This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Saturday college hoops slate never disappoints this time of year, and this one is no exception, with compelling games lined up all day long. Steve Peralta highlights a few select matchups and brings you his best bets of the day.
Utah at 
Arizona State
The Utes ran into a buzzsaw on Thursday evening, facing an Arizona team that played arguably its best game of the season. Arizona shot 60 percent inside the arc and 50 percent from outside, an unbeatable performance, more or less. The Utes didn't help themselves either, shooting 30 percent on two-point shots and 33 percent on three-pointers, giving themselves zero chance of taking down Arizona for a second time this season. Despite the loss, Utah still has solid stats to back up its winning record. The Utes currently have the third-best defensive efficiency in the Pac-12 during conference play, per KenPom, while also ranking second in the Pac in effective field goal percentage allowed. The scoring output has been steady as well, ranking sixth in the conference in offensive efficiency. Given its stout defense and scoring ability, it's easy to see how Utah has already won 10 conference games. And luckily for Utah, Saturday's opponent is nothing like the Arizona Wildcats.
In case it wasn't obvious before its recent home loss to Colorado, Arizona State is in a tailspin. The Sun Devils have now lost six of their last nine games, with the only wins in that span coming against the bottom of the Pac-12, namely Oregon State, Stanford and California. And although Arizona State notched a win against the latter, it needed overtime to defeat a team that ranks last in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The pile of losses over the past month is bad enough, but it's also worth noting that the Sun Devils have severely underperformed against market expectations as well. Arizona State has now failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games, further underscoring the collapse that is unfolding before our eyes.
Sometimes fading a home team can be difficult, but Arizona State makes the task a bit easier. The Sun Devils have lost four of their last five home games and are 4-5 at home against Pac-12 opponents. They haven't played well for a full month now, and in hindsight, this is still the same team that lost to Texas Southern, a team that's ranked No. 313 in KenPom's overall standings, so it's not too surprising that Arizona State's stock has plummeted. Utah, on the other hand, has played better on both ends of the court and has played relatively well over the past month. I'm taking the Utes in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah +3
Texas A&M at 
Missouri
Texas A&M already crushed Missouri back on January 11, 82-64, and it's easy to see why after looking at how these two teams match up against each other.
The Aggies boast an exceptionally strong balanced attack, ranking second in the SEC in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency since the conference season tipped off. This is in stark contrast to Missouri, which is great at scoring, ranking fifth in offensive efficiency among SEC teams during conference play, but also extremely vulnerable on defense, ranking third-worst in the conference in the same span of time. Essentially, it all comes down to the fact that Texas A&M's defense is capable of holding down Missouri's offense, while the reverse is incredibly unlikely. If the Aggies' massive scoring advantage isn't enough, they also have a gigantic edge when it comes to rebounding. Texas A&M is among the best rebounding teams in the SEC, posting the second-highest offensive rebounding rate and fourth-highest defensive rebounding rate during conference play. This is again in sharp juxtaposition with Missouri, which is arguably the worst rebounding team in the conference, recording the worst defensive rebounding rate and second-worst offensive rebounding rate during league competition.
Considering the above matchup notes, it comes as no shock to see that Texas A&M won the rebounding margin 42-25 in the first game between these two teams. Overall, the Aggies have played great basketball for nearly two full months now, winning 13 of their last 15 games. There's always a chance Missouri might shoot its way to a home victory on Saturday, but ultimately I'm betting that the better team will emerge when it's all said and done. I'm backing the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +2
Stanford at 
USC
Stanford was abysmal for the first couple of months of the season, but it finally found its rhythm over the past few weeks. The Cardinal has won six of its last nine games, primarily beating teams by outscoring them. During conference play, Stanford has the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating among Pac-12 teams, while recording the second-worst defensive efficiency rating. Even worse, Stanford has logged the highest effective field goal percentage allowed, highest three-point field goal percentage allowed, and second-highest two-point field goal allowed in the Pac-12 since the conference season began. Its defense probably won't get many stops against USC, although it does have a shot thanks to its offense. Aside from the positive efficiency numbers, Stanford has been the sharpest shooting team in the Pac-12. During league competition, Stanford is making over 35 percent of its shots from behind the arc, the highest percentage in the conference. This is the ideal skill set for a team facing USC because the Trojans are somewhat vulnerable on the perimeter. USC is among the best teams in the country when it comes to interior defense, holding opponents to 42 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the second-lowest percentage allowed among all D1 teams. Perimeter defense is a different story, however, as the Trojans are allowing conference foes to make over 36 percent of shots from outside the arc, the second-highest percentage allowed. If Stanford wins the game, it will most likely involve a barrage of three-pointers.
USC's offense has significantly improved since the conference season tipped off, recording the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12. The Trojans' scoring has been especially pronounced at home, where it's scored at least 77 points in four consecutive games, including a game against UCLA, by far the most points the Bruins have allowed against a conference opponent all season. USC scored 97 points in its most recent game against California, so the Trojans appear to be firing on all cylinders.
The Trojans can induce high-scoring games for a couple of other reasons as well. First, they try and push the tempo whenever possible, playing at the third-quickest offensive tempo in the Pac-12, per KenPom. Second, the offense has several positive traits that also help this cause. USC has the best offensive turnover rate in the Pac-12 during conference play, in addition to also boasting the highest free-throw attempt rate and highest free-throw percentage.
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, Saturday's game is a good bet for a high-scoring affair. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 141
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Utah +3
- Texas A&M +2
- Stanford at USC - Over 141
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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