesday.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (at MIN), Javonte Williams (at BAL), Bucky Irving (at KC), Raheem Mostert (at BUF)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Zay Flowers (vs. DEN) — 73% started

Start Instead — Brian Thomas (at PHI), DJ Moore (at ARZ), Amari Cooper (vs. MIA)

Flowers topped 100 yards three of the past four weeks and is among the most obvious candidates for positive TD regression (one score from 574 total yards), but he probably won't regress all the way to the mean so long as he's sharing an offense with Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry. The Ravens have now added Diontae Johnson for even more target/touch competition, and right when Flowers is looking at a potential shadow matchup with Broncos CB Patrick Surtain. It's a suboptimal matchup even when Flowers can duck Surtain, as the Broncos have played strong defense overall while also getting good seasons from perimeter corner Riley Moss and slot guardian Ja'Quan McMillian.

• Jaylen Waddle (at BUF) — 57% started

Start Instead —  Tank Dell (at NYJ), Michael Pittman (at MIN), Ladd McConkey (at CLE)

I listed Waddle in the other section last week, optimistic that Tua Tagovailoa's return to the lineup combined with a favorable matchup against the Cardinals would lead to a solid fantasy performance. It didn't pan out even though the Dolphins scored 27 points, in part because RB De'Von Achane and TE Jonnu Smith continued getting significant target shares. Waddle and Tyreek Hill both have taken usage hits with more passes going to RBs and TEs this year, including in the games Tagovailoa has started*. Waddle is always capable of a blow-up game, but there's also a ton of downside risk this week, facing a tough Buffalo defense with a zone-heavy scheme that tends to push targets away from WRs and toward TEs and RBs. 

*Waddle has 15 of the 97 Tua targets (15.5 percent), down from 19.2 percent last year. Hill has 27 of 97 (27.8 percent), down from 31.5 percent last year.

• Other Tough Matchups: Tyreek Hill (vs. BUF), Brian Thomas, Gabe Davis & Parker Washington (at PHI), Zay Flowers (vs. DEN), DeMario Douglas (at TEN)

Tight Ends 👎

• Tucker Kraft (vs. DET) — 46% started

Start Instead (with Willis at QB) — Dalton Schultz (at NYJ), Zach Ertz (at NYG), Hunter Henry (at TEN)

 Start Instead (with Love at QB) — Cade Otton (at KC), Jake Ferguson (at ATL), Sam LaPorta (at GB)

The Lions have allowed the second fewest PPR points to tight ends, but what's even more important is that they've generally played solid defense, netting more takeaways (15) than touchdowns surrendered (13) while allowing scores on just 31.6 percent of drives (sixth best in the leagues). Kraft gets a slight downgrade this week if QB Jordan Love (groin) ends up playing, or a huge downgrade if QB Malik Willis starts and the Packers pivot to their run-heavy offense. Kraft had just five targets, 40 yards and no TD across Willis' previous two starts in Weeks 2-3.

• Other Tough Matchups: Evan Engram (at PHI), Tyler Conklin (vs. HOU)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Geno Smith (vs. LAR)

RB Tyler Allgeier (vs. DAL)

RB Tyjae Spears (vs. NE)

WR Cedric Tillman (vs. LAC)

WR Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC)

TE Zach Ertz (at NYG)

K Will Reichard (vs. IND)

D/ST Bengals (vs. LV)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Bo Nix (at BAL)

RB Justice Hill (vs. DEN)

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (at BAL)

WR Xavier Legette (vs. NO)

WR Jalen Tolbert (at ATL)

WR Darius Slayton (vs. WAS)

WR Alec Pierce (at MIN)

TE Noah Fant (vs. LAR)

K Will Reichard (vs. IND)

K Jason Myers (vs. LAR)

D/ST Titans (vs. NE)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Derek Carr (at CAR)

QB Jameis Winston (vs. LAC)

RB Roschon Johnson (at ARZ)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (vs. JAX)

WR Jalen Coker (vs. NO)

WR Noah Brown (at NYG)

WR Kayshon Boutte (at TEN)

WR Tre Tucker (at CIN)

TE Jonnu Smith (at BUF)

TE Mike Gesicki (vs. LV) - if Higgins is out again

K Blake Grupe (at CAR)

D/ST Patriots (at TEN)