Duke and Florida State faced off Tuesday night in a battle of top-10 teams that featured three potential lottery picks and two potential top-five picks, in addition to a handful of upperclassmen who will be drafted this June. Here are the scouting reports for those players, with particular focus on Jayson Tatum and Jonathan Isaac, as they have not yet been featured in this space this season.
Jonathan Isaac (SF)
Of the players I have ranked as top-10 prospects for this year's draft, Isaac is the one who requires the most projection. His physical gifts are very apparent, and unlike Brandon Ingram last year, he actually stacks up to a young Kevin Durant from a physical standpoint. He is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan at the small forward position, but at 205 pounds, he obviously has a lot of work to do in the weight room. His incredibly long arms and good hands help him cause havoc on defense, but he has weak forearms and struggles with ball security when he comes down with rebounds.
He has an explosive first step, but is not necessarily sure what to do next if that first step doesn't lead to an easy layup or dunk. So far his top contributions to Florida State have been as a lob-finisher, rebounder, defensive force and transition threat, while also capably hitting some open threes.
He moves like a gazelle in transition, and there is a smoothness to his game that is rare
Duke and Florida State faced off Tuesday night in a battle of top-10 teams that featured three potential lottery picks and two potential top-five picks, in addition to a handful of upperclassmen who will be drafted this June. Here are the scouting reports for those players, with particular focus on Jayson Tatum and Jonathan Isaac, as they have not yet been featured in this space this season.
Jonathan Isaac (SF)
Of the players I have ranked as top-10 prospects for this year's draft, Isaac is the one who requires the most projection. His physical gifts are very apparent, and unlike Brandon Ingram last year, he actually stacks up to a young Kevin Durant from a physical standpoint. He is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan at the small forward position, but at 205 pounds, he obviously has a lot of work to do in the weight room. His incredibly long arms and good hands help him cause havoc on defense, but he has weak forearms and struggles with ball security when he comes down with rebounds.
He has an explosive first step, but is not necessarily sure what to do next if that first step doesn't lead to an easy layup or dunk. So far his top contributions to Florida State have been as a lob-finisher, rebounder, defensive force and transition threat, while also capably hitting some open threes.
He moves like a gazelle in transition, and there is a smoothness to his game that is rare for someone with his dimensions.
Isaac is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.1 three-pointers in 24.7 minutes per game, while shooting 51.8 percent from the field, 34.9 percent from three and 78.0 percent from the line. Those are pretty intriguing numbers from someone with his size who seems to disappear from games at times.
On one hand, he has tantalizing upside because of his size, defensive capabilities and three-point shooting. On the other hand, this is a loaded draft, and there is some bust potential with Isaac because he has such a long way to go in terms of adding size and dimensions to his offensive game. Players with his measurables and athleticism don't fall out of the lottery in any draft, but the team that takes him better be awfully confident in their ability to extract the most out of Isaac, as there will be potential All-Stars who come off the board after him.
Jayson Tatum (SF)
Tatum is one of the three best natural scorers in this draft class (the other two being Markelle Fultz and Malik Monk), and of those three he is the only one who is taller than 6-foot-4. He plays with extreme confidence, which is good, but every time I watch him I wonder how well he will fit into a modern NBA offense that does not lend itself to a heavy dose of isolation plays.
Here is what his three-point stroke looks like:
It is pretty smooth and there are not a lot of moving parts, unlike with Josh Jackson of Kansas. It is also very much a rhythm shot, and it is unclear what kind of long-range shooter he will be from NBA range off the dribble or on spot-ups where he does not get to step into the shot. He is shooting 31.4 percent from behind the arc (on 35 attempts), so for now Isaac has the edge there, but Tatum is the better free-throw shooter (85.7 percent) and is very skilled at getting to the line.
Where he excels is in one-on-one situations in the halfcourt.
He even has some Blake Griffin-esque moves from 12-to-15 feet that he didn't get to showcase in this contest, and he has a very solid mid-range game in general.
His game may not be perfectly suited for a modern NBA offense, but he is doing a lot on the defensive end for the Blue Devils. Tatum is averaging 2.1 steals and 1.7 blocks in 30.3 minutes per game, which suggests he could be a major asset on that end of the court in the NBA.
Other than his iso-heavy style of play and potential inability to make his teammates better, the other concern I have is that I think he's a power forward in the NBA, but may not be deployed as such. He has that kind of strength, and defensively it seems like it would be a better fit than asking him to move laterally so much against quicker wings. It's basically the same reasoning for why Harrison Barnes and Aaron Gordon are better fits at the four, yet like I fear will be the case with Tatum, that has not transpired on a full-time basis with those two. It won't doom him if he has to play the three for his first handful of years in the league, it's just something I'm intrigued to follow as the draft process heats up, because it would be excellent to see an NBA team take him as a power forward and for him to embrace that role.
Tatum will be a top-six pick, as he's just too talented of a scorer not to be. He may even average 28 points per game some day and figures to make a handful of All-Star teams. Tatum will be compared to Josh Jackson quite a bit over the next couple years because they play essentially the same position, and I prefer Jackson's playmaking ability and think he will be a similarly gifted scorer some day. He also has the physical skills to be a more versatile defender than Tatum.
Harry Giles (PF)
Giles did not play much, and while he did not have the same bounce as he did before his latest knee injury, it's easy to see why a fully recovered Giles would still be in the mix to go in the top-10 in this year's draft. He should continue to climb up draft boards in the coming months if he stays healthy.
Luke Kennard (SG)
It's very obvious how much time Kennard has put into improving every facet of his game. He has such a wide-array of scoring moves in the halfcourt, and while he does not have the athleticism of Grayson Allen, he is a noticeably better all-around player. Kennard is always quick to make the right play, rarely ever finding himself in a drawn out isolation situation. He still projects to come off the board in the back half of the first round.
Grayson Allen (SG)
Allen had flashes of dominance in this one, though he was a little loose with the handle at times. The tripping saga should be enough for him to fall out of the first round. He has the skills to be a useful rotation player if he had excellent intangibles, and that just doesn't seem to be the case.
Terance Mann (SG)
The entire time I was watching this game, I kept wondering, "Who is number 14 on Florida State?" Well, that would be Mann, a sophomore who was a four-star recruit and roughly the 100th-best prospect in his recruiting class. He was the most impressive player in this game, showcasing excellent athleticism and finishing ability, while also looking like a great teammate with good intangibles. The reason he is not projected to play in the NBA is because he can't shoot from beyond the arc. On just 22 attempts over 51 games, he is shooting 27.3 percent from three-point range. Still, this is a guy who could be a very valuable defensive-minded two guard who makes winning plays if he can find a way to just become a mediocre three-point shooter.
Top 10 Prospects
1. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last week: 1)
2. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last week: 2)
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last week: 3)
4. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last week: 5)
5. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last week: 7)
6. Dennis Smith, PG, NC State (Last week: 8)
7. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last week: 4)
8. TJ Leaf, PF, UCLA (Last week: 9)
9. Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky (Last week: 10)
10. De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky (Last week: NR)
