CFB FanDuel DFS Breakdown for The Fiesta Bowl
Miami and Ole Miss square off in Glendale, Arizona, with a trip to the National Championship Game on the line, and we've got college football DFS picks for the showdown slate.
Both squads have earned their way this point with multiple victories in the CFP First Round and then again in the quarterfinals. Miami's route to this point was seemingly more difficult with matchups against Ohio State and Texas A&M versus Ole Miss' Tulane matchup followed by a showdown with Alabama.
The Hurricanes' defense has proven to be suffocating thus far, surrendering just 14 points to Ohio State and only three to A&M last time out. The "defense wins championships" mantra will be put to the test in this one against an Ole Miss squad that has tallied a combined 80 points between its first two CFP matchups.
The Rebels rank ninth in FBS, averaging 36.8 points per game, but have struggled defensively at times. The reverse is true for the Hurricanes, who have a stifling defense but have had some trouble scoring in the CFP, notching a combined 34 points through two playoff contests.
Vegas does anticipate both teams putting up some points in this one, with a 52.5-point line, and the Hurricanes are favored by 3.5 points at most books.
Notable College Football Injuries/Absences for CFP Semifinal
No offensive injuries. Ahmad Moten injured his ankle last time out, but is expected to play.
College Football DFS Tools
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Stats
- Team Trends
- Targets
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
Miami vs Ole Miss CFB DFS Showdown Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
Captain Plays
Kewan Lacy ($14,400 DK; $18,600 FD), RB, Ole Miss
Lacy will run you the most of the trio of options I'm including among my captain picks, and for good reason. He has hit pay dirt at least once in each of the last eight games, totaling 15 rushing scores over that span. He's also a candidate to top the century mark and add in those bonus points, falling just two yards shy against Georgia last time out. Miami has also yielded a combined 17 receptions to running backs over the last three games, so don't be surprised if we see Lacy more involved on that front in Thursday's affair, which plays up well on both sites (a bit more on DK where full points per reception are awarded).
Budget comparison: 33 percent of DK budget; 31 percent of FD Budget
Verdict: A little better play here on FD than DK because he's far from a guarantee to cross the century mark and unlock the bonus and is a bit more affordable.
Mark Fletcher ($13,200 DK; $14,700 FD), RB, Miami
Fletcher missed some time during the regular season, and we saw Girard Pringle step up in his absence. While there was some concern Girard's performance could mean he'd eat into Fletcher's workload in the CFP, that has simply not been the case. Fletcher has handled carry shares of 51 and 61 percent through the first two CFP games, with his 61 percent share versus Texas A&M representing his heaviest share of the 2025 campaign. Ole Miss grades out reasonably well as a run defense (22nd via PFF), while the secondary is far from that, but Fletcher should handle a healthy dose of carries and has already run for 90 and 172 yards in the previous two CFP foes, who grade out similarly.
Budget comparison: 26.4 percent DK budget; 24.5 percent FD budget
Verdict: The difference between the budget consumption here is 1.9 percent versus two percent for Lacy, so it's slightly more favorable than Lacy on the FD budget side. That said, Fletcher has a decent chance to cross the century mark on the ground, and he's put up 20.2 and 18.5 without finding paydirt. Certainly a viable option on both sites.
Malachi Toney ($12,300 DK; $16,500 FD), WR, Miami
The wide receiver spot is one that doesn't typically get utilized in the captaincy spot too often, but Toney is one of those players who provides explosive upside at the wideout spot, evidenced by his four games with 32.7 or more DK points and 26.2 FD points. Toney's first two playoff contests haven't resulted in big showings, but he's still amassed 11 combined targets, and this is a game that should feature more offense than either of the last two. Toney is seemingly still Beck's go-to option out wide, sporting a 27.9 percent target share, and you can save up some money to spend elsewhere if you take a chance.
Budget comparison: 24.6 percent of DK budget; 27.5 percent of FD budget
Verdict: Toney may only be a viable play on DraftKings as that's the spot where you can actually save enough at the position for it to warrant a selection, though it would seemingly make him a less popular avenue on FanDuel if you want to go contrarian.
De'Zhaun Stribling, ($10,200 DK; $11,700 FD)
Stribling saw fewer targets than Harrison Wallace last time out, and the result is Wallace topping him in salary on both sites. That said, Stribling, in my eyes, has really come on as the biggest touchdown threat for the Rebels, compiling four receiving touchdowns over the last four games. He did come up empty last time out in terms of touchdowns, but he still put up seven grabs for 122 yards versus Georgia. It marked the first time he crossed the century mark in receiving this season, so I wouldn't count on that again, but he's a big-play threat (10.6 YPT), and wide receivers have scored reasonably well recently, averaging 33.5 DK points over the last four games.
Budget comparison: 20.4 percent DK budget; 19.5 percent FD budget
Verdict: Stribling should be usable in the captain spot on either site if you are looking for an affordable upside play to fit more of the stars in your lineup on both squads.
Utility Plays
Trinidad Chambliss ($11,000 DK; $13,200 FD), Ole Miss
Chambliss' utility price lines up with the captain prices of some of the others on this slate, and for good reason. The signal-caller's floor is arguably north of 20 fantasy points, and his ceiling of over 30 is more achievable than most, given his abilities as both a runner and passer. That said, Miami's defense is stout enough that I worry he'll have trouble surpassing the bonus markers on DraftKings, and the budget ramifications are too high to get a lot of the other star players on board. However, he's probably a must-play in general, whether or not you opt to utilize him as your captain, and this spot makes him a much more affordable inclusion.
Budget comparison: 22 percent on both sites
Verdict: Usable in the captain slot as well if you are comfortable bypassing more of the star players. Likely a must-use in Utility if not in the captain spot. I'll likely use Chambliss more here.
Carson Beck ($10,400 DK; $10,600 FD), Miami
Beck doesn't possess the same level of dual-threat ability we see from Chambliss, and thus, his ceiling is significantly capped in comparison. Beck has thrown for a combined 241 yards in his first two CFP performances, but Ole Miss' secondary grades out 70th in the country, well below that of either Texas A&M (24th) or Ohio State (12th). Bekc should have a better performance as a result and should be in play on both sites. That said, Ole Miss has allowed only two QBs to break the 300-yard passing barrier. Beck himself has only passed that mark twice this season, so I wouldn't count on it. Even so, he's capable of tossing 3-4 touchdown passes if the score runs up.
Budget comparison: 20.8 percent DK; 17.7 percent FD
Verdict: Probably a better option on FanDuel than DraftKings here, costing less with minimal chances of hitting the DK bonuses to warrant the additional price tag.
CJ Daniels ($6,200 DK; $7,000 FD), Miami
Daniels missed some time down the stretch due to a leg injury, sitting out Weeks 10-12 because of it. He returned in full in Week 14 and reeled in a touchdown and saw six targets last time out versus Ohio State. Daniels also boasts the best touchdown-to-target ratio on the team, notching seven on 54, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per target. In a game where offense could be somewhat muted with two top-notch teams going at it, I'll take a chance on a guy who arguably stands the best chance to hit paydirt among wideouts or tight ends.
Budget comparison: 12.4 percent DK; 11.7 percent FD
Verdict: Daniels is affordably priced on both sites. He hasn't been a big volume guy in the passing attack of ate but did secure five passes last time out. The combination makes him a little better play on FanDuel, where the touchdown would play up a bit more, but he's still usable on both sites.
Deuce Alexander ($3,800 DK; $6,200 FD), Ole Miss
Despite allowing just 201.1 passing yards per game, the Hurricanes sit tied for 53rd in terms of 25-plus yard pass plays allowed with 23, albeit in 14 games. Alexander is one of those big-play threats, boasting a 12.0 ADOT. He's found his footing late in the season, claiming 11 targets over the last two games, so there is some upside to his game.
Budget comparison: 7.6 percent DK; 10.33 percent FD
Verdict: Alexander's price is certainly much more affordable on DraftKings. He's not a big candidate to hit any bonuses but could deliver a handful of sizable grabs to return value. May not be enough on the FanDuel side to consider, but he's still on the table.
Dae'Quan Wright ($4,600 DK; $4,600 FD), Ole Miss
Budget comparison: 9.2 percent DK; 7.7 percent FD
Verdict: Tight ends have been targeted early and often by the opposition of the Hurricanes, garnering 90 over 13 games this year (6.9 per game). Opposing tight ends also outproduced average output in five of 12 games during the regular season, with four of those being by 60-plus percent. This points to the possibility of Wright being involved here, and he has some decent games on the ledger, finishing with double-digit scoring in four different contests.
Budget comparison: 9.2 percent DK budget; 7.7 percent FD budget
Verdict: Wright is likely a touchdown-dependent option, as he's only hit double digits in those instances. Miami has allowed just three receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year despite increased production. Likely more a roster fill option on FD.
Lucas Carneiro, ($4,600 DK; N/A FD) Ole Miss
DraftKings includes kickers among those who can be utilized for showdown purposes, and Carneiro has been money this year for the Rebels, nailing 93.1 percent of his attempts and all 55 of his extra points. Miami sits 36th nationally, allowing a 54.8 TD percentage, but allows a field goal 22.6 percent of the time (62nd). Ole Miss sits 46th nationally in red-zone TD rate (64.5) and palys uptempo, so there could be ample opportunities for Carneiro to kick in this one.
Budget comparison: 9.2 percent DK budget
Verdict: Definitely an option to fill the bottom of a lineup spot for on DraftKings. Accurate from longer ranges for the extra points and could be worth a look.
