This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
What a brutal week. I went 3-10-3, and it was a good reminder of the fine line between trusting informed subjective observations and straight-up being a square. I want to pick like a square - with conviction - as often as possible, but it should be based on experience-based intuition, not recency-bias-tainted narrative. But again, it's a fine line and one's folly is easier to spot in hindsight.
This week, I especially like the Ravens, Bengals, Titans and Bills.
SATURDAY GAMES
Colts +13.5 at Ravens
The Ravens are bullies, and they play much better at home. The Colts are in shambles, and their coach is a lame duck. Lay the wood.
Ravens 33 - 6
Vikings -9 at Packers
No Aaron Rodgers, maybe no Davante Adams, the Packers have packed it in for the year. But this is a massive line on the road against a division rival, and Brett Hundley has everything for which to play. Take the points
Vikings 23 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions -5 at Bengals
The Bengals haven't shown up for two weeks, but the third time's the charm. This is a potentially bad weather home game, and the Lions defense is nothing special. Take the home dog.
Bengals 23 - 20
Chargers -7 at Jets
The Jets have punched above their weight class all year, but the oddsmakers are still treating them as doormats. The Chargers are also worse when they don't go to Hunter Henry, and Henry's now on IR.
What a brutal week. I went 3-10-3, and it was a good reminder of the fine line between trusting informed subjective observations and straight-up being a square. I want to pick like a square - with conviction - as often as possible, but it should be based on experience-based intuition, not recency-bias-tainted narrative. But again, it's a fine line and one's folly is easier to spot in hindsight.
This week, I especially like the Ravens, Bengals, Titans and Bills.
SATURDAY GAMES
Colts +13.5 at Ravens
The Ravens are bullies, and they play much better at home. The Colts are in shambles, and their coach is a lame duck. Lay the wood.
Ravens 33 - 6
Vikings -9 at Packers
No Aaron Rodgers, maybe no Davante Adams, the Packers have packed it in for the year. But this is a massive line on the road against a division rival, and Brett Hundley has everything for which to play. Take the points
Vikings 23 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions -5 at Bengals
The Bengals haven't shown up for two weeks, but the third time's the charm. This is a potentially bad weather home game, and the Lions defense is nothing special. Take the home dog.
Bengals 23 - 20
Chargers -7 at Jets
The Jets have punched above their weight class all year, but the oddsmakers are still treating them as doormats. The Chargers are also worse when they don't go to Hunter Henry, and Henry's now on IR. Take the points.
Chargers 23 - 17
Rams -6.5 at Titans
The Titans are garbage, but the Rams aren't great against the run, and I'd expect this to be a tough game in Tennessee. I also like that the Rams are coming off a massive emotional high after crushing the Seahawks in Seattle. Take the points.
Titans 24 - 23
Browns +6.5 at Bears
I actually switched from the Ravens to the Browns last week at the last minute. Never again. The Bears can run the ball and have the better defense. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 13
Buccaneers +10 at Panthers
Jameis Winston looked good last week, but that was a home game against the Falcons. I expect this to be competitive early, but the Panthers pull away. Take Carolina.
Panthers 31 - 20
Falcons +5.5 at Saints
This is the right line. These two teams usually have competitive games, but the Saints are slightly better. I'll take the points here, though, in a rivalry game.
Saints 27 - 23
Broncos +3.5 at Redskins
I liked what I saw out of Brock Osweiler last week - he seemed to be enjoying himself, leading the team to a win. But that was against arguably the worst team in the league, and this week, he faces a real opponent. The Redskins aren't great, but they're just good enough to cover this number. Lay the points.
Redskins 24 - 20
Dolphins +10.5 at Chiefs
The Dolphins look like a different team the last few weeks. Even in their loss to Buffalo, they more or less showed up in a cold-weather road venue. The Chiefs are solid again now that Andy Reid has decided to use his star running back after abandoning him for God knows what reason. But KC's defense is still suspect, and this is probably enough points. Take the Dolphins.
Chiefs 31 - 23
Bills +12 at Patriots
I'm torn here. On the one hand, I want to lay the wood with New England at home, but on the other, the Pats were lucky to escape with a win at Pittsburgh and haven't played especially well the last two weeks. Moreover, the Bills have a legitimate beef with the Pats after Rob Gronkowski cheap-shotted Tre'Davious White long after the whistle a few weeks ago, giving White a concussion. This is narrative street, i.e., don't try this at home, but I think the Bills show up and give the Pats all they can handle. Take the points.
Bills 24 - 23
LATE GAMES
Jaguars -4.5 at 49ers
The Jaguars are a dangerous playoff team with that defense, but this is too many points on the road against a 49ers team that would probably be at least 8-8 if the season started three weeks ago. Take the points.
Jaguars 20 - 19
Giants +3.5 at Cardinals
I don't know what to make of Eli Manning's out-of-nowhere explosion against the Eagles, but I'll sell high and take the Cardinals here at home. Lay the wood.
Cardinals 24 - 17
Seahawks +5 at Cowboys
The Seahawks run defense is a major problem now, just in time for Zeke Elliott's return. But after their humiliation at home by the Rams, I expect the Seahawks to show up. And the disparity in coaching is massive. Take the points.
Seahawks 27 - 24
CHRISTMAS DAY
Steelers -9.5 at Texans
The Texans are bad, but this is a big line on the road, and Antonio Brown is out. Take the home dog.
Steelers 27 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Raiders +9 at Eagles
The is a big line for a backup QB, but the Raiders defense is terrible, and I think the Eagles defense will bounce back at home against Derek Carr. Lay the wood.
Eagles 31 - 17
To hear the podcast version of this article, click here.
I went 3-10-3 against the spread in Week 15 to put me at 103-109-12 on the season. I went 1-2-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 38-34-3 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
