This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Thursday is a bit of a light slate filled with mid-major teams. DraftKings is offer a $2k top prize in its $10 Big Jam, while FanDuel is offering just $100 in its biggest GPP, the $5.55 All-American. Let's take a look at team implied totals before jumping into some top plays from each salary tier.
Top Players
Paolo Banchero, F, Duke ($9,500)
Yes, this is the second time this week I've gone to this well, but it can't be helped when the Blue Devils are basically playing exhibition games leading into the conference season. In any event, Duke is projected to score the most points tonight, so you essentially have your pick of starting Blue Devils. Appalachian State isn't awful on defense overall, although it's worth pointing out that the Mountaineers are allowing opponents to make 59 percent of attempted two-point field goals, the tenth-highest rate in the country. For this reason, I'm targeting any of Duke's frontcourt players, namely Wendell Moore, Paolo Banchero or Mark Williams, as they're all the top leaders on the team in terms of most attempted two-pointers.
De'Monte Buckingham, G, UNCG ($7,400)
The Spartans aren't the best scoring team, but they sure know how to rebound, ranking top-50 in the country in terms of both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. This is particularly noteworthy considering UMBC is easily the worst rebounding team on the slate in terms of team rebound rates. Given this matchup, I'm targeting De'Monte Buckingham because he leads the team in points and rebounds while also playing the most minutes and taking the most shots. UNC Greensboro might not score enough points to win the game, but Buckingham should at least do his part with scoring and collecting rebounds, making him a strong DFS candidate with a high floor and decent upside.
Middle Tier
Sam Griffin, G, Tulsa ($6,400)
Alcorn State hasn't been great this season no matter anyway you look at them. And while the defense is weak, ranked No. 261 in the country per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, it's even more noticeable in the paint. As a team, Alcorn State is allowing opponents to make 59.6 percent of attempted two-point shots, the fourth-highest rate in the country. Based on the matchup, Sam Griffin should be able to take advantage, as he's taken the second-most two shots on the team, one attempt behind Jeriah Horne. Griffin has been heating up lately, averaging 14.5 points in his last five contests while playing 30-plus minutes in each game.
Jaiden Delaire, F, Stanford ($6,100)
Stanford is going against one of the weaker teams on the slate, a Dartmouth squad that currently ranks No. 218 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The most notable matchup advantage appears to be on the glass, where the Cardinal have shown to be the superior rebounding team this season. With this matchup advantage in mind, I like Delaire because of his rebounding abilities. Delaire is also arguably coming off his best game of the season, scoring 20 points in a home victory against Oregon.
Value Plays
B.J. Maxwell, G/F, IUPUI ($5,300)
Maxwell is an exceptional scorer, having previously recorded the highest offensive efficiency rating among all Southland players during conference season back in 2019 when he was with Abilene Christian, Maxwell's last full college basketball season. He's struggling shooting from behind the arc this season, but in 2019 he made 44 percent of his three-point attempts, suggesting perhaps he's just had bad luck with shooting this season. In spite of his shooting struggles, Maxwell still easily leads the team in scoring in addition to rebounding. It remains to be seen how many points IUPUI will eventually score tonight, but Maxwell will surely play a key role in the scoring total, making today's salary an incredible deal.
Joey Baker, F, Duke ($4,500)
As Duke's unofficial sixth man, Baker is coming off his best game of the season in a blowout win over lowly South Carolina State. Duke has a similar matchup today against another soft opponent, so I'm thinking Baker might have one more game to shine before Duke enters conference season. While he may not be as heralded as several of the starters, Baker can hold his own when it comes to scoring, as he currently has the third-highest offensive efficiency rating on the team while recording the highest three-point percentage. This pick is a little more of a gamble, but there's a strong possibility of a payoff assuming Duke wins in another blow as expected.
