This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Eleven games headline the DraftKings slate Thursday, with a $2k top prize in the $12 Heating Up contest. Let's take a look at today's implied totals, with Arizona leading the way this time. The Michigan-Iowa game is also worth mentioning, possibly the highest-scoring game of the day once the dust finally settles.
Top Players
Hunter Dickinson, F, Michigan ($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
This pick is all about the matchup. Iowa has struggled to rebound this season, particularly on the defensive end, recording the worst defensive rebounding rate among Big Ten teams during conference play. Michigan, meanwhile, has been arguably the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, posting the best defensive rebounding rate and second-best offensive rebounding rate in the conference. Hunter Dickinson is mostly responsible for these impressive numbers, as he leads the team in rebounding by a wide margin. Dickinson also leads the team in scoring and has taken 32 percent of his team's shots when on the court since conference season started, the second-highest percentage among all Big Ten players. Dickinson yielded sub-par results in his previous game against Ohio State, although prior to that he had put up 34-plus fantasy points (DK) in five straight games. Based on today's matchup, I'm expecting Dickinson to start a new streak as part of a strong bounce-back performance.
Azuolas Tubelis, F, Arizona ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Arizona's offensive attack is ranked number six in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, and it's taking on an Oregon State defense that's ranked No. 310 in the country, by far the worst defense in the Pac-12 and the overall worst on the slate. Oregon State is particularly atrocious at stopping opponents inside the arc, as the Beavers are allowing Pac-12 opponents to make almost 58 percent of two-point attempts, the worst percentage allowed in the conference. This is perfect for Arizona because the Wildcats are making over 56 percent of their two-point attempts against Pac-12 opponents, the highest percentage in the conference. Additionally, Oregon State's defense also has the worst rebounding rate in the conference, while Arizona has the best offensive rebounding rate against Pac-12 opponents during conference play. Given these two gigantic matchup advantages, either Azuolas Tubelis or Christian Koloko are pivotal picks for today's slate.
Middle Tier
Josh Carlton, F, Houston ($6,800 DK, $6,300 FD)
Another lopsided matchup. Since conference season started, Houston has had the best offensive rebounding rate against AAC opponents, while UCF has logged the second-worst defensive rebounding rate in the conference. Similarly, Houston is making almost 55 percent of its two-point attempts, the highest percentage in the AAC, while UCF's defense is allowing opponents to make over 50 percent of two-point attempts, the third-worst percentage allowed in the conference. Josh Carlton shouldn't have much trouble taking advantage of UCF's weaknesses, as Carlton boasts the highest offensive rebounding rate among all AAC players while also making over 62 percent of his two-point attempts, the second-highest percentage made in the conference. I don't want to short-change Carlton, so I should also note that he also has the second-best offensive efficiency rating among all AAC players as well as the second-best block rate in the conference. Houston already faced UCF back on Jan. 29, and Carlton scored 13 points while collecting 15 rebounds. I like his chances for another big game in the rematch against UCF.
Chevez Goodwin, F, USC ($6,000 DK)
Washington has been one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, recording the seventh-worst defensive rebounding rate among all D1 teams. Chevez Goodwin leads USC in offensive rebounding and has the ninth-best offensive rebounding rate among all Pac-12 players during conference play, so he should greatly benefit from this matchup. Chevez Goodwin also has the highest usage rate on the team, so he'll play assertive as long as he's on the court, even if star forward Isaiah Mobley returns to action. The latest reports indicate that Mobley might return to the lineup after missing the previous two games due to injury, although Goodwin was a significant contributor even before Mobley's injury, so this pick isn't necessarily contingent upon Mobley's status. Either way, Goodwin should have a productive game against a favorable opponent.
Value Plays
Jalen Terry, G, DePaul ($5,500 DK, $5,300 FD)
Jalen Terry has improved his production over the last month, scoring in double figures in seven of his last nine games, including a 28-point performance against Seton Hall on Jan. 13. Since conference season started, Terry has played over 83 percent of his team's minutes, the tenth-highest percentage among all Big East players, while also using 20 percent of his team's possessions when on the court. Terry has put up 20-plus fantasy points (DK) in four straight games, giving us a solid floor to work with. Terry scored a team-high 12 points on the road back on Jan. 22 when DePaul played Creighton in their first encounter of the season. Terry had 24 fantasy points in that game, so I like his chances at extending his fantasy scoring streak to five straight games after today.
Jordan Bohannon, G, Iowa ($5,400 DK, $5,200 FD)
Iowa is projected to score nearly 80 points, so the Hawkeyes are an intriguing option on today's slate. If you're looking for a value play, I'd submit Jordan Bohannon, who's scored 40 total points in his last two games, including a 30-point performance at Maryland back on Feb. 10. Bohannon currently has the 86th highest offensive efficiency rating in the country among all players, per KenPom, so he always has the potential for a high-scoring game. Bohannon is known as an elite shooter, although this season the ball hasn't fallen through the hoop quite as often as in the past. Assuming we can attribute this partially to luck, it wouldn't be surprising if Bohannon heats up down the stretch.
