This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
It's taken about a month, but we appear to be settling on our expected loaded Saturday DFS slate, where we have multiple slates across different time slots and conferences. Lets get it.
Main Slate
We have an early tip Saturday with the main contest starting at 11:30 a.m. EST, assuming Nebraska shows up against Auburn after dealing with the flu earlier in the week.
Top Players
Alonzo Verge, G, Nebraska vs. Auburn ($7,500)
As noted, make sure Verge is not ill, as this game was rumored to be off earlier in the week due to a flu bug going around the team. But assuming all is even, it's tough to fade Verge's upside at this relatively affordable number. He flirted with a triple-double against North Carolina State en route to 57.75 DKP, also posting 44.0 DKP against Michigan. With only one game under 3x, there appears minimal risk and ample reward.
Justin Lewis, F, Marquette vs. UCLA ($7,500)
Lewis has been at his best against higher-level competition; expect to get the same Saturday. His 245-pound frame seems like a good matchup against a long, but largely guard-dominated UCLA lineup. The Bruins are an efficient defensive team, but Shaka Smart's system will speed things up. The high floor comes from the likelihood of at least 10 rebounds, and if he can impose his will on the interior, there's a big double-double waiting.
Middle Tier
Aminu Mohammed, G, Georgetown vs. Syracuse ($6,300)
I don't really understand this game's pricing. It's got the slate's highest total and narrowest spread, yet there isn't a player priced north of Buddy Boeheim ($7,400). The Hoyas seem to have far more value, however. They check in 29th in tempo, and both sides are sub-125 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Mohammed has at least eight boards in four straight, while scoring at least 13 in three consecutive games. Dante Harris ($5,900) is absolutely in play, but I'll pass on Kaiden Rice ($4,100) and his volatility.
Jalen Wilson, F, Kansas ($6,000)
Call this the gut feel of this slate. There's no debating Wilson hasn't played up to the standards he set last season, when he averaged 11.8 points and 7.9 rebounds. But his minutes are trending positively, and Kansas comes in as a 25-point favorite. This seems like a spot for Wilson to get ample minutes and garbage-time production against an undersized Tigers lineup.
Values
JD Notae, G, Arkansas at Oklahoma ($5,700)
Are we serious with this pricing? Notae needs a mere 22.8 DKP to return 4x. He could get that simply in the scoring column, but Notae has elevated his game this season to be more well rounded. Oklahoma's 247th ranking in tempo helps none, but the Hogs should at least impose themselves in stretches and bump that up. The only downside I see is a high usage rate. Chris Lykes ($4,200) is a lower-ceiling/stable-floor value.
Akok Akok, F, Connecticut vs. St. Bonaventure ($3,900)
To be clear, I like guys like Jesse Edwards ($5,300) more, but it's hard to ignore Akok at this price. The Huskies will be without Adama Sanogo ($6,600) and possibly Tyrese Martin ($6,700). It's opened time for Akok, who's played 53 minutes in his last two outings, responding with 46.0 total DKP. Sure, foul trouble could be in store against Osun Osunniyi ($8,000), but the price is so minimal, he doesn't need more than a few putbacks and some boards to return 4x.
Afternoon
A smaller four-game slate goes off between 5 and 6:30 p.m. EST and it seems to scream, use at least one of the top-three priced options. Michael Devoe ($8,800), Kofi Cockburn ($8,900) and Oscar Tshiebwe ($9,300) appear to be in spots to again put up massive stat lines. I'd fault no one for building around them, but for variety's sake, lets look at other options to balance a budget.
Top Players
Darius Days, F, LSU at Georgia Tech ($7,600)
Truth be told, I've been a bit underwhelmed by Days' work on the glass this season, but he's coming off of a season-high 13 boards against Ohio. He's taking 27.8 percent of the Tigers' shots, and seems to have an incredibly stable floor as such. Georgia Tech is tremendously undersized on the interior, just allowed a double-double to UNC's Armando Bacot and is in the midst of a brutal schedule that's had Wisconsin, North Carolina, LSU and then USC. I'm not sure they'll have any fight here.
Tari Eason, F, LSU at Georgia Tech ($7,100)
Let me be clear, outside of the three top-priced options, I really only like Days in the tier priced higher than $7,000. But I need a second option to diversify, so here's Eason. His averages are nearly identical to Days, and he comes at a $500 savings. He doesn't see the same guaranteed minutes, but he's more efficient with his opportunities. I don't hate the idea of pairing these two together if not paying up for the slate's big-three.
Middle Tier
Bennedict Mathurin, G, Arizona at Illinois ($6,200)
Price doesn't match form. Mathurin has had consecutive games with at least 41.5 DKP. That alone should draw all eyes, but pair that with the Wildcats having the highest implied total on the slate and there's not a lot to fade. We need a mere 24.8 points to get 4x, but 6x seems at least as likely.
Alfonso Plummer, G, Illinois vs. Arizona ($6,100)
Normally, Plummer is the exact type of player I stay away from in DFS, as he does nothing but score points. But with at least 21 in five consecutive games, he's doing so at such a high clip we can bank on a stable floor that should play up in a game where the total is huge and targetable. Kentucky's TyTy Washington ($6,000) offers more upside thanks to his all-around game, and is certainly in play.
Values
Prentiss Hubb, G, Notre Dame vs. Kentucky ($5,500)
Kentucky is long, but not so much on the perimeter, which should allow Hubb some clean looks from the outside. I also simply refuse to believe he's as bad as his senior season suggests. He remains on the floor for roughly 30 minutes, this game has a narrow spread and a fair point total. We don't need much for 4x, and Hubb was priced as high as $8,200 this season. I'll probably play him in DFS settings until the price rebounds.
Hassan Diarra, Texas A&M vs. TCU ($4,000)
This game has the lowest total by some 13 points, so it's one from which we're largely staying away. Further, the Aggies' rotations have been incredibly variable, so there's no stability in Diarra or his teammates. But he's played 48 minutes in their last two games, averaging 24.88 DKP. Diarra played only 34 total minutes in the team's previous three games, putting up 25 DKP total, so there's clear volatility, but he appears to be trending upward and is worth a dart throw for GPPs on the cheap.
Evening
Only two games are available for the evening slate, which makes it tough to differentiate enough in cash settings, so maybe throw a few darts into some tournaments after a hopefully successful day earlier.
Top Players
Marcus Sasser, G, Houston at Alabama ($7,800)
It's a clear contrast of styles, as Houston is 257th in tempo while Alabama is 22nd. I'm banking on Alabama forcing the issue, and the Cougars following suit, which should lead to Sasser being an anchor on this slate. Sasser has gone for at least 34.5 DKP in five games, and he'll be at the center of matching points Saturday night.
Zach Freemantle, F, Xavier vs. Cincinnati ($7,000)
I know he's atop the column, but he was my last inclusion as it evolved. There's a huge lack of frontcourt options Saturday night, and I assume few will be willing to pay this number for a guy who hasn't played more than 20 minutes to date. But he went off for 41.25 DKP in those limited minutes and should only be trending upward as he regains health. Pair that with hopefully low usage, and we have a big upside play.
Middle Tier
Jaden Shackelford, G, Alabama vs. Houston ($6,800)
Shackelford has dropped at least 14 points in all of Alabama's outings, creating a stable floor. Yet his price has dropped some $600 from it's season's peak. This limited slate forces us to stack a game, and this is clearly it. Shackelford is seventh in pricing and is averaging a 4.8x return.
Jeremiah Davenport, G, Cincinnati at Xavier ($6,300)
Although largely trying to stay away from this contest as a low-scoring slugfest, I think the Bearcats can grind this into a closer-than-expected final score. If you by my narrative, Davenport, who isn't a lock to play after missing the team's last game to an ankle injury, will be the centerpiece to their competitiveness. He's just behind David DeJulius in shot distribution, and Davenport's ability to perform in other categories gives him the nod Saturday.
Values
Tramon Mark, G, Houston at Alabama ($4,900)
This is probably the most obvious play on the slate. Mark has been eased into action due to a shoulder injury, but is clearly trending upward, averaging 35.6 DKP in his last two outings. In a game that should play tight and reasonably high scoring, expect Mark to be removed from any limitations and be a huge piece to the Houston attack.
J.D. Davison, G, Alabama vs. Houston ($4,700)
If Davison is going to be priced this low, he's going to be in every lineup I create; forever. He's still not starting, but seeing ample minutes for a team that is 22nd in tempo. The freshman has a 63.8 effective field goal percentage and can contribute in four categories. With an even spread and high total, Davison is almost a free square.
