This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The SEC/ACC Challenge tips off on Tuesday, with several big-time matchups lined up over the next couple of days. Here are my predictions for three select games on Tuesday's college hoops slate.
Arkansas 
at Miami 
The Razorbacks were humbled in their last game, losing by double-digits to Illinois on Thanksgiving Day. I previewed this game last week and picked Illinois, mainly because the Illini are much more balanced and Arkansas' defense hadn't really been tested. Well, it was tested on Thursday alright, as Illinois torched it for 90 points. The Razorbacks' defense fared a bit better against Baylor, only giving up 72 points in the loss, although they haven't faced much competition outside of those two teams.
The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are enduring a four-game skid, dropping all three games at the Charleston Classic before losing to Charleston Southern at home this past Saturday. The last outcome is by far the most concerning. Miami faced quality opponents in all three games of the Charleston tournament, but the Buccaneers were 0-7 against D-1 teams before winning at Miami, catapulting them from 317th in overall efficiency up to 301st. A bad loss, to say the least.
In looking at Miami's profile, it's easy to see why it's struggling. It's not playing any defense. The Hurricanes rank 276th in defensive efficiency and don't do anything particularly well at that end of the court. Miami isn't bad at securing defensive boards, ranking 110th in defensive rebounding percentage, but otherwise, it ranks below average in causing turnovers and field goal percentage allowed. The Hurricanes' only saving grace is their offensive attack, which ranks 25th in efficiency and near the top in several categories. Miami ranks 22nd in effective field goal percentage, 27th in offensive turnover percentage, and eighth in free-throw percentage. The Hurricanes are also making over 36 percent from behind the arc. This team might not get many stops, but it knows how to score.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has nearly the opposite profile. The Razorbacks are best when playing defense, ranking 20th in efficiency, 22nd in defensive turnover percentage, 28th in defensive rebounding, and 28th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. They're strong in just about every important category. However, the same cannot be said when they play in the other direction. Arkansas ranks 73rd in offensive efficiency, 136th in turnover percentage, 287th in offensive rebounding, and 207th in free-throw attempt rate. Not the greatest numbers, although the Razorbacks are making over 59 percent of shots inside the arc, the 26th-highest percentage, an important stat because Miami has struggled to stop opponents in the paint, allowing 54 percent on two-point attempts. If there's ever a 'get-well' spot for a team that needs some easy lay-ups, this is it.
One other note to consider, both teams prefer playing at a faster pace. Arkansas ranks 35th in average offensive possession length, hardly a surprise considering coach Calipari's Kentucky team ranked 18th in the same category last year. Miami ranks 138th in average offensive possession length, a year after ranking 49th in the same category, so this trend should continue, especially given the Hurricanes' scoring abilities.
Overall, after weighing all the factors, a high-scoring output appears most likely. Miami has a high offensive efficiency rating, comparable to Illinois', so it seems capable of having a productive day. Arkansas isn't the best at scoring, but Charleston Southern just dropped 83 points on the Hurricanes, so the Razorbacks have a good chance of topping it. For these reasons, I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 155.5
Mississippi 
at Louisville 
The Rebels are coming off their first loss of the season, a thriller against Purdue in the championship round of the Rady Children's Invitational. I previewed this game last week and picked Ole Miss to cover for two reasons: its relentless defense and overall hot streak. Mississippi doesn't rank highly in defensive efficiency, 89th, but it's elite at causing havoc, ranking ninth among all D-1 teams in defensive turnover percentage and 13th in steal percentage. Sure enough, the Rebels recorded seven steals against Purdue and nearly pulled off the upset, building a seven-point lead with five minutes remaining before eventually losing on a last-second shot, 80-78. With the tight finish, Mississippi has covered the spread in its last four games, with three covers by at least nine points.
The Cardinals, coincidentally, are also coming off a loss in a game that I previewed last Friday. Oklahoma defeated Louisville in the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship, 69-64, with the Sooners in control for most of the 40 minutes. I picked Oklahoma to cover (+3), primarily because Louisville exhibited three red flags that I figured would cause it to lose. First, the Cardinals have a massive turnover problem. Louisville ranks 226th in offensive turnover percentage and 290th in non-steal turnover percentage, meaning that the Cardinals are suffering from unforced errors. The other offensive issue is its curious strategy. Despite making under 29 percent of their shots from behind the arc, the Cardinals are attempting three-pointers at the 13th-highest rate among all D-1 teams. This doesn't seem like a winning formula. And third, defensively, Louisville is lackluster at protecting the glass, ranking 226th in defensive rebounding percentage.
In looking at Tuesday's matchup, the red flags once again play in favor of Louisville's opponent. The Rebels' propensity to cause turnovers should haunt the Cardinals just as we saw against Oklahoma. Mississippi's ability to secure defensive boards, ranking 82nd in that category, will also come into play when the Cardinals miss on their three-point attempts.
When playing in the other direction, I should also note that Ole Miss has another ace up its sleeve. Louisville's best defensive trait is causing turnovers, ranking fifth in that category, however, as fate would have it, the Rebels have the best offensive turnover percentage in the nation.
All in all, Louisville's defense is solid, but Mississippi has the right traits to counter it. Additionally, the Rebels' aggressive defense should pay off against a team that struggles to take care of the ball. I'm going with the Rebels in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi +3.5
Kentucky 
at Clemson 
The Mark Pope era is off to a great start, as the Wildcats remain perfect with a 7-0 record. It's hard to find many faults with this team, with the biggest arguably being its lack of competition. Kentucky defeated Duke in the second week of November, 77-72 in Atlanta, but otherwise hasn't left Rupp Arena and hasn't played any teams worth noting. Even still, the Wildcats are playing a balanced brand of basketball, ranking 12th in offensive efficiency and 30th on defense, a good combination if it holds up through the season.
The Tigers, in contrast, enter year 15 under head coach Brad Brownell, and it's looking to build off its best season under the veteran coach. Clemson advanced to the Elite Eight before losing to Alabama, and with multiple significant players returning, it has a fair chance of making another run. The Tigers rank 93rd in minutes continuity and 14th in D-1 experience, so they're a battle-tested group, both in the past and in this current season. Clemson traveled to Boise on Nov. 17, where it lost its only game, before traveling to Daytona Beach, Florida, last week for the Sunshine Slam Tournament, which it won after defeating San Francisco and Penn State on back-to-back days.
In comparing these two teams side-by-side, they have many similarities. Both are good on both ends of the court and neither has displayed any major issues. Both defenses rank highly in most categories, however one critical difference is that Clemson is more aggressive. The Tigers rank 39th in defensive turnover percentage, significantly better than the Wildcats which aren't causing much chaos, ranking 261st in the same category.
On the other end of the court, both teams are again great in many areas, although Clemson outshines Kentucky on the glass. The Tigers rank 35th in offensive rebounding percentage, again much better than the Wildcats, which rank 183rd in the same stat.
Given the homecourt advantage and its various strengths, I like Clemson's odds of coming out on top. I'm taking the Tigers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Clemson +2
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday, December 3:
- Arkansas at Miami - Over 155.5
- Mississippi +3.5
- Clemson +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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