This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I was 13-1 by my scoring method, selling myself out on the Bears when I knew the Packers were the right play. Otherwise, I was more or less true to myself in what turned out to be a 4-10 week.
I could complain about bad beats on Thursday night (blocked PAT cost me the cover) or with the Browns in Detroit, but that would give too much importance to the actual real-world result. What does it matter if one team blocks an extra point? Why should I make it my problem? Sure, the bookie might be coming to my house with a gun, looking to collect, but that's only because he's confused about the nature of reality at the deepest level.
This week, I particularly like the Chargers and Patriots.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Titans +7 at Steelers
I did an experiment this week and created the final scores before looking at the lines. I had this one 23-16, but I can't pick a push. When in doubt, take the dog. Except if it's on the road during a Thursday game. I'll take the Steelers here.
Steelers 24 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions -3 at Bears
The Lions are just okay, and the Bears are a decent buy-low after their home loss to the Packers. Take the points.
Lions 20 - 19
Chiefs -10.5 at Giants
Andy Reid with the extra week to prepare is deadly, and it's not going to take a rocket scientist to figure out the Giants defense. The
I was 13-1 by my scoring method, selling myself out on the Bears when I knew the Packers were the right play. Otherwise, I was more or less true to myself in what turned out to be a 4-10 week.
I could complain about bad beats on Thursday night (blocked PAT cost me the cover) or with the Browns in Detroit, but that would give too much importance to the actual real-world result. What does it matter if one team blocks an extra point? Why should I make it my problem? Sure, the bookie might be coming to my house with a gun, looking to collect, but that's only because he's confused about the nature of reality at the deepest level.
This week, I particularly like the Chargers and Patriots.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Titans +7 at Steelers
I did an experiment this week and created the final scores before looking at the lines. I had this one 23-16, but I can't pick a push. When in doubt, take the dog. Except if it's on the road during a Thursday game. I'll take the Steelers here.
Steelers 24 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions -3 at Bears
The Lions are just okay, and the Bears are a decent buy-low after their home loss to the Packers. Take the points.
Lions 20 - 19
Chiefs -10.5 at Giants
Andy Reid with the extra week to prepare is deadly, and it's not going to take a rocket scientist to figure out the Giants defense. The Chiefs will score a ton of points. The only question is to what extent the Giants keep up. I say they do - barely. Take the points.
Chiefs 31 - 21
Buccaneers +1 at Dolphins
As luck would have it, I made the score Dolphins 24-23, and I can't pick a push. In which case, I suppose I'll hold my nose and buy low on Miami.
Dolphins 27 - 23
Ravens -2 at Packers
I hate both these teams, but I trust the Ravens defense the most of the four units, and they have a better coach. Lay the wood.
Ravens 16 - 13
Rams +2.5 at Vikings
This is a big test for both teams. I'll take the Rams who are a little more creative on offense and probably have the better quarterback.
Rams 24 - 23
Cardinals +1 at Texans
The Texans quarterback play is barbaric, to be sure, but Blaine Gabbert, who might be forced to play for Arizona, is hardly the paragon of civilization. The Texans should probably be three-point favorites, but Tom Savage is so bad I'm taking the Cardinals.
Cardinals 20 - 17
Jaguars -7.5 at Browns
The Jaguars are good, but the Browns, who stop the run and don't pass much anyway, match-up well against them. Take the points here.
Jaguars 20 - 13
Redskins +7.5 at Saints
The Saints are legitimately good, but the Redskins usually show up and should be able to hang around. Take Washington.
Saints 26 - 20
LATE GAMES
Bills +4 at Chargers
The Bills aren't especially good, and the Chargers are, even if San Diego (I caught myself this time, but I won't change it) finds bizarre new ways to give games away virtually every week. Still, I'll lay the wood, given how small this line is and the fact the Bills are benching Tyrod Taylor.
Chargers 27 - 17
Bengals +2.5 at Broncos
Neither team can generate much offense, and both play good defense. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the underdog in what should be a low-scoring game. Back Cincinnati.
Broncos 16 - 14
Raiders +6.5 vs* Patriots
*Game in Mexico City
The Patriots looked awfully sharp in Denver last week, and while the Raiders should move the ball, this isn't nearly enough points. Lay the wood.
Patriots 34 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Eagles -3.5 at Cowboys
The Cowboys are missing some key players (Ezekiel Elliott, Sean Lee and possibly Tyron Smith), but this is a big swing in the line, and as long as Dak Prescott is playing, I expect this game to be competitive. Take the home dog.
Eagles 26 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Falcons +3 at Seahawks
The loss of Richard Sherman is significant, but I don't trust Atlanta to force-feed Julio Jones enough to take maximum advantage of it. This is also a tough venue in which to play for road teams, especially at night. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 30 - 23
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I went 4-10 against the spread in Week 10 to put me at 69-72-5 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 24-25-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
