This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Fresh off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's picks, here are my selections for Wednesday's college hoops offering.
Louisville 
at Syracuse 
The Cardinals are coming off one of their better performances of the season, collecting their seventh win en route to snapping a six-game losing streak. Everything finally clicked for Louisville, as it dropped 101 points at home against Florida State. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, this kind of performance has rarely happened this season, and now it has to get back on the road.
The Orange, in contrast, is looking to snap a two-game losing streak after dropping both games during its road trip to Boston College and Wake Forest last week. Syracuse should get a boost from being at home, as it's nearly perfect at JMA Wireless Dome, winning 10 of 11 games while defeating opponents by an average of eight points per game. This trend has held up against league opponents as well, as Syracuse has defeated teams such as Pittsburgh, Boston College, and N.C. State by at least eight points, all teams that have played significantly better than Louisville. The Orange also defeated Oregon by 20 points at a neutral-site game in South Dakota in December, further underscoring its ability to defeat competent teams.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, we have two areas that give Syracuse a major advantage. First, when Louisville has the ball, it's struggled to score, ranking third-worst in the ACC in offensive efficiency during conference play, and it's particularly bad at taking care of the ball. The Cardinals have the second-worst offensive turnover percentage in the ACC and it's going against an Orange defense that has the third-highest defensive turnover percentage in the conference. When Syracuse has the ball, it also has an edge, this time in the form of free throws. The Orange are among the best at attacking the basket, logging the second-highest free-throw attempt rate in the ACC since the conference season started. This is particularly noteworthy because Louisville has had trouble with fouling on defense, ranking 12th in the ACC in defensive free-throw attempt rate. Based on these massive disparities, Syracuse figures to win various categories on Wednesday.
Louisville looked great over the past weekend, but I'm betting it comes down to earth when it travels up to Syracuse on Wednesday. The Orange has flashed potential throughout the season and has consistently played well at home. I'm laying the points with the Orange in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Syracuse -8.5
Wisconsin 
at Michigan 
Michigan is free-falling, and it's hard to tell when it will hit rock bottom. The Wolverines have now lost 10 of 11 games, and it doesn't seem to matter where or who they play. They've dropped their last three home games by double-digits, folding against the likes of Rutgers and Iowa. And perhaps more alarming, they've failed to cover in 11 of their past 12 games according to Action Network. Now, they get to host one of the top teams in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, is seeking redemption after losing back-to-back games for the first time since early November. Before this two-game skid, the Badgers were cruising, winning 15 of 17 games, so it shouldn't be too long before they got back on course.
In stacking these teams against each other, Wisconsin has a massive advantage when it has the ball. The Badgers have the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and they're taking on a Michigan defense that ranks 186th in defensive efficiency. As one might expect, Wisconsin has an edge over Michigan's defense in most categories, especially inside scoring. Wisconsin is making 55 percent of its shots inside the arc against conference opponents, the second-highest percentage in the Big Ten, while Michigan is allowing conference opponents to make 52 percent of two-point shots, the fourth-worst percentage allowed.
The other side of the court is also unfavorable for Michigan. The Wolverines are ranked 11th in offensive efficiency in the Big Ten since the conference season tipped off, while the Badgers are ranked seventh on defense. Michigan ranks near the average or below average compared to the rest of the Big Ten in most offensive categories during league play, giving us little reason to think the team will suddenly start playing much better.
I don't always like to pick a road favorite in a conference game, but if there's ever a time to do it, this is it. Wisconsin is extremely experienced, has played at a consistently high level for most of the season, and has already logged multiple road wins by a double-digit margin. I'm laying the points with the Badgers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -5.5
Nebraska 
at Northwestern 
These two teams enter Wednesday with similar profiles. Both are good at scoring but not too strong at defending.
Nebraska has the 34th-highest offensive efficiency rating to go with a ranking of 80th on defense. The inability to get stops is arguably the Huskers' biggest problem, but they also struggle whenever they travel outside of Pinnacle Bank Arena. Nebraska has now played in seven true road games and lost all but one of them.
Northwestern, meanwhile, has the 31st-highest offensive efficiency rating to go with a ranking of 93rd on defense. While the scoring numbers are good overall, the Wildcats have been playing at a higher level since the conference season tipped off. Against league opponents, Northwestern ranks fourth in offensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and it's leading the conference in effective field goal percentage, offensive turnover percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. And just like we'd expect, Northwestern has played extra sharp at home. The Wildcats have only lost one home game all season while defeating potential NCAA tournament teams such as Dayton, Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois.
Given these basic facts, I like our odds with Northwestern in this matchup. The Wildcats are the better-scoring team, and the Huskers' defense doesn't appear well-suited to slow down their opponents on Wednesday. I'm taking Northwestern.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern -5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Syracuse -8.5
- Wisconsin -5.5
- Northwestern -5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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