This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DraftKings is offering a rare three-window slate Thursday in accordance with the start of postseason play at the mid-major level. The early slate features still just one contest with Illinois State and Northern Iowa tipping off the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at 1:00 p.m. EST. There's then a large time gap before the nine-game main slate opens at 7:00 p.m. EST – six of which start after 9:00 p.m. EST and make up our night-time frame.
This wide window of start times doesn't change the discouraging fact that only two of these eight of the 10 totals fall below 135. Therefore, it's going to be another instance where we lean into a pair of limited upper-tier options mixed with some late-night fliers.
Top Tier
Zach Edey, F, Purdue ($11,500)
If there was ever a time to heavily invest in a big-ticket item like Edey, it would be here. The 16-12 Badgers have shown uncharacteristic flaws in their fundamentals down low. Nothing represents this better than the team's 316th-ranked rebound rate (47.0). That feels like a true recipe for disaster against a post monster like Edey, who is averaging a nation-leading 12.9 rebounds to go along with 22.3 points per game. It feels almost impossible that Edey won't come away with 45+ DKP, which has been his norm for much of the season. A matchup this favorable is also enough to overcome the stink of this game's paltry over/under of 127.
Terrence Shannon, F, Illinois ($8,000)
Shannon makes our lineup as likely the best value pick in this matchup between Illinois and Michigan, which is projected to finish with 144.5 combined points. The 6-foot-6 senior missed back-to-back games with a concussion before returning to the starting lineup in Sunday's loss to Ohio State. As a result, Shannon's DFS salary has been depressed slightly despite being the Fighting Illini's leading scorer this season with 17.1 points per game. In fact, he's $700 cheaper than Illinois wing Matthew Mayer, who practiced Wednesday for the first time after missing Monday's and Tuesday's sessions with "caffeine poisoning," according to Derek Piper of Rivals.com. As a result, Shannon could be asked to carry an even heavier load for Illinois' offense. This could be amplified even further if third-leading scorer Jayden Epps misses Thursday's contest after he suffered a concussion of his own during Tuesday's practice.
Middle Tier
Pharrel Payne, F, Minnesota ($5,900)
Payne has been a very solid DFS player as of late, putting up at least 18.5 DKP in all but one of the past seven games. His production over that stretch is skewed thanks to three consecutive starts while starting four consecutive games while Dawson Garcia was sidelined with an ankle injury. Payne did record a painful zero-point, three-rebound performance off the bench against Illinois on Feb. 20, but he followed this up by averaging 13.5 points and 6.5 rebounds while playing 19.5 minutes per game over the last two outings. He could also be in line for a better-than-expected stat line while going against a Rutgers squad that hasn't been the same defensive juggernaut since losing Mawot Mag to a torn ACL on Feb. 7.
Jamal Bey, G, Washington ($5,400)
Bey has been rather productive, albeit inefficient, over the last seven games, averaging 9.7 points and 4.1 boards while playing 34.7 minutes per game. The fifth-year senior started five of these contests with Noah Williams and P.J. Fuller in and out of the lineup due to a knee injury and personal reasons, respectfully. Bey has also scored in double figures during three of those five starts, including a season-best 21-point performance during Sunday's loss at Stanford. Bey has shot 35.5 percent from the field this season. But, he's still sure to benefit from a significant increase in scoring chances if either one or both of Williams/Fuller remain out versus Washington State.
Bargain Tier
Reese Dixon-Waters, G, USC ($5,000)
Dixon-Waters is probably the Trojans' most consistent role player. The 6-foot-5 sophomore has also been even more productive since returning from a four-game absence due to a foot injury, as he's put up 12.0 points and 4.0 rebounds while playing an average of 26.3 minutes over the last three contests. What's more, USC is above average in adjusted tempo this season at 68.4, and this should only be exacerbated while facing No. 8 Arizona, which ranks seventh in adjusted tempo at 72.6, per KenPom. The Wildcats did put it on the Trojans in an 81-66 drubbing Jan. 19. However, Thursday's rematch has a spread of just one point and is projected to be even higher scoring at 155.0 combined points. Dixon-Waters falls right into the category of role players who could see increased usage in this fast-paced nightcap.
Joey Baker, F, Michigan ($4,000)
Baker is the ultimate flier whose entire value is dependent on whether starting three-point ace Jett Howard suits up after missing back-to-back games with an ankle injury. The senior reserve has attempted 16 three-pointers while starting over the past two contests. Illinois hasn't been that effective at defending the three-point line during Big Ten play, allowing conference opponents to convert 35.3 percent of attempts from beyond the arc, per KenPom. Therefore, even though Baker has come through with just 15 total points in his two starts, his upside is too good to pass up should Howard continue to sit out.
