This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Three slates, 34 games, 68 teams. It's fair to say we've got a loaded Saturday of college hoops. Let's dive in and look at each contest.
Main Slate
As is customary, Saturday kicks off with the largest GPP tournament as $10,000 in total prizes are up for grabs amongst 784 managers with $2,000 to the winner. We tip at 12 p.m. EST and run until 2:10, and it should be a doozy to watch and a challenge to navigate the DFS landscape as we've got seven games with a total of at least 150 points, highlighted by Purdue-Iowa (169.5) and Alabama-Tennessee (162.0). And eight of the 12 come with spreads from one to 3.5, so we're going to get some narrow margins and heavy minutes from top-end players. There are enough games to stack, though the depth of the slate allows us plenty of options to differentiate.
Top Players
Norchad Omier, F, Miami ($8,500)
Omier isn't leaving the court barring foul trouble in conference having averaged 34.2 minutes the last five ACC games. He's turned in 16.2 points and 9.2 rebounds during that stretch, seemingly creating tremendous stability in a game with a narrow spread and 157-point total. Syracuse hasn't been hurt by ACC bigs as much as their lack of size would suggest, but they're allowing a 50.9 percent conversion rate on 2-point shots, rank 297th in offensive rebounds allowed and play at the nation's 37th-ranked pace - all things that should benefit Omier. Potentially boosting his ceiling is a 77.3 percent free throw rate that's recently been held down at 62.1.
Braden Smith, G, Purdue ($7,700)
We know Iowa plays fast and open as they rank sixth in tempo per KenPom, leading to the Boilermakers having a massive 89.0 point implied total, so shares of this offense are advisable. And with Zach Edey carrying a high salary, I'm more than content to take the team's next best option and move on. Smith isn't shooting well of late at a 32.7 percent clip across his last five. But he's still averaging 9.8 points and an impressive 7.8 assists. I think both can play up here as the dimes come with tempo and the shooting/scoring could be elevated with open looks thanks to pace. Smith's been valued as high as $9,000 and has shown 40-plus DKP upside four times so far.
Middle Tier
Felix Okpara, F, Ohio State ($6,600)
This is a bit riskier than I usually prefer given the rising salary point, though the current form from Okpara validates the value. In the last five games, he's averaging 7.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks across 29.2 minutes. That's nearly seven more minutes than his season average, so it's clear the team is gaining confidence in their big man. The usage rate is paltry, but Penn State ranks 43rd in tempo and that creates more possessions for both sides as they rank 310th in offensive rebounds allowed while surrendering rebounds to opponents on a third of their missed shots. They also average eight blocked shots per outing. It sets up for Okpara to do work on the glass, get stick backs and swat his current average, which can get us to 30 DKP for the third time in four games.
Nick Kern, G, Penn State ($5,300)
It's a bit of a bummer here on position eligibility, as Kern has moved into the starting lineup at the three-spot but we don't get forward eligibility. The current play and low salary is enough for me to make this portion of the column a bit unbalanced. Kern has topped 20 DKP in three of his last five with a 17.0 DKP floor and 23.5 DKP ceiling. Not a slate-breaking target, yet a useful player at a fair value who should give us a 3x return at worst and operate as the glue guy in our builds.
Bargain Options
Ithiel Horton, G, Texas ($4,500)
This play comes with the caveat we must be certain Horton draws the start. He's been quite productive in the first five appearances this season by averaging 15.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 steals over 28.6 minutes. The problem is three of those five starts came in the Longhorns' first three games of the year. Horton started last time out against UCF and performed well again while seemingly earning further opportunities. The game script here is very positive and it's honestly one where I wouldn't hate a stack due to low salaries across the rotation, though Horton has shown the potential to blow this value out of the water with consistent minutes. This game tips at noon, so you'll need to be quick and adjust accordingly if he's back to a reserve. Arkansas' El Ellis is a fine pivot and in the same boat as he needs to start, with his matchup tipping off at 1:00.
Jacobi Wright, G, South Carolina ($3,700)
Let's be clear, the Gamecock offense isn't a must-use on this slate and Wright has logged 28 and 29 minutes in his last two, so maybe a potential role change isn't in store. But USC will be playing without Myles Stute for the first time after he suffered a shoulder injury, so it seems likely Wright steps into the starting rotation. Stute was the team's third-leading scorer, and Wright seems more capable and likely to assume that role than Zachary Davis, who's so far proven incapable of meaningful production. And Wright comes at a lower salary, making him a near punt. We never know what to expect from Arkansas, though they've allowed at least 76 points in all four conference games. If hellbent on using a Gamecock and you desire more stability, this has to be a safe spot for Meechie Johnson.
Afternoon Slate
We tip here at 2 p.m. EST, though no games overlap the main slate. There's a $2,000 prize pool for a $10 entry, and only 237 other spots available. So while the $500 first-place prize isn't life-changing for most, a 50x return on investment is always a nice way to celebrate or simply practice honing your skills. Tipoffs here go until 5 p.m with 12 more matchups to sort through.
Unlike the main slate, we have only half of the games with a spread of less than 4.5 points where some teams could stretch things out. There are only two with point totals north of 150, led by North Carolina-Boston College at 157.5. Houston-UCF can largely be ignored, particularly on the Knights' side as they are 16.5-point underdogs in a game with a minimal 126.5 implied total. All others at least sit close to 140.
This slate certainly looks like one where a stars-and-scrubs build can be more beneficial than going with balance. There's minimal reason to not plug in one or both of Kansas' Hunter Dickinson and/or Kevin McCullar. Southern Cal's Kobe Johnson would appear as another virtual must-play if Boogie Ellis continues to be sidelined.
Top Players
Isaac Jones, F, Washington State ($8,200)
If current form holds, Jones makes for a terrific anchor and pivot from the Jayhawks big duo. He's averaged a whopping 24.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 30.6 percent usage rate across 35.0 minutes in his last three games. We've got a Cougars team with a projected total of 73.5 points and a narrow 2.5 point spread, so Jones will feature heavily in a matchup with adversary big Fardaws Aimaq.
Harrison Ingram, F, North Carolina ($7,200)
Ingram seems to offer us a safe option into the team with the slate's highest-implied point total. He's taken at least nine shots in five straight. And while they aren't falling as much as he'd like, he's averaged a decent enough 9.2 points over that stretch to go with more impressive averages of 10.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists. Boston College is terrible at defending the 3-point line as they give up a 306th-ranked 36.0 percent conversion rate, where Ingram takes more than four shots nightly. And if we assume Armando Bacot and Quinten Post battle each other on the glass and interior, Ingram should be freed up on the weak side to continue his high activity on the windows.
Middle Tier
DJ Davis, G, Butler ($6,000)
This is a horrible salary point for a struggling player, though that could lead to low roster percentages and give us a leg up if it pops. Davis is only 2-for-20 from the floor from his last three, but the teams he's played ranked no worse than 75th nationally in defensive efficiency - with two in the top-25. DePaul is anything but that at 277th, including 332nd in effective field goal percentage and 322nd in 3-point D, where Davis attempts an average of at least five shots. Butler is expected to score 83 points, Davis is the cheapest option in their starting five, and is overdue for a bounce-back performance. And let's not forget he averaged 17.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists in six matchups prior to this current slump.
Johnny Furphy, G, Kansas ($5,400)
Furphy should be forward-eligible, but I've immediately digressed. He started his second-straight game last time out in place of Elmarko Jackson, and provided a massive 32.25 DKP. His prior start only resulted 15.25 DKP, which can sort of still work at this salary. I don't expect Kansas to have much trouble with West Virginia, and this can be another opportunity to take an extended look at their emerging freshman. It's an interesting contrarian pivot to the Kansas starters mentioned in the intro. Perhaps use stars elsewhere and Furphy, or one of those two and Furphy together to add more 6-7K players to your lineup.
Bargain Options
Josiah Allick, F, Nebraska ($5,000)
Injuries are a tricky thing for DFS. Do we target someone on the cheap who can see an expanded role or should we pivot to a star who can absorb the additional production replacement? For this situation, I'll side with the former just to get us some help in the frontcourt. Juwan Gary will miss this game, and Allick drew the start in his absence earlier in the year. The problem is he only averaged 8.7 points and 6.3 rebounds across 27.7 minutes with a meager 12.7 percent usage rate. Allick hasn't started any of the Huskers' last five, but still averaged 20.6 minutes and topped a 3x return at this value three times. There's seemingly no room for him to grow here, but we could flirt with 20 DKP at a low number and help grab pay-up options as long as he starts.
Vince Iwuchukwu, F, Southern Cal ($4,900)
For as much as I want to go stars-and-scrubs here, I'm really struggling to find real value on this slate, hence two players at around $5,000. USC's rotation is in flux due to injury so this is no slam dunk, but Iwuchukwu has started three straight and averaged 24.5 DKP from his last two. Arizona State is undersized by giving up at least five inches, so there's a path to easy baskets and rebound domination with steady minutes.
Evening Slate
The final slate of our busy Saturday begins at 6:00 p.m. EST and goes until 9. It comes with a $1,500 total prize pool in the big tournament, but again a $500 first-place prize where you only need to take down 175 others if you enter once. While it only pays out 21.0 percent of the entries, the odds for a higher finish represent the best of the day.
10 games are included, making it a little more approachable and perhaps easier to identify the clear buy in spots. Three come with totals of 160-161.5 - two of which carry narrow spreads - but all seem equally targetable. Virginia is here, so we've got a paltry 125.5 total with a one-point spread where that game can't be completely ignored.
I'm going to go different below in the recommendations, though I think a wise build is to start with a Washington stack of Keion Brooks and Sahvir Wheeler, who are both under $8,000 and in a prime spot to succeed.
Top Players
Johni Broome, F, Auburn ($8,500)
Broome, for me at least, looks like he can be overlooked on this slate. Auburn is expected to score 83 points, but I anticipate the masses targeting the Washington-Stanford matchup at the high end while also probably favoring Tre Mitchell. Broome is averaging 15.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks over his last eight games while providing at least a 4x return six times. I don't love the value comparative to others, but Broome can do far more good than harm if we get lost roster percentages.
Sean East, G, Missouri ($7,300)
We've got a small salary dip from his $7,900 max and it looks like a solid bounce-back spot for East, who almost assuredly will lead the Tigers' attack in a game where they're expected to score at least 78 points thanks to Florida checking in 14th in tempo. East carries a seemingly very stable floor averaging 17.5 points across his last 12 games, but the four-plus rebounds and assists he chips in, the fact he rarely leaves the court, and the pace boost definitely projects some upside.
Middle Tier
Donovan Clingan, F, Connecticut ($6,200)
This is the evening slate's free square, or opportunity to fade the masses. There's simply no way Clingan isn't highly rostered at this salary, having been as high as $8,500 this season. His usage is always through the roof, with the 24.5 percent rate in his return from a five-game absence being the fifth-lowest all season. Clingan lists a 27.7 percent usage on the season. And while the game has a total under 140, he's proven he produces and should receive a minutes boost having proven he's healthy.
Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke ($5,600)
Duke's starting lineup is going to be heavily monitored heading into Saturday evening. While neither are seriously hurt, both Mark Mitchell and Jeremy Roach enter as game-time decisions. The fact of the matter is it's unlikely Duke needs to force either into 30-plus minutes to win here, which can allow Proctor to make amends for what's been a frustrating season. He earned 21.0 DKP against Pittsburgh two games ago, then returned to the starting lineup in their last outing and gave managers 24.75. That's not an elite ceiling that matches with Proctor's talent, yet that can be elevated if Duke is without one of the aforementioned bodies and the floor seems decent enough at the salary even with both fully available. If upside is your target, I have a lean on Georgia's Silas Demary for $600 more.
Bargain Options
Jordan Minor, F, Virginia ($4,200)
As noted in the intro, don't completely write this game off due to the low expected points. Minor has moved into the starting lineup and notched 18.75 and 28.75 DKP and 29.1 and 28.75 percent usage rates in those two games. He can go well under that and still help us as he only needs 12.4 DKP for a 3x return. Minor seems to be adjusting to the level of competition. And having averaged nearly a double-double at Merrimack last season, we can trust there's some skill set here.
Benny Gealer, G, Stanford ($3,400)
Simply a super low-end option in a high-paced game that can possibly give us a 3x return and more higher-end options. Gealer is averaging 17.2 minutes overall and has seen 20-plus in two straight and three of his last five while averaging 18.25 DKP in his last two. He's taken 14 shots over that span, but also posted nine assists to allow for multiple paths to at least a 3x return at this number.
