This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
What a solid week! I went 10-2-1 according to my criteria - I knew better about the Dolphins-Ravens, Saints-Bears and maybe Falcons-Jets - but otherwise I picked exactly who I truly believed would cover. In "objective reality" and by conventional scoring those picks went 3-10. I even found myself getting caught up in the results during the games and feeling anxious and upset. What does it matter? After I post the pick, it's out of my hands.
This week, I had a tough time deciding how I feel about the games. No matter how much I purport not to care about results, they do affect my confidence. Not that it matters. Last week, I felt great about my picks.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Bills -3 at Jets
I usually take the home team in Thursday night games, and I see no reason to change that policy here. The Jets have competed more often than not, and they're getting points on the short week. Back New York.
Bills 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +8 at Eagles
I want to take the Broncos here. They outplayed the Chiefs Monday night in Kansas City, but for a few fluky plays, and their defense is still elite. Take the points.
Eagles 23 - 17
Rams -3.5 at Giants
My brain says Rams, especially with Janoris Jenkins suspended, but my gut says the Giants will play them tough and keep it close. I'll go with my gut.
Rams 20 - 17
Buccaneers +7 at Saints
Suddenly,
What a solid week! I went 10-2-1 according to my criteria - I knew better about the Dolphins-Ravens, Saints-Bears and maybe Falcons-Jets - but otherwise I picked exactly who I truly believed would cover. In "objective reality" and by conventional scoring those picks went 3-10. I even found myself getting caught up in the results during the games and feeling anxious and upset. What does it matter? After I post the pick, it's out of my hands.
This week, I had a tough time deciding how I feel about the games. No matter how much I purport not to care about results, they do affect my confidence. Not that it matters. Last week, I felt great about my picks.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Bills -3 at Jets
I usually take the home team in Thursday night games, and I see no reason to change that policy here. The Jets have competed more often than not, and they're getting points on the short week. Back New York.
Bills 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +8 at Eagles
I want to take the Broncos here. They outplayed the Chiefs Monday night in Kansas City, but for a few fluky plays, and their defense is still elite. Take the points.
Eagles 23 - 17
Rams -3.5 at Giants
My brain says Rams, especially with Janoris Jenkins suspended, but my gut says the Giants will play them tough and keep it close. I'll go with my gut.
Rams 20 - 17
Buccaneers +7 at Saints
Suddenly, the Saints are a run-first and defense team, less likely to put up big numbers. The Bucs are terrible, but they have the personnel to hang around in what could be a back and forth game. Take the points.
Saints 27 - 23
Bengals +4.5 at Jaguars
The Jaguars are the obvious play here - why isn't this line seven? The Jaguars' defensive line should annihilate the Bengals' terrible offensive one. Sometimes the obvious is correct. Lay the wood.
Jaguars 23 - 9
Falcons +1 at Panthers
Another strange line for the Falcons who the book seems to like more than I do. Why wouldn't this line be three? The Panthers defense is good, and Cam Newton should move the ball against the Falcons defense. Take Carolina.
Panthers 23 - 20
Colts +13 at Texans
After what he did in Seattle, it's impossible not to love Deshaun Watson, but Houston's defense isn't great, and this is a ton of points. Take the Colts.
Texans 27 - 17
Ravens +5.5 at Titans
The Ravens can run the ball, and their defense is good, but their passing game is still among the worst I've ever seen. The Titans were life and death against the Browns last we saw them, though, so I think it's smarter to expect this to be a close game. Take the points.
Titans 24 - 20
LATE GAMES
Cardinals -2 at 49ers
The Cardinals with Drew Stanton are laying road wood? LOL. But C.J. Beathard, who will start this week, despite the acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo, is abominable. I'll take the Niners in the hope Garoppolo comes in for the second half.
49ers 17 - 16
Redskins +7 at Seahawks
The Redskins are okay, but their offensive line injuries and lack of production from their wideouts is a problem, and Seattle, despite the shootout against the Texans last week, still has a good defense. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 31 - 20
Chiefs pick 'em at Cowboys
I want to take the Cowboys at home against a weak Chiefs defense, but three things are holding me back: (1) The Chiefs have one good cover corner, Marcus Peters, and he can shadow the Cowboys only dangerous receiver, Dez Bryant; (2) Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) might not play; and (3) The Chiefs kicker, Harrison Butker, is much better than the Cowboys kicker, Mike Nugent, something that makes a difference in what's presumably a close game. Still, I stick with my instincts and take the Cowboys who should move the ball pretty easily.
Cowboys 31 - 30
SUNDAY NIGHT
Raiders -3 at Dolphins
Backing the Dolphins last week was a stupid mistake, but I like buying low after the embarrassing loss. The Raiders could be considered a buy-low also, but they're laying points on the road, so their price hasn't dipped that much. Take the home dog.
Dolphins 27 - 24
MONDAY NIGHT
Lions -2.5 at Packers
I hate this game. The Lions are nothing special, especially on the road, but Brett Hundley looked terrible two weeks ago against the Saints. The smart money has to be on the Packers, but I'll lay the wood.
Lions 23 - 20
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I went 3-10 against the spread in Week 8 to put me at 58-57-4 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 20-19-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
