This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DraftKings' Wednesday contests feature seven games, and they've got a plethora of marquee-named teams suiting up. We've got another $2,000 first-place prize at stake on what should be a highly-watchable evening of hoops.
We're not going to be able to fade Arizona-Alabama. It comes with a massive 173.5 point total, the highest I can remember seeing in a long time, and for certain the highest while I've been writing this season. Three other games come with totals of 154.5 or greater, so it's going to be a high-scoring night for both fantasy and real life.
Top Players
Joel Soriano, F, St. John's ($9,200)
Soriano comes at a $1,100 discount to Kyle Filipowski, and seems to offer the same potential as a safe-floor, high-ceiling play. He's posted three straight double-doubles and has six in 10 games overall. The Red Storm are expected to flirt with 80 points, and he seems likely to have a size advantage here. He goes 6-foot-11, 255 pounds, and Xavier's two bigs rarely play together simulatneously, and neither averages 20 minutes.
Donovan Clingan, F, Connecticut ($7,800)
Arizona's Keshad Johnson is in a great spot Wednesday, and I'm struggling to come up with a good reason to not stack that game at the high end. The best I can come up with is that it'll be so popular, if by chance the two sides combine for just 155 points instead of 174, maybe they don't return elite value. Take a piece on each side and differentiate, even if that piece is Johnson. Clingan was my landing spot for ceiling, as he's got a terrific 26.8 percent usage rate over his last five, and we've seen 40+ DKP outings from him, giving him a shot to return better than 5x. He'll always have a size advantage, it's just a question on minutes and need in the loaded Huskies attack. Harrison Ingram would be my pivot if looking for a safer floor option to fade Johnson. Both UNC and UConn have a shot to score 80 Wednesday.
Middle Tier
Javian McCollum, G, Oklahoma ($6,400)
McCollum has shown a 22.75 DKP floor and 39.75 DKP ceiling across his last five. That floor is a touch low for this price, but the ceiling is elite. There are a couple of ways to attack the Tar Heels, as they've struggled mightily on the offensive glass of late, but Oklahoma doesn't have attractive bigs at favorable prices. The other avenue is to exploit their undersized backcourt, where R.J. Davis has struggled his entire career to keep players in front of him. McCollum too is undersized, but he's the team's leading scorer and has the highest usage. In a game we expect to go up and down and the Sooners can score 75+ points, the price here feels more than fair.
Pelle Larsson, G, Arizona ($5,400)
Caleb Love is playing at an extremely high level, and this game certainly matches his style of play, so he makes a ton of sense at the top. As a UNC fan (his former school), for as much as I love him as a player, I don't trust him. Larsson may be a bit of a lazy pick here, as he's simply the cheapest starter on a team that could score 90 points. He seems to be trending upward, however, playing 65 minutes over the last two, scoring in double-digits in five straight and handing out 16 assists in his last three. The pace here should allow all of those benchmarks to be met, seemingly elevating his floor.
Bargain Options
Adam Miller, G, Arizona State ($4,800)
Miller was used mightily in his Sun Devil debut, and the price hasn't caught up to what seems like a large opportunity. This game has the lowest total on the slate, and hopefully will be ignored as a result. Miller hoisted nine shots in his debut while playing 31 minutes. While Northwestern plays about as slow as possible, they don't defend the 3-point shot well, ranking 184th against it, and seven of Miller's shots came from downtown. He's been a volume shooter at previous stops and doesn't need much peripherally to return at this price.
Mason Miller, F, Creighton ($4,300)
There are plenty of guards worth taking a flier on at these low prices, but the frontcourts didn't look as ripe for picking. Miller is undersized at just 190 pounds, which won't do much favors against Villanova's brute, but he's been priced as high as $5,500 prior to missing two games to illness. His minutes have ticked up in each game back, and he's averaged 11.3 points and 4.0 rebounds across 25.3 minutes in his last three. His floor in that stretch has been 12.75 DKP, which isn't great, but a 3x return works for the number and frees salary, which is all we can ask.
