This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Arizona vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
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The Alamo Bowl brings us a matchup between two teams wrapping up their final season in their respective conferences. The Arizona Wildcats' final season in the PAC-12 comes to a close with a surprising regular season record of 9-3. The Oklahoma Sooners cap off their final season in the BIG12 before heading to the SEC with a record of 10-2. After beating Texas in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners had a clear path to the College Football Playoff but faltered down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma comes into this game with a lot up in the air as they have 15 players in the transfer portal, including starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Arizona vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds for the Alamo Bowl
Spread: Arizona -2.5 (BetMGM); Oklahoma +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Arizona -140 (PointsBet); Oklahoma +130 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 62 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 62.5 (BetMGM)
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Arizona vs. Oklahoma Betting Picks for the Alamo Bowl
After opening at Arizona -1.5 on most major books, the spread has slowly crept up as high as Arizona -3. The game total has also moved a bit after opening at 64. It is now down to as low as 62. The line movement here is likely due to the number of players in the transfer portal for Oklahoma, the biggest impact of which is Dillon Gabriel. Like many of the recent bowl games, there will likely be more line movement closer to kickoff.
Arizona vs. Oklahoma Expert Pick: Under 62.5 (BetMGM)
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On the offensive side of the ball, Oklahoma has been very good this year from an Expected Points Added (EPA) standpoint, ranking ninth in EPA/pass and 34th in EPA/rush (via CFP-Graphs), but not only are the Sooners losing their starting quarterback they will also be without second and third-string running backs Tawee Walker and Marcus Major who have combined for over 800 yards on the ground this season. Oklahoma has also had a very good year defensively, ranking 13th in EPA/pass and fourth in EPA/rush (via CFP-Graphs). However, they will be without starting safety. Key Lawrence in this one as he has also entered the transfer portal. Arizona has been very good from an EPA standpoint, as they rank 19th in the nation in EPA/pass and 30th in EPA/rush offensively (via CFP-Graphs). On the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats rank 26th in the nation in EPA/pass and 17th in EPA/rush (via CFP-Graphs). Unlike Oklahoma, Arizona does not have nearly the same impact from the transfer portal as they have nine players in the transfer portal, none of whom made much of an impact this season for the Wildcats.
Arizona vs. Oklahoma Predictions for the Alamo Bowl
The biggest loss here for either team is Dillon Gabriel, along with the loss of two major contributing running backs; I expect this to have a noticeable impact on this Oklahoma offense. With the short-handed Oklahoma offense and two stout defenses that have had little portal impact, I don't expect this game to be a shootout. Oklahoma has allowed 30 or more points just three times on the season, and Arizona has allowed 30 or more points just four times this season, two of which were two the PAC12 Championship combatants Oregon and Washington. With the propensity of these two teams to not allow big points and the depleted Oklahoma offense I see the best play being the under in this one.
