This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Overview
The March 3 college hoops slate once again features 10 matchups, although this time we don't have any exclusive games. DraftKings and FanDuel share the exact same slate.
The three games I'm circling tonight are: Wake Forest at North Carolina, Marquette at DePaul, and Michigan State at Penn State. All three of these games have over/under totals above 144, so they are naturally our primary DFS candidates. When looking at specific teams, I'm mostly targeting North Carolina, Marquette, and Syracuse. All three of these teams are expected to score 74-plus points tonight so they are great starting points when filling out your roster.
Top Players
Luka Garza, F, Iowa ($9,600 DK, $9,000 FD)
Garza is seemingly unstoppable. I'm reluctant to pass on Garza but I should note that tonight's matchup is somewhat challenging. Purdue's defense is ranked 15th in the country in terms of defensive efficiency and the Boilermakers also have the second-best offensive rebounding rate in Big Ten games this season. In fact, Garza only had one single rebound when these two teams last met back on Feb. 5 at Mackey Arena. I'm expecting Garza will play better this time around, but I'm not confident that he'll clear the high bar that his price tag requires. I'm passing in this spot but wouldn't be surprised if Garza does enough to justify his cost.
Markus Howard, G, Marquette ($9,400 DK, $8,500 FD)
Howard has been on fire lately, scoring 30-plus points in each of the past three games. Tonight's matchup doesn't really concern me. DePaul's defense isn't atrocious by any means but it isn't nearly as tough as the Seton Hall defense that Howard recently had to deal with on this past Saturday. Howard has a hefty price tag, but ultimately I think his hot streak will continue. He'll be worth it when it's all said and done.
Xavier Tillman, F, Michigan State ($8,700 DK, $8,700 FD)
Tillman is coming off one of his best games of the season, and I don't see him slowing down. Penn State is currently ranked 10th in the Big Ten in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding efficiency so I'm expecting Tillman will benefit here. Overall, this isn't an easy matchup for Michigan State, but I still think Tillman will put up numbers. I'm strongly considering Tillman.
Paul Reed, F, DePaul ($8,600 DK, $8,700 FD)
Reed is currently listed as questionable after missing DePaul's most recent game this past Saturday. I would normally say that Reed is a great option tonight because Marquette's defense hasn't been great since conference season started. The problem, of course, is that Reed's injury situation isn't clear and there's a major risk of him playing fewer minutes or not being effective. Reed is a hard pass due to the injury situation.
Value Plays
CJ Fredrick, G, Iowa ($5,200 DK, $4,600 FD)
Fredrick recently returned from an injury and immediately resumed a standard workload, as he logged 32 minutes in Iowa's game on this past Saturday. Fredrick is averaging almost 20 fantasy points per game this season, so he's a regular contributor when healthy. His stock appears to be lower due to the recent injury but all signs are pointing upward based on the performance in his last game.
Myles Dread, G, Penn State ($5,300 DK, $4,700 FD)
Dread was inserted into the starting lineup near the beginning of February and has been playing better ever since. He's scored 18-plus fantasy points in six of the past seven games and even scored 32 fantasy points in one of them. The matchup isn't easy but I still think Dread has a chance at being a terrific value play.
Theo John, F, Marquette ($5,200 DK, $4,500 FD)
John is an outstanding rebounder and shot blocker. He might not score many points, but he's constantly making plays whenever he's on the court. DePaul has the worst offense in the Big East and is generally prone to having its shots blocked, so John stands to benefit from this matchup.
Jalen Coleman-Lands, G, DePaul ($5,200 DK, $4,600 FD)
This is a case of buying a stock while it's low. Coleman-Lands is coming off one of his least productive games of the season and, generally speaking, hasn't been great over the past three games. That being said, Coleman-Lands usually plays over 30 minutes every game and takes 22.6 percent of his team's shots when he's on the court. This could be a great opportunity for a bounce-back performance.
Rocket Watts Jr., G, Michigan State ($4,400 DK, $4,700 FD)
Watts fell off the radar in the middle of the season but has recently seen a significant increase in playing time. He's played 25-plus minutes in four of the past five games and even scored 21 points in two of those games. Watts has been a boom-or-bust player throughout the season, but it appears his role on the team is trending upward.
Quincy Guerrier, F, Syracuse ($5,200 DK, $4,700 FD)
The last time I suggested Guerrier (back on Feb. 11), he posted 16 points and 10 rebounds in a performance that gave us 34-plus fantasy points. That's a lot to ask for this time around, but I'm going back to the well nonetheless. Guerrier is an excellent rebounder and could benefit from this matchup because Boston College is one of the worst rebounding teams in the ACC. My only concern with Syracuse's sixth man is that he tends to find himself in foul trouble, but I'm less concerned about that here because the Eagles don't usually draw many fouls. All in all, Guerrier has a chance to have a big night -- assuming he can stay on the court.
Game to Target
Wake Forest at North Carolina (-8), o/u 151, 7pm ET
Both teams like to run. Neither team plays great defense. Exactly what we want in a matchup when it comes to DFS.
Starting with the road team, Olivier Sarr ($7,800 DK, $6,500 FD) has the highest offensive efficiency rating on the team (per KenPom) and leads the team in rebounds. A strong combination. Starting senior point guard Brandon Childress ($7,500 DK, $6,100 FD) plays the most minutes on the team and has the seventh highest assist rate in ACC games this season. Chaundee Brown ($6,500 DK, $5,700 FD) takes 24.3 percent of his team's shots when he's on the court -- the highest rate on the team. Andrien White ($5,100 DK, $4,600 FD) is another significant contributor and is the team's best three-point shooter. Jahcobi Neath ($4,700 DK, $4000 FD) has seen a significant increase in playing time lately and could provide immense value if that trend continues. The same goes for Isaiah Mucius ($4,500 DK, $4,000 FD).
For the Tar Heels, every college hoops fan already knows all about Cole Anthony ($8,400 DK, $7,700 FD). Garrison Brooks ($8,200 DK, $7,400 FD) has been scorching hot lately. He leads the team in minutes and rebounding. Armando Bacot ($6,400 DK, $5,600 FD) has been dealing with an injury and is questionable entering tonight's game. Leaky Black ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD) averages 30 minutes per game but is more of a defensive specialist. Brandon Robinson ($5,700 DK, $4,700 FD) has the highest offensive efficiency rating on the team but sees inconsistent playing time. Christian Keeling ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) has scored 13-plus fantasy points in the last eight games. Not a high bar to clear, but it's a firm floor for a value option.
Game to Fade
Maryland at Rutgers (-1.5), o/u 131.5, 7pm ET
I was initially planning on breaking down the Cincinnati-USF game in this section because it has the lowest over/under total on the board, but I decided against it. Ultimately, I believe there's more value in breaking down the Maryland-Rutgers matchup because of key players that are involved. This Big Ten battle might not have many points scored, but there are still a couple notable players that could pay off if the ball bounces the right way.
For the road team, Jalen Smith ($8,500 DK, $8,400 FD) is virtually matchup-proof thanks to his elite skill set. Starting senior point guard Anthony Cowan Jr. ($7,700 DK, $7,000FD) leads the team in minutes and possessions used. Cowan is the other key Terrapin that should be considered given his high ceiling. Aaron Wiggins ($5,600 DK, $4,800 FD) comes off the bench these days but plays the third-most minutes on the team while having the third-highest usage rate. Eric Ayala ($5,000 DK, $4,600 FD) and Darryl Morsell ($5,500 DK, $4,800 FD) are interesting value options as two starting players that have usage rates above 18 percent.
For the Scarlet Knights, Ron Harper ($6,100 DK, $5,600 FD) leads the team in minutes played and takes the most shots among the starters. Geo Baker ($5,900 DK, $5,300 FD) recently returned to the starting rotation and has played 30-plus minutes in each of the past four games. Myles Johnson ($5,700 DK, $5,400 FD) leads the team in rebounding and blocks. Akwasi Yeboah ($5,700 DK, $5,300 FD) takes 21.2 percent of him team's shots when on the court but doesn't play as many minutes compared to other starters. Jacob Young ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD) has the highest usage rate on the team but rarely plays more than 25 minutes in a game. Young has the potential to make or break your roster and I'm leaning toward the latter given the strength of the opposition.
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