This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was mediocre on its face (7-6-1), but it was a strong 7-6-1. The push (the first of the year, oddly) was on the Buccaneers who would have covered but for the Seahawks missing a field goal, sending it to overtime and winning the coin toss, and two of the losses were the Colts (right side all game despite losing their QB, would have covered if Adam Vinatieri hits an easy FG) and the Redskins (only took them because I presumed Case Keenum was starting.) I won my best bet (Ravens) and went 4-0-1 in the Super Contest.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs, Cardinals, Bears and Cowboys. I'm sketchiest on the Dolphins and Rams.
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers -1 at Raiders
The Chargers always seem to turn it on in the second half, and they've gotten some key players back. But laying a point on the road against a solid Raiders team is a bridge too far. Give me the Raiders.
Raiders 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Chiefs -3.5 at Titans
I'm presuming Patrick Mahomes will be back, in which case I love the Chiefs who have improved defensively the last few weeks. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 23
Bills +3 at Browns
I don't think much of the Bills, but they shouldn't be getting the full three against a dysfunctional Browns team that fails a new test every week.
Last week was mediocre on its face (7-6-1), but it was a strong 7-6-1. The push (the first of the year, oddly) was on the Buccaneers who would have covered but for the Seahawks missing a field goal, sending it to overtime and winning the coin toss, and two of the losses were the Colts (right side all game despite losing their QB, would have covered if Adam Vinatieri hits an easy FG) and the Redskins (only took them because I presumed Case Keenum was starting.) I won my best bet (Ravens) and went 4-0-1 in the Super Contest.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs, Cardinals, Bears and Cowboys. I'm sketchiest on the Dolphins and Rams.
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers -1 at Raiders
The Chargers always seem to turn it on in the second half, and they've gotten some key players back. But laying a point on the road against a solid Raiders team is a bridge too far. Give me the Raiders.
Raiders 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Chiefs -3.5 at Titans
I'm presuming Patrick Mahomes will be back, in which case I love the Chiefs who have improved defensively the last few weeks. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 23
Bills +3 at Browns
I don't think much of the Bills, but they shouldn't be getting the full three against a dysfunctional Browns team that fails a new test every week. Take the points.
Bills 23 - 20
Cardinals +4.5 at Buccaneers
I like the Cardinals here. The Buccaneers don't defend the pass, and Jameis Winston turns the ball over way too much. Plus, Kyler Murray looks like the real deal to me. Take the points.
Cardinals 27 - 24
Giants -2.5 at Jets
I made this line 3.5 just to make sure I was on the Giants. I don't care what the right line should be, but as a Giants fan and Jets hater, there's no way I could be on the other side.
Giants 51 - 0
Falcons +13 at Saints
I set this line at 13.5, as this is arguably the league's best team at home against one of its worst. The only negative is the familiarity between the teams, but I'm laying the wood.
Saints 31 - 17
Ravens -10 at Bengals
I honestly thought this line would be bigger with the winless Bengals starting a backup QB. I made it 13, so I'm on the Ravens.
Ravens 33 - 13
Lions +2.5 at Bears
I'm surprised the Lions aren't getting at least the full three in what should be a bad match-up for Matthew Stafford and the receivers, the only above-average aspect of the team. I actually made the line 4.5 as I expect the Bears to shut them down and pound the rock. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 13
LATE GAMES
Dolphins +10.5 at Colts
I'm assuming Brian Hoyer is starting, in which case I had the line at only nine. If Jacoby Brissett plays, I might be on the Colts, but I have to make the call now, so take the points.
Colts 26 - 17
Panthers +5 at Packers
I made this line six. The Packers receivers are terrible, but maybe Davante Adams will show a pulse in his second game back. I also like Aaron Rodgers better at home. Lay the wood.
Packers 27 - 20
Rams -3.5 at Steelers
I wanted to be on the Rams, so I aggressively set the line at minus 3.5, and when I checked Tuesday, I couldn't believe it was four! So I resigned to take the Steelers, who looked awful against the Colts, and even talked myself into them. But now it's down to 3.5, and I have the choice. I'll go with my initial instinct and back Los Angeles, even though Jared Goff on the road could be a disaster.
Rams 24 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Vikings +3 at Cowboys
I like the Cowboys here. Their defense looked great against the Giants, Kirk Cousins struggles against a good rush, and he's missing his best receiver. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 27 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Seahawks +6 at 49ers
This is right where I set the line. On the one hand, the 49ers are a much better team, but on the other Russell Wilson is one of the greatest players of all time. I suppose I'll take the 49ers with extra rest and prep time, but it's a coin flip.
49ers 30 - 23
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
Last week, I went 7-6-1, won my best bet (the Ravens), and went 4-0-1 in the Super Contest. I'm now 62-72-1 on the year, 4-5 on best bets and 20-23-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
