This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference season has officially arrived. Tuesday's college hoops slate is loaded with marquee matchups that will undoubtedly have seeding ramifications come March. Here are my predictions for three select games on an exciting Tuesday evening in the college hoops world.
Tennessee 
at Florida 
The Volunteers are the last undefeated team in D-1, although there's a fair chance this will no longer be true after Tuesday, as their toughest test yet awaits them. Tennessee has won all 14 of its games, although only four qualify as quality wins, per KenPom. The Vols defeated Louisville, Baylor, Illinois and Arkansas, giving them a sparkling resume as they enter the heart of conference season.
The Gators nearly have an identical resume, having won 13 of 14 games, including four counting as resume-builders. Florida has already beat Florida State, Wake Forest, Arizona State and North Carolina. The Gators had an opportunity to win a fifth at Kentucky, but they lost in a track meet, 106-100.
When Tennessee has the ball on Tuesday, it will face a formidable challenge in Florida's defense. The Vols rank 20th in offensive efficiency compared to 36th for the Gators, although the latter doesn't have many weak points, if any. Florida is holding opponents to 44 percent on two-point attempts and under 29 percent on three-point attempts, yielding an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks 12th-best in the nation. Tennessee's best offensive trait is its ability to snag boards, ranking sixth in offensive rebounding percentage, but Florida is built to counter this strength, ranking 69th in defensive rebounding percentage. Overall, this side of the court is pretty even.
When Florida has the ball, we'll see a classic example of what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Gators boast the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in all of D1, but they must battle the team that resides atop the defensive efficiency rankings. Much like its opponent, Florida's best skill on offense is collecting boards, ranking fifth in that category, although Tennessee is also strong on the defensive glass, ranking 89th. The Gators also do a good job of taking care of the ball, 47th in offensive turnover percentage, an important characteristic because the Vols rank 35th in defensive turnover percentage.
Winning 15 straight games is extremely hard, and winning the 15th on the road against a top-10 team is even more difficult. The last time Tennessee went on the road, it faced a similarly tough Illinois team and trailed with under three minutes remaining before surviving, 66-64. All in all, the Gators are better at scoring, rebounding and handling the ball. I'm going with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -2.5
Arizona 
at West Virginia 
The Wildcats' season was on the brink of disaster at the end of November, losing four of seven games to start the year. Following its overtime loss to West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, Arizona has now won five of six games, with its lone stumble being a three-point loss to UCLA. The Wildcats were up by 11 points with 10 minutes remaining, giving them a 90 percent chance of winning according to KenPom, but then the Wildcats forgot how to score and lost. Either way, this team is playing much better lately, especially on the defensive end, where it now ranks 27th in efficiency. The Wildcats are coming off their best game of the season, a five-point road win at Cincinnati, and now they'll head over to Morgantown for a similar challenge. The number of losses is concerning, but it's important to remember that Arizona played one of the toughest slates in the nation, ranking 22nd in difficulty.
The Mountaineers, in contrast, have played well throughout most of the year, earning wins against Gonzaga (in OT), Arizona (in OT), Georgetown, and Kansas. Their only two losses came against Pittsburgh and Louisville (in OT), so they haven't had any big letdowns yet. That said, conference play should bring this team down to earth a bit. KenPom is projecting West Virginia will lose nine of its 18 remaining conference games, and that's counting a projected one-point win on Tuesday.
Even though KenPom projects a one-point win for West Virginia, a closer look at the matchup leads me in a different direction. Most college hoops fans are accustomed to seeing Arizona with a potent offensive attack, and this year is no exception, ranking 18th in efficiency. The Mountaineers offer a comparable defensive rating, ranking 15th in efficiency, although they have one major weakness that the Wildcats can exploit. West Virginia has had trouble securing defensive boards, ranking 203rd in rebounding, a welcome sight for Arizona, which has the seventh-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. The Wildcats have made over 57 percent of two-point attempts, the 35th-highest mark, so there's a good chance they'll convert their second-chance opportunities.
At the other end of the court, West Virginia hasn't played nearly as well. The Mountaineers rank 77th in offensive efficiency, noticeably lower than the Wildcats' defense. West Virginia has above-average shooting numbers, but it's well below average in other areas. Namely, the Mountaineers are not very active on the offensive glass, ranking 228th in offensive rebounding. They also don't draw much contact, ranking 281st in free-throw attempt rate. Arizona's defense ranks 140th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, so it's not likely we'll see many free-throw attempts for the Mountaineers, though we can't rule out the extra whistles that come with homecourt. Even still, Arizona has above-average defensive numbers in other categories, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and rebounding, making this an all-around stout defense, even though it looked shaky earlier in the season.
It's also important to note that star forward Tucker DeVries has not played since early-December, missing the team's last five games. His status for Tuesday's game is unclear, but he appears unlikely to return as of now. Still, it's worth monitoring. DeVries was the unofficial MVP (per KenPom) in West Virginia's overtime win against Arizona when they faced off in the Bahamas. DeVries posted 26 points, four rebounds, and six assists, a certified stat sheet stuffer. DeVries had played at least 30 minutes in every game before his injury, so his absence shouldn't be overlooked. The team hasn't lost a game since he's been out, but if there's ever a game where they'd want him back, this is it.
Given Arizona's rebounding advantage and strong offensive attack, I'm going with the Wildcats in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona -2
Nebraska 
at Iowa 
The Cornhuskers are coming off their best game of the season, an eight-point win over UCLA. It was Nebraska's fourth quality win of the season, having already defeated Creighton, Indiana, and Oregon State (on a neutral court). The Huskers don't have any bad losses, losing to just Saint Mary's and Michigan State, and their schedule ranks 88th in difficulty, giving them a respectable resume as conference season heats up.
The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, just had their worst game of the season, allowing 116 points at Wisconsin in a 31-point loss. We never want to overreact to a bad performance, but in this case, this was not a fluke. Sure, Wisconsin caught fire in their matchup, but it's also true that Iowa's defense had warning signs going into the game. Iowa played an incredibly easy non-conference slate, ranking 353rd in difficulty, so its major defensive issues have only been illuminated against better opponents. Iowa has played four opponents in the top-80 of the nation in offensive efficiency, and the Hawkeyes lost all four games. Nebraska ranks 75th on offense entering Tuesday.
Interestingly enough, the Huskers are pivoting from playing against the best defensive team in the Big Ten in UCLA to playing the worst defensive team. It's hard to say if this will make a difference, but from a psychological standpoint, the Huskers are likely eager to face a defense that isn't hounding them on every possession. Iowa ranks 124th in defensive efficiency, so Nebraska should see plenty of open looks. Perhaps the biggest problem with Iowa's defense is that it's terrible in the paint. The Hawkeyes rank 305th in defensive rebounding percentage and they're allowing opponents to make 55 percent on shots inside the arc, 299th in the nation. The Huskers make over 54 percent on two-point attempts, the 96th-highest mark, so they should have continued success when attacking the rim.
At the other end of the court, Iowa's saving grace is typically its scoring abilities, but it has a tough challenge on its hands. Nebraska is playing defense at an elite level, 10th in efficiency, so Iowa will likely have a more difficult time than usual. Like many other elite defenses, Nebraska performs well in just about every area. They rank in the top 90 of the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Iowa is terrible on the offensive glass and getting to the foul line, so Nebraska shouldn't have to worry much about second-chance points or uncontested shots from the charity stripe.
It's tough to win on the road, but Nebraska has already shown it has what it takes to earn a gritty road win, as we saw in late-November when it won at Creighton. Iowa may find a way to outscore the visitors, but ultimately I'm betting that the home team's leaky defense will be its undoing. I'm taking the points with the Huskers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska +4
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Florida -2.5
- Arizona -2
- Nebraska +4
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
