This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
11 games headline the DraftKings slate Tuesday, with a $5k top prize in the $15 Pull Up Jumper. As usual, let's take a look at the day's implied totals before jumping into plays for each salary tier.
Top Players
Mark Williams, F, Duke ($8,700 DK)
The Blue Devils offer many intriguing options, but I'm going with Mark Williams simply because of the matchup. Duke is currently blocking shots at the second-highest rate in the ACC through conference play this season, while Clemson's offense is having its shots blocked at the worst rate in the ACC. The Blue Devils are loaded, but Mark Williams is by far their best shot-blocker, currently with the fifth-best shot-blocking rate in the country. It's also important to note that Mark Williams has been more assertive on offense lately, scoring 15-plus points in each of the last three contests. Since recording a donut in the conference opener against Virginia Tech back on Dec. 22, Williams has scored in double figures in all but one ACC contest. Based on today's matchup, I'm expecting that trend to continue.
Jabari Smith, F, Auburn ($7,000 DK)
Missouri has the second-worst defense in the SEC, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, so the Tigers are projected to put up almost 80 points today. Jabari Smith should have a significant stake in the action, as he's taking 27 percent of his team's shots when on the court this season, the highest rate on the team. Smith has scored in double figures in 16 consecutive games, and 17-of-19 total games this season. He's also scored 20-plus points on several occasions, demonstrating a high ceiling, beyond what his current salary might suggest. Smith has a wide skill set, posting top-16 rankings in defensive rebounding rate, shot-blocking rate and three-point field-goal percentage among all SEC players during conference play. Assuming Auburn lives up to its No. 1 ranking, Jabari Smith shouldn't have an issue providing value at today's salary.
Middle Tier
Matthew Mayer, G/F, Baylor ($6,900 DK)
Since conference play started, Kansas State is unequivocally the worst rebounding team in the Big 12. The Wildcats have the worst rebounding rates in the Big 12 on both sides of the court, and now they're about to face a Baylor team that's ranked top-three in the Big 12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Additionally, Baylor also has the seventh-best overall offensive rebounding rate in the country, so this is certainly a significant advantage. Matthew Mayer currently has the highest defensive rebounding rate among Baylor's starters, certainly someone who benefits in this matchup. Additionally, Mayer is also taking 26 percent of his team's shots when on the court this season, the highest rate on the team. Mayer has been on a hot streak lately, scoring 48 total points in his last three games, including a season-high 20 points against West Virginia on Jan. 18. Considering the matchup, there's no reason to think Mayer's recent string of production won't continue.
Sahvir Wheeler, G, Kentucky ($6,600 DK)
Kentucky is teeing off against the third-worst defense in the SEC, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, so you'll also want to consider the Wildcats when filling out your lineup. Sahvir Wheeler, the Wildcats' starting point guard, recently returned to action after missing a couple of games due to a neck injury. Now that he's healthy, Wheeler should play a major role in this game, as he's using 23.5 percent of his team's possessions when on the court this season, the highest rate on the team. Wheeler has scored in double figures in all three games since returning from injury, giving us a solid baseline for today's contest, especially considering two of Kentucky's last three opponents were Auburn and Tennessee. Wheeler is also a phenomenal passer, boasting the third-highest assist rate in the SEC during conference play. This is nothing new, however, as Wheeler previously finished with the third-highest assist rate in the SEC last season when he was with Georgia. Between his scoring and passing, Wheeler is sure to provide a steady stream of fantasy points today.
Value Plays
Caleb Daniels, G, Villanova ($4,100 DK)
Villanova currently boasts the sixth-best offense in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, and they're going against a DePaul team that has the second-worst defense in the Big East. As the Wildcats' unofficial sixth man, Caleb Daniels might see extra opportunities in this contest, assuming the game opens up as the Wildcats play up to expectations and build a comfortable lead. Daniels also benefits because DePaul has had the worst three-point defense in the Big East since conference season started, allowing opponents to make a whopping 40 percent of three-point attempts. Villanova will likely keep that trend going for DePaul, as the former is loaded with a trio of elite shooters, with Caleb Daniels (.385) along with Collin Gillespie (.416) and Justin Moore (.389), all capable of having big shooting nights. All in all, Daniels offers a solid floor at a great value.
Noah Gurley, F, Alabama ($3,100 DK)
Georgia's defense is not only the worst on the slate, but it's one of the worst in the entire country, ranking in the bottom 15 percent of all Division I teams in terms of KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Alabama, on the other hand, has the tenth-best offensive attack in the country, per KenPom, so it's hardly surprising that Alabama is projected to score almost 90 points in today's contest. Georgia's defense is particularly bad in the paint, allowing opponents to make 55 percent of two-point attempts, a rate that falls in the bottom 10 percent of the country. Noah Gurley stands to benefit in this matchup because he currently has the best two-point field goal percentage among Alabama's starters. Gurley came off the bench for most of the season, but was recently inserted into the starting lineup and has started each of the last three games. Gurley has elevated his game since conference season started, averaging almost 18 fantasy points (DK) in six conference games, excluding one particular game against Florida on Jan. 5 when Gurley somehow fouled out in just six minutes of action. Gurley was plagued by foul trouble early in the season but has kept it under control in recent games. In any event, assuming he doesn't get into foul trouble, Gurley shouldn't have too much trouble generating value, especially at such an extremely low salary. it's also worth mentioning that the status of frontcourt teammate Juwan Gary continues to be uncertain as he deals with a facial contusion.
