This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Fiserv Forum takes center stage on Tuesday's college hoops slate, where Marquette will host the Purdue Boilermakers in what should be an epic clash between two title contenders. Here are my predictions for this big-time matchup and one more intriguing battle going down in Tallahassee, Florida.
Hofstra 
at Florida State 
The last time I previewed a Hofstra game, I picked the under when they played Seton Hall for two reasons. One, the Pride is much stronger on defense. Two, it ranks near the bottom of D-1 in adjusted tempo. Thankfully, Seton Hall cooperated and Hofstra won, 49-48.
Since then, Hofstra pulled an upset on the road at Massachusettes, winning 75-71 in overtime, so the Pride is exceeding all expectations so far. Entering the year, Hofstra ranked 179th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and it's already shot up to No. 133. Not much has changed since I last wrote about the Pride. Despite being 4-0, Hoftra still has trouble scoring, ranking 171st in offensive efficiency. Luckily they are much stronger at the other end of the court, ranking 117th in defensive efficiency.
Florida State, meanwhile, began the season with a 3-0 record but got a reality check in its last outing, losing at home to Florida, 87-74. We never want to overreact to one game, but this outcome doesn't bode well for the Seminoles. The Gators were the first threatening team that the Seminoles had seen, and it wasn't even competitive. Florida had two different runs of 10-plus points in the second half, building a 44-31 lead at halftime, and then it closed the game on a 10-0 run after Florida State trimmed the margin.
Offensively, the Seminoles' biggest issue by far is outside scoring. Florida State is making under 25 percent of its shots from behind the arc, ranking 330th among all D-1 teams. A team can still win without an elite three-point shooter, however, this won't be so easy on Tuesday because Hofstra's defensive strength lies in the paint. The Pride is holding opponents to under 40 percent on two-point shots, the 17th-best percentage allowed in the nation. Hofstra is also blocking shots at the 31st-highest rate, further underscoring their ability to prevent easy baskets.
When Hofstra has the ball, it faces a similarly difficult battle. Unlike its opponent, the Pride has shown it can knock down long-range shots, however, it has a different problem, possibly a bigger one on their hands. Namely, Hoftra has been incredibly sloppy on offense, ranking 283rd in offensive turnover percentage. This is a terrible trait when playing Florida State because the home team ranks seventh in defensive turnover percentage. Additionally, Hofstra is getting its shots blocked at among the highest rates in the country, 322nd in that category, while the Seminoles are blocking shots at the sixth-highest rate.
Given the fact that both teams in the matchup are much stronger on defense and much weaker on offense, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. Also, Hofstra makes a concerted effort to slow the game down, which should help limit the total number of possessions. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 141.5
Purdue 
at Marquette
The Boilermakers enter Tuesday with a flawless 4-0 record, coming off what could be their biggest win of the season. Purdue looked sharp when defending its home court against Alabama, toppling the Crimson Tide by a final score of 87-78. The game was back-and-forth for most of the evening, that is until Purdue went on a 13-0 run around the 10-minute mark in the second half and never looked back.
Even though the Boilermakers no longer have two-time Naismith winner Zach Edey to patrol the paint, they still have stand-out point guard Braden Smith to lead the team. The junior was named Big Ten Player of the Year by the preseason media poll, so expectations are sky-high and he has delivered in full through the season's first four games. Smith is also ranked sixth on KenPom's Player of the Year standings, so the numbers back up the perception. In addition to its point guard, Purdue returned several other key players, ranking 44th in the nation in roster continuity. Considering last year's squad made the NCAA Championship game, this current group has a reasonable chance of again advancing deep into March.
Marquette, coincidentally, has a similar profile at this point in the season. The Golden Eagles also remain perfect with a 4-0 record, and they are also coming off a big win, a 78-74 victory at Maryland. And much like Purdue's recent game, Marquette and Maryland traded baskets for most of the game until Marquette went on a 12-2 run late in the second half. In any event, the Golden Eagles also boast a highly talented roster with a similar group of players that earned a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament before losing in the Sweet 16. Marquette no longer has point guard Tyler Kolek leading the charge, but senior Kam Jones has stepped up and excelled while taking on a larger role. Jones is currently ranked eighth on KenPom's Player of the Year standings, so his presence on the court cannot be overlooked.
When comparing these two teams, a couple of things stand out. First, The Golden Eagles are playing a more balanced brand of basketball while the Boilermakers are winning more with their scoring abilities. Marquette ranks 25th in offensive efficiency and 23rd on defense, while Purdue ranks third in offense and 61st on defense. The other item of interest is that the Boilermakers do a couple of things particularly well that should help against Marquette's relentless defense. The Golden Eagles thrive off causing chaos, ranking 13th in defensive turnover percentage, although Purdue ranks 83rd in offensive turnover percentage, so the home team will likely see fewer fastbreak opportunities than usual. The Boilermakers committed just three turnovers against the Crimson Tide, seemingly already in mid-season form.
Tuesday's matchup marks the third consecutive season that these two teams have clashed in November. Purdue won at home two years ago, 75-70, and then won in Hawaii last season, 78-75. As mentioned earlier, many players taking the court on Tuesday played in one or both of these past encounters, so these past two results perhaps carry more weight than usual.
All things considered, I favor the better offensive team, especially if it's getting points. I'm taking the Boilermakers and the points in this one. This is my primary play.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over given that Purdue isn't quite as sharp defensively as it was in past seasons. I believe it will still keep the game close, if not pull off the win, but a looser defense should elevate the point total to greater heights than we saw in their two most recent matchups. Marquette also loves to run, ranking in the top 16 of the nation in average offensive possession length in each of the past three seasons under head coach Shaka Smart. With a tempo like that, a high-scoring game is something that happens naturally. We'll see if Purdue cooperates.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue +3.5 and Over 153.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Hofstra at Florida State - Under 141.5
- Purdue +4.5
- Purdue at Marquette - Over 153.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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