DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

Main Slate

A seven-game slate is our headliner Saturday, tipping between noon and 2 p.m. EST. FanDuel even has five games overlapping, so we may be able to draw some value across sites, though not the intent. Five of the seven games a DK have a total between 136.5 and 139.5, so we should see ample variance in roster construction. Further suggesting different paths is a plethora of matchups where up tempo teams face grinders. Who can dictate pace will win, on the court and in our lineups.

Top Targets

Collin Gillespie, G, Villanova ($7,900 DK)

St. Joe's plays at the 62nd fastest tempo, per KenPom.com, and also checks in at 219th in defensive efficiency. There's an obvious blow out concern here, but it's hard not to take at least a piece of the Wildcats' offense, as they should cruise into the 80s point wise, though the lineup features four players priced at $7,500 or higher. Gillespie presents as the safest, having posted between 26.0 and 32.0 DKP in every outing. That stable floor is a nice anchor for both cash and GPP lineups.

Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD)

This slate is featuring a lot of price corrections working against managers; Davis isn't one of those just yet, seemingly still underpriced with a 5x floor still attainable. Davis contributes in four categories, and the Badgers' attempts to slow things down (317th tempo) surely will be offset by Marquette's full-court pressure and third-ranked tempo. 

Middle Tier

Jabari Walker, F, Colorado ($6,800 DK)

Simply put, Walker has four straight double-doubles, the last two of which were in conference, so it's not like he isn't battle tested in what's looking like a breakout season. I expect Tennessee to force tempo, and also spread out the Buffs, which should lead to some easy rebounds for Walker here. Pair that with the fact he's scored at least 10 points in every game, and there's reason to believe another double-double is in store at a fair price.

Santiago Vescovi, G, Tennessee ($6,300 DK)

Vescovi has a season-low of 20 DKP, while four times going for 31.75 or more. That comes thanks to his ability to rebound well from the guard position, make timely passes for dimes, but he also averages 2.0 steals and has hoisted at least 10 shots in every outing thus far. That type of usage and versatility creates a nice floor that I think plays up here. He's taken 51 3-pointers in six games, and Colorado ranks 248th in defending the arch. 5x seems well within reach.

Values

Cam Hayes, G, North Carolina State ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD)

This is my favorite game on the slate, but there are some pricing issues. Dereon Seabron ($9,500 DK, $8,400 FD) is a must play where affordable. I love Malik Williams ($7,100 DK, $6,600 FD) against an undersized Wolfpack front, but both players are heavily priced up. Enter Hayes, who's been between 22 and 28.75 DKP in his last four, and has the potential for a usage boost with Casey Morsell ($6,600 DK, $6,200 FD) questionable due to an ankle issue.

P.J. Hall, F, Clemson ($5,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Memphis' DeAndre Williams ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD) seems like the lazy/high used selection here, as his minutes are rising and he seems a lock for 4x. There's nothing wrong with him other than that usage. I like Hall to at least provide a similar return with lower usage however. Miami is a guard-dominant team, and while their front line has length, Hall has a solid 25 pounds on all the Hurricanes' can throw at him. He's struggled with fouls, so there isn't a safe floor, but he's incredibly efficient, shooting 55.1 percent. Miami ranks 221st defensively against 2-point shots, allowing 50.1 percent to connect. If Hall stays on the floor, he can match the 42 DKP ceiling he showed against St. Bonaventure. 

Evening Slate

There are only two games on DK's later slate, going off at 6:00 p.m. et, and it's got some stark contrast, with one game having a whopping 160.5 point total, 22 points clear of the other option. A weird contest for sure, as it's not a showdown, but almost is, sans the MVP pricing/scoring.

This section lacks ample breakdown of Gonzaga options. I'm not at all saying don't have multiple pieces there. They are absolutely going to score the most points on this slate. I'm more trying to differentiate, and offer options to add to a Bulldog build. Gonzaga still plays a short rotation, but the production pops off from different spots nightly. And priced up, the lineup isn't stackable nor fully worth chasing. Just a piece or two with the right options elsewhere for me please.

Top Targets

Isaiah Mobley, F, Southern Cal, ($8,500)

Truthfully, I don't love that Mobley checks in third overall in price, as I was hoping for a hair more value. But he's the clear best player in this contest, so I'm content to take the stud in the lower scoring but likely more competitive game, and and seek depth elsewhere. The Cougars do have ample size, which could push Mobley on both ends. He's been inefficient offensively, but a rock solid rebounder. The floor seems safe as such, and he's likely ligher used than top options in the other game.

Drew Timme, F, Gonzaga ($7,900)

This seems all about value. Sure, Chet Holmgren ($9,100) is an ideal target with a stable floor and ample upside. But Timme's current form has him discounted $800 from his last outing. He's averaged 36.8 DKP in three games against real competition, which the Tide should provide Saturday. That would provide a cool 4.6x return, ample upside for the number in the game we know we want as many shares as possible.

Middle Tier

Noah Williams, G/F, Washington State ($6,800)

I truthfully believe the lazy approach Saturday is going to be just grabbing as many 'Bama-'Zaga options as possible, so ownership percentages should be down here. I'm all for grabbing top pieces from this contest, and piecing together some secondary options in the more desirable game. Williams has had a 26.25 DKP floor since the Cougars' opener, which is only a 3.8x return. And the expected low tempo is cause for concern. But Williams' ability to contribute in all categories and serve as the team's alpha should offset that.

Boogie Ellis, G, Southern Cal ($6,400)

Ellis put up 33.5 DKP in his last outing against Utah and his price fell $900. That works for me! He's had one awful game, but has otherwise been worth at least 25.75 DKP all season, taking at least eight shots every time out. He's averaging 3.7 boards, 3.4 assists and 0.9 steals to go with his scoring prowess, and the opportunities provided from big minutes should offset Washington State's 45th ranked defensive efficiency.

Values

J.D. Davison, G, Alabama ($4,700)

Perhaps this game gets the best of the freshman, but for this price, I'm willing to bet on upside rising to the occasion. The pace will be frantic, and as long as Davison plays within himself, I expect he'll see heavy minutes on the ball as the game progresses. He's yet to start, a bit of a concern, but dished out 10 assists in 29 minutes last time out. As stated throughout here, I want to build a lineup around stable pieces in Washington State-USC, and chase some secondary upside in this game. Davison, and my next choice, fit the bill.

Juwan Gary, F, Alabama ($3,600)

In a nutshell, Gary starts and offers double-double potential at a near bottom price. That's great appeal that rises with he game's total and likelihood he'll need to play more minutes than usual to combat Gonzaga's size.