East Coast Offense: Living With It

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Living With It

I was talking with Jeff Erickson on Monday's SXM show about the frustrations with officiating and the NFL's clunky replay process. He wondered why we couldn't just put a chip in the ball already and not have to resort to referee guesswork and anachronistic sticks and chains to measure first downs. I agree the current system is cumbersome and still gets plenty wrong even with all the delays and preposterous interviews with the in-house rules guy. Who on earth wants to spend his Sunday listening to some ex-referee explain the arbitrary technicality on which his team is getting screwed?

But while technology has a role to play, I'm dubious the chip-in-the-ball is a near-term solution. For starters, it's not just where the ball is, but also where the player's knee touched down. It doesn't help much to know the location of the ball in space if you don't know the time coordinate determined by the player's relevant body part. While some would no doubt put a chip in the player (I kid, of course, no one would suggest a player be required to do that!), you'd have to put chips/sensors in his knee pads, pants, shoulder pads and other parts of his uniform, though God forbid his elbow be the part that hit. Maybe there's some obvious solution I'm missing, but it's not clear to me how chipping the ball alone would solve the entire problem. In some cases, the chip could help -- like when a stood-up player is sticking the ball toward the goal line -- but that solves only a small subset of the problems. 

Even in those cases, what happens if the ball looks short, but the chip says it wasn't? If it's close, it's easy to defer to the chip -- that's what it's there for. But what if the player looks to be about six inches short, and the chip says it's a touchdown? That's not supposed to happen, but technology is imperfect, and it's conceivable the sensors could be off slightly. While a ref (and even replay booth) are more likely to botch a call here and there, the chip and its sensors are a single point of failure that could ruin an entire game and leave the refs and teams in the lurch. It's even worse if the chip works flawlessly in some instances and struggles in others, providing a false sense of trust. 

Again, maybe I'm off base, and this is a simple problem others have already worked out, but I'm dubious if we had this new system, there wouldn't be other unforeseen controversies arising from it, the way people 50 years ago had no idea about the replay-generated controversies we deal with today. 

The solution, in my opinion, is to live with referee error. I've just recently started to get over player error -- random fumbles, ill-timed penalties, the quarterback senselessly throwing the ball away on fourth down -- and my next hurdle is the refs. Bad PI call, no PI call, phantom holds away from the ball, personal foul, taunting, etc. They turn games in fantasy, real life and against the spread, but like bad bounces and rainy conditions, it's simply part of the environment. We play (and watch) sports in part to sublimate the urge to kill each other, and to that end, settling beefs via field goals, touchdowns and two-point conversions mediated by bureaucrats in striped shirts has served us well. 

Why do we require perfect justice (as elusive in the real world as a perfect circle) so long as the resolution more or less does the job of deciding who pays whom, who was right and who was wrong, and who can insufferably prattle on about his correct predictions? There is a point at which the errors become so bad games are meaningless, but we are not there yet. As far as I can tell, we can agree the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl last year, and while there were some awful calls in recent years (non PI in the Rams-Saints NFC title game), I've found the path to enjoying the games lies more in accepting their flaws than imagining there's a world in which we eradicate them. 

Week 8 Sporcle

Apropos of Cooper Kupp's 809 yards in seven games, can you name all the receivers (min seven games) who have averaged 105 receiving yards per game for a season?

Guessing The Lines

At first glance, like the Packers, Dolphins, Colts, Patriots, Saints and Giants -- more teams than usual. (I added the Saints because though the line's only two points off, it crosses three.) Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating The Book. 

Week 7 Observations

• I know conditions were bad, so I won't crush Jameis Winston too badly, but he had nothing except restraint, i.e., he didn't turn it over or make the big mistake. His downfield throws were off, and his only good plays were short tosses to Alvin Kamara and a few scrambles.
• Speaking of whom Kamara (20-51-0, 11-10-128-1) had a massive workload and delivered. The running was tough going, but 11 targets will pay the bills every time. People forget he's 5-10, 215, so he's actually built to survive a 250-carry season better than most pass-catching backs.
• Geno Smith had nothing. His one big play to DK Metcalf (5-2-96-1) in the first quarter looked like offensive PI to me, and everything else was short stuff. But like Winston, he dealt with rough conditions.
• Alex Collins (16-35-0, 1-1-9-0) runs hard, but there wasn't much room against the Saints.
• I watched the 40-minute edited version of the game, so I couldn't see whether all the personal fouls were valid, but the refs seemed much too involved in this one.
• I'm glad I didn't have to watch this game in real time. What a waste.
• The 49ers are bad. Jimmy Garoppolo is just a guy like Jared Goff and Jeff George. If your initials are J.G., chances are that's the case. If you're a first-round tight end with initials E.E., (Eric Ebron, Evan Engram), it's also the case.
• Elijah Mitchell (18-107-1) looked like he was shot out of a cannon on the first drive and ordinary after that. Maybe once the rain started, the Colts realized they didn't have to worry about Garoppolo. Unfortunately, JaMycal Hasty (3-1-0, 6-3-15-0) was the third-down back and got the looks in the passing game. Maybe they don't yet trust Mitchell in pass protection.
• Why did the Niners bother to draft Brandon Aiyuk in the first round (and Trey Sermon in the third) if they didn't plan on using them?
• Deebo Samuel (11-7-100-1) is the only game in town.
• Jonathan Taylor (18-107-1, 3-3-3) saw more carries this week and scored a TD, but Carson Wentz took a TD in himself, and Nyheim Hines/Marlon Mack combined for 12 carries.
• Carson Wentz (aside from an inexcusable shovel-pass pick deep in the red zone) played pretty well and scrambled effectively. Missing from his stat sheet are several deep PI penalties.
• Speaking of which Michael Pittman (4-4-105-1) had a massive game when you include the PI he drew.
• Allen Robinson never knew how good he had it with Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky.
• Not only did Gigachad Dave Gettleman take Saquon Barkley over Sam Darnold (more on that below) and Daniel Jones over Dwayne Haskins, he also dealt the Justin Fields pick for Kadarius Toney, a first, a fourth and a fifth.
• Khalil Herbert (18-100-0, 5-5-33-0) had a massive game relative to the opponent, i.e., the league's best rushing defense. He's already surpassed Damien Williams, but it'll be interesting to see what happens when David Montgomery comes back.
• Leonard Fournette (15-81-1, 4-2-9-0) is a top-10-ish back.
• Tom Brady has 21 TD passes, a 51-TD pace.
• Kyler Murray seemed to want to get Zach Ertz (5-3-66-1) going, and targeted him in the red zone a couple times before his 47-yard TD. DeAndre Hopkins saw nine targets, but A.J. Green (3-3-66-0) (again!) and Ertz led the team in receiving yards.
• The Texans offense is unusable.
• The Rams-Lions was a tough watch in part because the announcers (Mark Sanchez and some other NLM) spent the entire game sucking up to Matthew Stafford like he were Kim Jong-un, and we were in North Korea. Meanwhile, the Rams were losing for much of the game, and I had them in Survivor. It would have been grating even under normal circumstances, but had our entry not been a Team of Destiny, I would have defenestrated.
• D'Andre Swift (13-48-0, 10-8-96-1) will be a top-10 back if he stays healthy. He's good, and the Lions have no one else to throw it to except T.J. Hockenson (9-6-48), and teams will scheme to stop him.
• Fifteen-point underdog Dan Campbell tried an onside kick and two fake punts, all of which were successful, but refused to go on 4th-and-3 (FG) and on 4th-and-2 (punt) once the Lions had a lead.
• Cooper Kupp (13-10-156-2) is a monster. He's faster than his timed speed (4.62 40), has slot-WR quickness and catches everything thrown his way. He's on pace for 185-128-1,849-21. Only Davante Adams was ahead of him on my board, but Adams is now on the COVID list and is in jeopardy of missing the Thursday night game, so Kupp is No. 1. 
• The gap between Jalen Hurts in fantasy and real life is cavernous. Amazing the Eagles were even in position late for a long-shot backdoor push.
• If Miles Sanders misses time, Kenneth Gainwell (5-20-0, 8-4-41-1) should get more work, but it might be just as frustrating with Boston Scott (7-24-1, 2-1-5-0) around.
• After seeing Darren Waller get 19 targets in Week 1, I was aghast I had no shares of him. Since then, he hasn't eclipsed 70 yards in a game, scored only one TD and missed Week 7.
• Ja'Marr Chase (10-8-201-1) is averaging a preposterous 14.8 YPT through seven games. That unsustainable mark would be the highest of all time by a mile. He's on pace for 1,721 yards and 14 TD on only 117 targets.
• Among QBs with 150 attempts, Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 9.2 YPA. Only Russell Wilson (125 attempts, 9.6 YPA) has a higher mark.
• Sam Darnold (my favorite player) was benched after putting up 4.4 YPA, throwing a pick and being off-target on some throws. To those who ripped Gettleman for taking Saquon Barkley over Darnold (the consensus pick at the time) and haven't come forth to receive your personalized L, rest assured it has been assigned to a process server who is looking to serve it to you.
• F around with Graham Gano as the Panthers did when they mismanaged his injury in 2019, and find out. Gano was 3-for-3 on field goals Sunday, including a 53-yarder, and has been the best kicker in the NFL not named Justin Tucker since joining the Giants.
• Could it be more obvious Daniel Jones is better than Darnold?
• I made the Dolphins my best bet on Wednesday, but it was obvious later in the week I should have gone with the Patriots. (At least we used them in the SuperContest.)
• Bill Belichick's teams always get stronger as the year goes on, and I'd expect that to be the case even more with a rookie QB, who is incidentally far and away the best in the class so far, albeit that's a low bar to clear.
• Zach Wilson is due to miss time with a knee injury, so it looks like Mike White is the guy. Might as well be this Mike White.
• Kyle Pitts (8-7-163-0) is the TE2 right now, and that's only assuming the Chiefs get it together.
• What a beautiful job by the Dolphins securing the cover.
• Mike Gesicki is a top-five TE. The Dolphins target him a ton, and he makes plays every game. I'd take him over Hockenson right now.
• I didn't watch much of Chiefs-Titans, but the Super Bowl hangover is real. It's amazing the Chiefs scored only three points. It's also amazing the Titans won by 24, and Derrick Henry had only 86 rushing yards.
• A.J. Brown (9-8-133-1) won't get the Chiefs every week, but when healthy he's a top-five WR. I'd like to see him log a full week of practice first, though.
• I took the Team plus 9.5, and they were knocking on the door all day, but couldn't get it done. One could say they were unlucky, but whenever luck comes up, I'll refer to Godwin's fumble.
• D'Ernest Johnson (22-146-1, 2-2-22-0) was the only fantasy player of note in the entire game. I was against bidding big on him with Chubb and eventually Hunt coming back, but that's only because I didn't realize how good he was.
• Case Keenum holds the ball too long at times, but he played competently and showed good touch. I'd probably take him straight up over Teddy Bridgewater in real life, but it's close. There's a chance Keenum keeps the job as Mayfield's left shoulder will need surgery eventually, and it's unclear whether he can play through it.
• Jarvis Landry (8-5-37-0) caught a few passes early and was quiet in the second half. He left in the fourth quarter after landing awkwardly on his injured left knee, but is apparently fine.
• Odell Beckham (6-2-23-0) played through a shoulder injury, made a nice one-handed catch, but was otherwise quiet. As a Giants fan, I love the guy, but I doubt he'll ever be that player again. Donovan Peoples-Jones was a late scratch with a groin injury.
• Bridgewater should be a high-end backup like Keenum. He's a pro, but offers no upside.
• Courtland Sutton (5-5-68-0) and Noah Fant (7-5-39-0) are good players, but they're trapped in a low-octane passing attack and will soon have to share with Jerry Jeudy.
• Melvin Gordon saw more carries than Javonte Williams, but Williams caught six passes for 32 yards and a TD. Gordon also caught a TD, but had only two catches for 14 yards. This is one of the more even workload splits in the league.
• I'm still blown away by how good D'Ernest Johnson looked. He created extra yards on almost every play.