This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
If you're drafting best ball teams early in the offseason, uncertainty about stacking partners can actually be an advantage, allowing for high-upside builds that won't be replicated nearly as often as stuff like Mahomes/Kelce/Rice (KC) or Jackson/Andrews/Flowers (BAL). A lot of people have figured out pairing DJ Moore and Caleb Williams at this point, with all signs pointing to the Bears drafting a new QB at No. 1 overall to replace Justin Fields.
While that domino technically hasn't fallen, it feels like a reasonable assumption and gives us a starting point to figure out what other teams might do at the QB spot this offseason. By my count, there are 12 teams in the AFC and 10 in the NFC that almost certainly have their Week 1 starter under contract right now.
That leaves us with 10 uncertain teams, ranging from ones that almost definitely will have a new starter (Bears, Falcons) to those that seem more likely to run it back with the same guy (Bucs, Steelers). Below we'll take a look at potential outcomes for those teams and QBs.
Chicago Bears
Likely QB: Caleb Williams
This is the easiest one to figure out, and we also know DJ Moore and Cole Kmet will be two of the primary pass catchers. No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney is a free agent, and a lot of mock drafts have the Bears using their second first-round pick (No. 9) on Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze. Even if they don't get Odunze, the Bears will have every opportunity to add to their WR room either Day 1 or Day 2. They might also consider free agents like Calvin Ridley and Marquise Brown, and they have 2023 fourth-round pick Tyler Scott as a solid candidate for the No. 3 WR job.
Williams-Kmet-Scott is an intriguing stack that doesn't require a top-100 pick, and Williams-Moore-Odunze is also a perfectly reasonable play (though much more expensive). I wouldn't bother with low-probability scenarios like the Bears keeping Justin Fields or drafting Maye/Daniels over Williams.
Washington Commanders
Likely QB(s): Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels
This seems to be the new biggest question, apart from maybe Fields' landing spot via trade. Maye has been viewed as a likely early first-round pick for a couple years, but now we're seeing a lot of predictions that the Commanders will take LSU's Daniels instead. It's between those two if you're looking for a stacking partner for Terry McLaurin and/or Jahan Dotson; ignore errant rumors about stuff like Kirk Cousins coming back to Washington.
New England Patriots
Likely QB(s): Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels
The Patriots are more likely than the Commanders to trade back, as they may not have any say in which of the highly drafted QBs they come away with. If both teams prefer the same guy, New England could pass entirely. Other rumors have mentioned signing Baker Mayfield or drafting J.J. McCarthy earlier than most expect. The first part would entail Tampa Bay not re-signing Mayfield, while the McCarthy thing could be more in New England's control.
In any case, there's not a ton of reason to worry about this for best ball. Kendrick Bourne (ACL) and Hunter Henry both are impending free agents, leaving Demario Douglas as the only pass catcher of interest who will almost certainly be in New England. I'm on record as being a Douglas fan, and at this point pairing him with Maye or Daniels makes the most sense, followed by McCarthy.
Atlanta Falcons
Likely QB(s): Kirk Cousins / Justin Fields / J.J. McCarthy
ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the Falcons will make a strong push for Cousins and quite possibly outbid the Vikings for his services. Their new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, comes from a Rams team that had considerable success with QBs who offered zero rushing threat -- Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford -- but that doesn't mean Fields couldn't also make it work.
The Falcons also are reported to have interest in Baker Mayfield, but he'd first need to make it to free agency rather than re-signing with Tampa Bay. Stacking Cousins with Drake London and/or Kyle Pitts makes a lot of sense, as a Cousins signing would represent the best possible outcome for Atlanta's top pass catchers. Fields scrambles or takes sacks on a huge percentage of dropbacks, which impacts the receiving projections even if he does find success after Chicago.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Likely QB(s): Baker Mayfield
Wild Card(s): Russell Wilson / Michael Penix / Bo Nix / Jacoby Brissett
It's no secret the Bucs want to re-sign Mayfield, which means they probably will. If not, they could pivot to Wilson or a third-tier rookie like Michael Penix or Bo Nix. For now, Mayfield remains the sensible stacking partner for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
If negotiations go south, Wilson or one of the third-tier rookies would make sense as a Plan B... Fields may already have been traded by that point, and Cousins likely will be out of the equation as well.
Minnesota Vikings
Likely QB(s): Kirk Cousins / Russell Wilson / J.J. McCarthy / Michael Penix / Bo Nix / Jacoby Brissett
The Vikings prefer to re-sign Cousins but may not be willing to meet his contract demands. If he does indeed jump ship to Atlanta, the Vikings would be wise to focus on the draft rather than veteran backup plans. If they couldn't get over the hump with Cousins, it's not going to happen with Wilson or Baker Mayfield leading a similar roster.
The problem for best ball is that you don't really want Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison stuck with a rookie QB after using an early pick on them. So it probably still makes sense to pair those guys with Cousins, whose presence under center would correspond with the best projections for both volume and efficiency for Minnesota's WRs. Nix is the sneaky option, as he's already 24 and got a ton of starting experience in college, i.e., the prospect profile reads pro-ready / high-floor, low-ceiling.
Las Vegas Raiders
Likely QB(s): Aidan O'Connell / J.J. McCarthy / Justin Fields / Michael Penix / Bo Nix
The Raiders look to have found a solid backup in the fifth round of last year's draft and might even have some hope O'Connell can be a decent starter, but most reports suggest they aren't so optimistic that they'll avoid adding QB talent this offseason. McCarthy could be an option with the No. 8 pick, or perhaps they'd need to trade up for him if the latest rumors about his rising stock are true.
I'd also say the Raiders make the most sense as a match for Fields, especially now that Atlanta is said to be so interested in Cousins. None of the likely outcomes is especially great for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, with the Raiders seemingly unlikely to make a move for a veteran pocket passer.
Denver Broncos
Likely QB(s): Jarrett Stidham / J.J. McCarthy / Bo Nix / Michael Penix
This is the "who cares" section, seeing as Jerry Jeudy is scheduled for free agency and Courtland Sutton might be a cap casualty. I guess stacking Sutton with Nix or Penix makes sense, as they could end up together in Denver or on another team. That said, Nix and Penix are going undrafted a lot in best ball, both at risk of landing on teams that already have veteran starters.
New York Giants
Likely QB(s): Daniel Jones
Wild Card(s): J.J. McCarthy / Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels
The Giants pick sixth in the upcoming draft, giving them a decent shot to land either McCarthy or Maye/Daniels if one of them falls. They also own picks No. 39 and 47, so trading up is an option as well. Daniel Jones, meanwhile, has a fully guaranteed salary for 2024 but only injury guarantees for 2025. In other words, there's a decent chance he's ousted after this season even if he rebounds from the ACL tear and starts most/all of the team's games in 2024.
In terms of best-ball stacking, there's too much uncertainty for me to really get behind anything, as the Giants may also be headed for an overhaul of their pass-catching corps. TE Darren Waller is considering retirement, WR Darius Slayton is a potential cap casualty and WR Jalin Hyatt didn't do enough as a rookie to ensure he'll have a starting job this year. WR Wan'Dale Robinson is the safest bet to draw targets for the 2024 Giants at this point, so stacking him with Jones or McCarthy works as a late-round strategy.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Likely QB(s): Kenny Pickett / Mason Rudolph
Wild Card(s): Russell Wilson / Bo Nix / Michael Penix / Jacoby Brissett
We've seen multiple reports out of Pittsburgh suggesting the plan is to re-sign Rudolph and allow him to compete with Pickett for the starting job. A lot of Steelers fans rightfully disagree, but there's enough smoke in the room to consider it the most likely outcome right now, though far from the near-guarantee some Pittsburgh beat writers are pushing it as.
GM Omar Khan was unhelpful when talking to media at the combine, sending mixed signals by saying he has "full confidence" in Pickett but also hopes to re-sign Rudolph and wants to "look at every option" at the position. To be fair, it sounded like Khan was talking about depth more so than looking at definite starters like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield. Picking 20th, the Steelers could draft a QB on Day 1 or 2 even if they intend for Pickett to be the Day 1 starter.
Pittsburgh is the betting favorite to land Wilson, FWIW, though the -200 odds I'm seeing feel like a ridiculous overestimation/rip-off. Still, there's a solid enough argument for drafting Wilson and WR George Pickens together, considering Wilson's strength lies in passing downfield outside the numbers.
