Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 17

Last week started badly (0-2 on Saturday), but finished strong (lateral-six for the push!) I wound up 7-7-2, went 3-2 on SuperContest picks and won my best bet. It's not been a great year, though best bets are 12-3-1.

This week I especially like the Dolphins and Raiders.

EARLY GAMES

Packers +7 at Lions

My brain says the Lions usually roll in games like this - at home and against a weak opponent. But for whatever reason I have a Packers feeling. Maybe Jamaal Williams runs for 150 yards or something. Take the points.

Lions 27 - 23

Jets +15.5 at Patriots

The Jets have outperformed expectations all year - even with Bryce Petty at QB - but the Patriots need this game to lock up the No. 1 seed over the Steelers. It's a close call as the Pats often pull away late like they did last week, but I'm taking the points.

Patriots 27 - 13

Texans +4 at Colts

The Texans are bad, it's true, but the Colts are at least as bad, and this line is bigger than three. Take the points.

Texans 20 - 19

Browns +13 at Steelers

The Steelers are likely to go all out at least for as long as the Jets-Patriots game is competitive. If the Pats get out to a massive lead, Pittsburgh could pack it in, though. Regardless, I'm fading the Browns until at least 2025. Lay the wood.

Steelers 30 - 13

Redskins -3.5 at Giants

The Giants are a perfect buy-low, at home and facing a beatable opponent. But I'm loath to back Eli and that crumbling defense. This was the hardest game for me this week. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.

Redskins 23 - 20

Bears +12 at Vikings

The Bears seem to alternate good and bad depending on the level of competition. A road game against the Vikings is as tough as it gets, and Minnesota needs to win to lock up a first-round bye (though even if they lost they'd almost certainly have it anyway.) Lay the points.

Vikings 26 - 13

Cowboys -2.5 at Eagles

The Eagles looked terrible the last two weeks, and they have nothing for which to play. Take the Cowboys who will go all out after an embarrassing end to their season last week.

Cowboys 24 - 17

LATE GAMES

Bengals +9.5 at Ravens

The Bengals showed up last week, but the Ravens, who can get into the playoffs with a win, will be going all out and tend to bully teams at home. My brain says the Ravens but my gut says to take the points. I'll go with Cincy.

Ravens 24 - 16

Bills -3 at Dolphins

The Bills are still in the playoff hunt, but it's not like the Dolphins care. Moreover, the Bills are far worse on the road, and Miami has played better of late. Take the home dog.

Dolphins 24 - 23

Panthers +3.5 at Falcons

Both teams need this game for different reasons. The Falcons need to win in order to make the playoffs, while the Panthers are playing for home field in the Wild Card round and a possible first-round bye in the unlikely event the Vikings, Saints and Rams lose. Take the points.

Panthers 23 - 20

Saints -7 at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have showed up the last couple weeks, and Jameis Winston is playing pretty well. I'll take the points here even though the Saints could secure a home game in the Wild Card round with a win.

Saints 27 - 21

Jaguars +4 at Titans

The Jaguars say they're going all out, but it's the Titans who need this game as Jacksonville is locked into the three seed. Still, I have so little respect for the Titans, I'll take the points.

Jaguars 20 - 13

Raiders +8 at Chargers

The Raiders defense has played better of late, and the Chargers haven't looked like themselves the last two games. San Diego has a shot at the playoffs, but it would be so Chargers to blow it here. Take the Raiders.

Chargers 20 - 19

Cardinals +8.5 at Seahawks

The Seahawks could roll at home, but these are familiar teams, and this is a big number. Take the Cardinals who keep it close enough.

Seahawks 24 - 17

Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos

The Chiefs have nothing for which to play, but the Broncos are starting Paxton Lynch. Even so I'll lay the wood here. Take Denver.

Broncos 20 - 13

49ers +3 at Rams

The Rams are locked into the division and can't get a first-round bye. As such, you might think they'd sit starters and let this one go as usually it's not especially important to be the No. 3 as opposed to the No. 4 seed. But the fact the Eagles are without their starting QB puts some interesting considerations in play. For starters, wouldn't the Rams want the No. 4 seed so they could go to Philly rather than Minnesota? Or, because the Eagles are more likely to lose than a typical No. 1 seed, would the Rams prefer to have the No. 3 seed, given the likelihood the No. 4 seed (New Orleans or Carolina) takes out the Eagles in the Divisional Round? Put differently, if the Rams won in Minnesota, they'd then host the NFC title game if they were the No. 3 seed, and the No. 4 beat the Eagles.

It's impossible to know what Sean McVay's thinking, but I'll go ahead and take the points as I'm pretty sure the Niners will show up regardless.

49ers 24 - 23

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I went 7-7-2 against the spread in Week 16 to put me at 110-116-14 on the season. I went 3-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 41-36-3 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.